Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[hurricane.] 16/12/2014 17:02

The late flurry the last of the forced seller?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/12/2014 16:53

Well get used to the 20's and chat about things.

[woodpeckers] 16/12/2014 16:53

Thanks for that mick.

[micknickbanny] 16/12/2014 16:44

This is a snippet of an email reply I received from Lance re some concerns I had. Whilst not being able to be more specific he is obviously of the opinion that Iofina is continuing to improve substantially, " The Company has made great progress in the past 6 months and continue to make great progress on the variables and things the Company can control."

[superg1] 16/12/2014 16:10

Che

Nice one. Good to see someone put the effort in then come to the same conclusion posted all along. I can tell by your post you did your research.

If you are thinking of the bakken water side check out searches around slick water which looks to be the new technique boom coming in the bakken. I say new, but it's an old method.

[che7win] 16/12/2014 15:51

"kattatogaru 16 Dec'14 - 14:00 - 28027 of 28037 1 0

Che7win, fracking wells don't run for 30-40 years:"

kattatogaru,
be careful making bold statements like that, I do research for hours and hours, when I say something I say it after research.

I have put in 100's of hours of research in the past few weeks - believe me.

I am no expert in the field, never have called myself one, but if I state something I have evidence to back it up, usually from at least 2-3 sources.

As superg says, we operate in a sweet spot, it is the fringe areas where costs are going to be highest. You think of those falling freight rates for train haulage if production tails off...

The wells that supply us are extremely salty and yes, they do last 30-40 years lifespan, I have read this from many sources.

I'm satisfied that it's true.

Yes, you are correct, the oil rate does decline fast, but water is a different matter altogether, go research it.

Besides that, you neglect to think about the refracking which needs to be done on an ongoing basis and in addition, you are forgetting that IO2 is piped into a 100-mile pipeline owned by the O&G operator.

Some reading for you for - I have better examples for our wells elsewhere:

[superg1] 16/12/2014 14:48

I like iodine and it's been explained enough times re it's unique properties and growing use.

Take nano and the world conquering q dots. Before they get to market it is already being declared as technology that will be replaced.

I watch QMC in the US which have cadmium free dots and they put news out on the topic. Q dots won't be world conquering but with only two coming at it from the right direction they are well placed.

Once they get mass market lower prices on oled q dots start to disappear re screens.

[superg1] 16/12/2014 14:38

Joe

It's called fair value under TO rules. Fair value when you tot up the brine leases and technology is well above the share price so a non starter.

On that topic in the video Tom talks of high Ppm and higher bpd sites. For every one they add opex will come down. In fact it time if the sites are so good then personally I would drop the likes of io1.

A reverse scenario to most where the fringe gold has been exploited by some plants with the rich veins to be added.

[orslega] 16/12/2014 14:28

Mr Big - early Xmas present 200,000 @ 27.5p buy

[roger melly] 16/12/2014 14:28

ok Who just bought 200k shares?

[joeblogg2] 16/12/2014 14:25

At this depressed price are we vunerable to an oppurtunistic bid?

[superg1] 16/12/2014 14:23

The steep decline in such plays is exactly why there would be a bounce.

Many companies will be selling much of their oil over 90 dollars well into next year and they have to meet those contracts.


What will happen is that the wild catting and fringe development will drop away with small companies struggling.

Eg in te case of slick water (high volume water) Oasis reported 35 to 50 percent increased production per well. Liberty reported 100 to 200 percent.

Oasis did 4 wells and now state they will do most of their wells next year with the slick water method. They forecast they will so 70 to 90 percent of their planned wells. It will mean higher water use but much higher well averages.

In the case of Oklahoma if they stopped fracking tomorrow we would have a very good run of production through 2015. As Rug pointed out in detail the decline ratios are very different.

What's more where IOF plants are happens to be the sweet spot of the area.

[joestalin] 16/12/2014 14:20

At the risk of being pompous, time will tell.

[monkeymagic3] 16/12/2014 14:17

JoeStalin - Were all your top ups undervalued or now over valued? Hard to read through the pomposity. Thanks

[superg1] 16/12/2014 14:13

Trav

It may be worth you viewing the CEO interview with IG. 3 to 4 minutes in starts to cover the opex cost. 1 plant under 20 others over 20. The aim is under 20 (AGM comment).

They have one more or less exactly what they said for Q4. He did say he can control the business but not the share price, which of course is true.

They are on track re the iodine and the share price dropped away.

[festario] 16/12/2014 14:06

They won't stop drilling / fracking... because they can't do without the oil.
If they looked to import it (again), then that would simply put the price back up which is self defeating.
Fracking is part of a national energy strategy, not just a whim to nip in and out of.

[kattatogaru] 16/12/2014 14:00

Che7win, fracking wells don't run for 30-40 years:

"The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that about 29 percent of U.S. oil production today comes from so-called tight oil formations. These dense layers of rock and shale are cracked open by blasting water, sand, and chemicals deep underground, creating fissures that allow the oil to flow into horizontal pipes, some of them thousands of feet long. Production from wells bored into these formations declines by 60 percent to 70 percent in the first year alone, says Allen Gilmer, chairman and chief executive officer of Drillinginfo, which tracks the performance of U.S. wells."

So if low prices persist for a year, our frackers may stop drilling and we may stop getting sufficient brine.

[superg1] 16/12/2014 13:54

Trav

That's a variable depending on which plants are contributing. EG io2 is clearly a very good site so if that is a main contributor then opex is lower, if others are slacking etc.

In June they did 30.5 mt and talked of it being a month of profit. 24.5 mt in another month and they didn't mention profits.

So somewhere between those two on break even.

325 to 350 falls below 30 but 140 of that was H1. So for H2 if they hit 325 it's 185 mt for the period with a rate of 36 needed for oct/nov/dec. 41 per month needed for the 350. They were on track half way through the period.

Hence while the market is a complete disaster across all sectors, I see no serious issues for IOF they have been ticking over making forward steps not flying backwards like most shares.

How many companies are going to report increased venue this year... not many,and certainly no one in iof's sector other than IOF.

They could appoint the best PR company in the world right now, there is nothing they could do.

Good news on any share right now just seems to save forced sellers a few quid.


So probably anything over 30mt pushed through the chem div across various plants would mean profit. If you had just io2 doing the donkey work with others turned off, the opex would be a lot lower. That's why opex will come down going forward by selection of higher rate sites.

In H2 costs were to come down further, something like 2 mill as I recall for H2.

[joestalin] 16/12/2014 13:50

Then it would follow that I am not talking to you.

[monkeymagic3] 16/12/2014 13:45

Are you talking to me? I dont think its undervalued.

[joestalin] 16/12/2014 13:44

PR is a waste of money unless it finds customers for the product. If you think the share price is undervalued, then buy some stock. That is how it works, surely?

[monkeymagic3] 16/12/2014 13:42

Do you know who else little old Yellow Jersey work for?

NightHawk and Brightside ring any bells?

"We are an independent London-based PR agency founded in 2009; ranked in the top ten, and nominated as ‘Best Financial PR’ in the country.

First and foremost, our skill and passion lies in intelligent media relations supported by complementary disciplines suitable for both private and listed companies.

Yellow Jersey stands apart from the rest because we offer exactly what every client has the right to expect – the counsel of an experienced senior team providing a tailor made communications product that delivers on deadline and promise.

We thrive on a challenging brief, rolling up our sleeves and getting the job done. We do not hide behind email – we pick up the phone.

We appreciate the importance of a good client fit, and only work with businesses that we understand and respect. "

Thats alright then.

[woodpeckers] 16/12/2014 13:38

Dontshout, sounds like it could be a waste of money then. It really is frustrating though to watch a company with such fantastic potential sink to these levels when a little more communication could work wonders.

[monkeymagic3] 16/12/2014 13:37

See Che, i'm growing on you!

[cyberbub] 16/12/2014 13:33

Trav, remember the 325mt is based on very low output in the early part of 2014. A more realistic whole-year figure to base calculations on is about 600mt.