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[superg1] 02/1/2015 16:42

Technically yes, but it ended about 2am on the 1st for me. Decs down and the rest of the mince pies in the bin, along with 3.7mt of cheese and biscuits.

[1madmarky] 02/1/2015 16:36

I believe that the mobiles will work, but they will need to tweek each one in turn as the chemistry of the brine will be unique. This is not an issue as long as the chemistry is consistent. Just hope that the promise of higher ppm's comes to pass with reasonable bpd.
Just have to wait.... I Hate having to wait!
GLA

[crosseyed] 02/1/2015 15:57

superg,
I believe that there are 4 more days to the end of Christmas:}
Happy Epiphany.
c

[madchick] 02/1/2015 14:31

superg post 28347

Sorry, should probably have started a new paragraph - wasn't attributing to the parts failing at IO.1 necessarily (nor the operational problems mainly or solely to IO.1).

[superg1] 02/1/2015 13:42

Neddo

I assume that's because Christmas is over at last and nothing at all to do with recent exchanges :-).

356 days to go to the next one :-)

[neddo] 02/1/2015 13:12

goooooooooood god

[superg1] 02/1/2015 12:51

Yes I understand that sand

The point raised was will pods work, Yes they will absolutely.

Although io1 has never really been a fail, right from the off they reported how well it worked with 80% to 94% yields.

Io1 had the eastern europe pumps so those had to go.

Chesa changed the trucking company so for a while brine from the wrong. wells was arriving.

When io1 and 3 were sorted they were doing up to 1mt between them per day but not on maximum rates. So they work very well, but then came the frack boom.

Midstates had poor skim tech throwing millions away in oil, had IOF not joined them then maybe it would now still be that way.

The Midstates numpties got the boot too, and new tech was put in as announced.

With the fracking and upgrades there will be issues, but if you get a plant running on consistent quality brines.

In the non disruption period they got up to 97% yields at io2.


I'm not arguing about yields run times or issues. The question and points seemed to be around, will pods work.

Of course they will and at good sites with hot brine 95% plus yields.

So I'm just covering the do the plants work point, which is a resounding yes.

[superg1] 02/1/2015 12:33

re


They initiated IO.1 as a test plant. No-one was confident that it would work straight off. I seem to recall that parts failed more quickly than they expected. Operational issues I regard as part of the whole process - maybe there will be problems there, too.



Can you tell me where that info came from as to my knowledge they have never had any major problems with io1.

They had trucks bringing in brine from the wrong wells and at one point a chemical supplier changed their supplier. That supply change affected the chemical mix and yields but the problem was spotted quickly and the original supplies returned.

Io1 has been running longer and uninterrupted than any other plant, 90% plus run times.

Fracking and oil issues have been the main problem for io2, Gary and George created problems for io3 to 6. Most of which are now fixed.


Failed parts relate to eastern Europe pumps at io2, they immediately switched to US suppliers and have continued that way for the other plants.

[sandbag] 02/1/2015 12:29

Super,
In Post 28336 you explain what went wrong at each stage and that the plants do work. You end by commenting on your research. I'm not arguing with anything you say but you're the first to admit that the professionals don't do enough research. Therefore to my mind they would see the following:
IO1 - fail
IO2 - fail
IO3 &IO4 - fail
IO5 & IO6 - fail
The graph would appear to support this view.
The professionals don't have the time or inclination to look further and that's why I would like to see an RNS stating that a mobile has been manufactured and put in place. Initial results are so good that we are now ordering another 9 plants immediately (Or words to that effect)

[bogg1e] 02/1/2015 12:09

Fair play madchick. Its an interesting decision for Lance as to how to roll out and at what pace. Hes spent a frustrating year getting things on track and getting cash back into the accounts. He doesn't want to risk that financial cushion any more than he has to. So if 1 test mobile it is, then i wont complain.

[che7win] 02/1/2015 12:07

che7win 24 Dec'14 - 10:08 - 1036 of 1043 0 0 edit

TPL - it's an oiler but looks fantastic value right now at 11p.


TPL - now 13.75p to buy, should rise a lot more over from here.

[bogg1e] 02/1/2015 12:07

Indeed, its just a question of a plan A or plan B. Hopefully Plan A, which would be post water permit and is expected to bring a lot more money to back it than a plan B, which would be more prudent. As stated, if a plant can produce 1 ton per day then a plant must be capable of purifying 1 ton per day. There are 6 plants with a combined purifying capacity of about 2000 tonnes. So that means the plants have 1400 tonnes per year spare capacity for 2015. Mobiles are a cost effective way to fill that gap. Im hopeful for a plan A, after allplan B would probably be no more than say 5 mobiles for 2015, with the remaining cash possibly being used to expand IOC to match the increased rate of production, ie slower but stable expansion on equal fronts.

[madchick] 02/1/2015 12:06

superg - I've read the same RNSs as you have. You appear willing to believe that it will all work perfectly immediately. I'm not. We just have different conclusions to the same, or similar, limited knowledge (agreed, much of my "knowledge" has come from you, for which I'm grateful).

They initiated IO.1 as a test plant. No-one was confident that it would work straight off. I seem to recall that parts failed more quickly than they expected. Operational issues I regard as part of the whole process - maybe there will be problems there, too.

Additionally, I'm not sure we would know of problems that were already inherent in the current plants - Lance COULD be just putting the emphasis on the old team's mistakes and then silently correcting other pre-existing errors at the same time.

They started IO.1 as a test plant. I would like them to do the same with the mobiles. That's all. I'm not saying the mobiles won't work, I'm just saying that caution should be exercised.

Anyway, it's not really worth arguing about (I just get a bit annoyed at the insinuation that I don't know anything, which was may be not the spirit in which it was intended and may be more indicative of my failing / insecurity). It's all in IOF's hands and no amount of debate is going to give us the answer.

Sorry if I'm ranting - not a very elegant start to the new year! :-)

PS. Boggle, yes, I guess having some mobiles up imperfectly is better than none, but my own view, FWIW, is that it is better to try one and get that running well before doing any more than that. I can live with a delay while they wait and see. But each person has their own optimism/pessimism scale and risk profile. That's what makes life, and these boards, interesting!

[joestalin] 02/1/2015 11:58

I believe that the compensation scheme for those who were suspended begins today. I would have thought that the compenation should be passing in the opposite direction.

[superg1] 02/1/2015 11:31

Do you recall the io4 and io5 start up farce when they were waiting for 'regulatory approval' that cost a few months of production.

It was because a chief numpty, even though it had been spelt out to him as essential failed to get the approval sorted. So plants were then sat idle waiting for the approval process.

The only approval process that fits is the DEA authority to produce iodine.

So all the new team have been doing for months, is fixing things that the majority of should never have been an issue in the first place.

Some plants are not where they would like them to be as better sites were available, but that's the nature of numpties.

The plan now is to exploit the best possible sites for the highest returns and lowest opex.

[bogg1e] 02/1/2015 11:00

madchick, im not tempted to believe the mobiles will work at 100% efficiency out of the box. But even say 5000 bpd and 400 ppm will be a good earner, even if the mobile is at 50% efficiency in the first few months of operation.

[superg1] 02/1/2015 10:54

The plants do work.

At io1 they had issue with the transport company not bringing in the right brine, some had no iodine in it.

Io2 problems were mainly due to the operators inefficient oil removal tech, which has now been sorted. At times 500bp plus of oil was coming in with the brine. That problem increased when the old team rather stupidly removed filters, that's why they had the shut down at the end of 2013.

The other issue was brine quantity due to frack disruption.

Io3 and 4

Mainly frack disruption but a gravity feed problem at io4 which has since been fixed by the operator with a booster pump.

io5 and 6.

Once more the brilliant old team made a couple of changes meaning yields would go down when brine volumes go up. That has or is being fixed.

So since Q1 the new team have been fixing all of those issues as stated in news. It is absolutely right they should fix those and optimise them before trying to move on.

Mini plants work fine, they don't do the final crystallising process but produce a concentrate which is finished off at the main plants.

They are just a smaller version of the big plant minus the end process.

IOF will have been in cost cutting mode losing any plant parts they don't need or tech advances mean some parts are obsolete, which already happened between io1 and io2.

Some time back some city folk were calling io2 a 2nd hand plant. A basic error it's new and higher spec than io1. The 2nd hand part is just the chemical storage tanks and buildings on site which are now the grand old age of 3.

So when I say research I mean the above, which is only a fraction of it.

[superg1] 02/1/2015 10:38

Mad

The mobiles came first the large plants are scaled up versions of minis.

When I say research I mean talking to the CEO at the time and it was an answer given by the CEO way back when the questions were being asked whether plants would work.

Similar plants exist in Chile and the US (with the Japanese). It is the chemical removal process that is the game changer.

[madchick] 02/1/2015 09:12

No amount of research will tell anyone whether these mobiles will work straight off or not. Experience - IOF's experience - seems to indicate that nothing ever works smoothly first time round.

I'd love for it all to work well, but for the sake of sanity, it's maybe best to assume they won't and that's what I believe IOF should also assume. Just my opinion (based on what I know / have experienced).

The plants were based on the original mobiles that never worked properly. The plants have been tweaked and optimised, with many changes (it wouldn't take a year or so otherwise) since. Do those tweaks really translate back into the mobiles? Is the chemical mix really directly proportional? Maybe there is great blockage risk with a more portable design? I don't know. I imagine IOF have thought of much more than I can, but to assume they've thought of everything, I think, would be a mistake.

Anyway, it's true, to an extent this is pointless because IOF will do what they will do, superg's done all the research on the water, so there's nothing to say there, and I'm just champing at the bit and really wanting 2015 to go well. Please!!

[superg1] 02/1/2015 08:40

They started with mobiles, and the same questions arose re would the main plant work.

The main plant idea was proven to work on smaller versions.

The chemical mix to extract the iodine in the main trick, the process up to that point isn't a lot different.

Mobiles don't include the entire process, so if we are looking for opinions but based on research, then the will it, won't it exchange is pointless.


They talked of minor design changes to 2 minis which they called IOA and IOB, so it seems they had two in mind and near model completion, months ago.

In H2 they have been concentrating on getting costs down and the current plants optimised.

[monty panesar] 02/1/2015 08:34

Not that it matters a lot but historically the water permit website often gets updated late on a Friday so we might get confirmation of a hearing date this evening.

[madchick] 02/1/2015 07:45

I agree with sandbag - the mobile plants are different from the plants, by definition, and any change to anything brings with it the risk of mistakes or unforeseen knock-on effects. I would be shocked if IOF just do a roll-out without even checking and tweaking one in the field first.

How long has IO.1 been going - they'd tested that extensively and failed a few times and for most of 2014 they've been - and still are - tweaking the plants. I'm sceptical that by contrast, a mobile plant will work just like that.

This is why I - like others here - would really like to see one being tested in real life as soon as possible, especially since funds aren't an issue. However, I guess we will have to wait if the plants are still being experimented with. It's a bit frustrating, but as long as it's all good in the end...

[naphar] 01/1/2015 21:38

Bogg1e
Your confidence is interesting. I am still wondering how you come to the conclusion they had about $20M cash at bank or equivalents at year end just gone?

[bogg1e] 01/1/2015 21:12

Sandbag, I agree with the more cautious approach. I would love to see IOF order 10 mobiles, but the fact is, with limited suppliers (in my notes i have two Stateside suppliers, there could be more), then I doubt whether more than 3 moviles could be manufactured at the same time, so i imagine more of a continuous roll out, If they order in batches of say 2 at a time, each taking 3 months to manufacture and get into production, then thats three months to tweek the first two to ensure that the next pre-ordered batch is up and running much faster. My concern is not around whether the technology will work, it will, its been proven in the IO plants, Im more concerned about manufacture lead times. Weve seen before that IOFs suppliers do have large order backlogs due to the fracking boom etc. I hope this is not a concern this time around. However Id like to see a rolling order in place so that by the end of 2015 we have 8 or so mobiles in production. I estimate a pay back period of about 6 months per mobile at current iodine prices, which will obviously improve as the price of iodine rises, so the money is there, both in cash + loans + profit from this years operations. I want to to see serious growth based on well chosen mobile sites this year.