Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 09/4/2014 12:15

che agreed. 100 p is only a p/e of 20 for an eps of 5p this year. That is low for a company that, despite teething issues, will be a high growth stock. I'm still sticking with Lances comment that IOF would not be sold for less than £10 per share, so a ten bagger at these levels. If IOF can grow organically in 5 years time the share price will be very high indeed, £20+.

[che7win] 09/4/2014 12:03

Superg,
Can't see us dropping any.

Anybody who sold on the way down, eg below 60p will be really annoyed, I would think they have held off buying back and now they are feeling forced to bite the bullet and buy in.

Shorters also if they have been greedy will be seeing their profit disappear and will be closing out.

These were dirt cheap in the 70's a couple of weeks ago, I bought most of mine around these prices, still a bargain below 100p.

Water news would have these up 20p from here, there is strong demand in the background, I just wonder if Numis or others are sitting on good news, although we fell on very, very oversold levels.

Someone seems to know something.

[superg1] 09/4/2014 11:54

I don't know how reliable the general short chart link is, but it still shows about 3.5 mill short.

Funny how sentiment changes.

Water news pending and now at this price even if it was hearing news, then you can see my point that some would relish a drop to get iodine shares at a lower price re this current bounce.

I 'dread' to think where near term positive water news would take us right now.

[superg1] 09/4/2014 11:45

Looks like it was just traders at 71 and just tight stock creating the push up.

There was a massive dump of stock created by the aggressive selling of OM and 1 or two others, now they have gone it bounced.

Some claimed it was to do with a bail out.

Please note they go silent in such circs, you can't get them to react, but when it goes the other way, they don't react and don't post about their misfortune and the bulls must have insiders etc.

It is simply just a play on fear and emotion. I know that will be quickly forgotten, but if you have been IOF for any length of time, don't forget how the fear and greed system works heavily in the favour of bears on BBs when a drop is on. Gearing does considerable damage too on forced sells.

So now we look set to be in another trend of trading. I think Mr market will try and free up stock on year end results if stock is short, and the sell on news crew good or bad will lurk.

I imagine a duster is in action in the US resetting for the plan ahead, with a bit more direction and a more efficient execution. The high ppm sites haven't left the building they are still there ready to exploit and will be for the next few decades.

Thinking on the bears, I have studied their view on some shares, and certainly a few in the spotlight have fundamental issues which could be long term and company destroying.

IOF is far different, time lines and plans slipped, with the usual trip-wires of an expanding business getting in the way. It isn't fatal or a long term problem.

Like the bears I look at PURE and wonder when the gust of wind will blow the house of cards down. It will surely happen one day.

[crosseyed] 09/4/2014 11:34

Re those presentation notes:

H1 2013 Revenues shown as $13.7 million; figure in the Interims was $11.556 million. I wonder if that is a revision or a mistake.

13. Key Achievements
Building multiple plants simultaneously
• 2 plants to be completed in Q1 2014
IO#1 & WET® IOsorb
• Celebrated 1 year anniversary & successfully proved concept
Production from IO#3
• Plant up and producing iodine
First external sale of raw iodine
• Completed January 2014
Significant derivative margins achieved
• Benefiting from vertical integration with Iofina Resources


14. Iofina plc
– Recognized as leading integrated provider of iodine and iodine chemical derivatives
– Increased revenue and margins Iofina Resources
– Increase iodine production
• IO#4 and IO#5 online in Q1
• IO#6 online in summer
• Install mobile units at strategic locations
– Build prilling unit
– Ramp up sales of raw iodine Iofina Chemical
– Increase derivative production
• Add production shifts as necessary
• Add additional production capacity if required
– Increase derivatives sales
• New markets
• Expand partnerships to utilize Iofina's production and manufacturing integration


Quite a lot in the pipeline, then. The highlighted points on increased derivative production looks interesting, especially as they also mention significant derivatives margins achieved.

c

[stupidboypike] 09/4/2014 11:34

I suspect that Mr Big is feeling rather pleased. I followed in the day after your holdings rns as the logic was obvious. Well done Aaron!

Best regards SBP

[sportbilly1976] 09/4/2014 11:26

well that is the dip completed... I would say we now move based upon news

edit: although momentum looks as though this is going >80p today

[koolade] 09/4/2014 11:23

Enjoying this

[che7win] 09/4/2014 11:15

Superg,
Good point re SQM having dumped their high cost mines.

[sportbilly1976] 09/4/2014 11:13

that's a very weak sell side :)

[noli] 09/4/2014 11:11

L2 looking very good

[superg1] 09/4/2014 10:53

Che

The one factor that could really threaten Chile is a forging on productive IOF.

While we go on about their costs and in-fighting, they all know they are in the same boat, but all think there is no real issue as there is no other significant increasing production anywhere.

None of them other than SQM (by virtue of economy of size)has the ability to keep costs down into the lower levels of the sector.. All SQM have done is dump high costs depleting mines and delayed the high capex move to new mining areas.

Nitrates was one factor that helped but the cartel price drop issue that hit SQM hits them all.

That factor too has yet to fully embed itself into Chile iodine.


That's the way Che others and I see it. Thinking long term re the iodine market.

Well down the road Lithium iodide batteries may well be the lead in the battery sector. Lithium is abundant iodine isn't, in commercial terms.

[angel of the north] 09/4/2014 10:06

The 'place-holder' for this presentation has been there for weeks but only activated this morning.
hxxp://www.iofina.com/investors/presentations

[jointer13] 09/4/2014 09:56

report on water scarcity in chile.

[che7win] 09/4/2014 09:51

Superg,
Yes, I think the Chileans have walked themselves into a corner. A bit of infighting and competition has meant they now have to sign up long term contracts at barely profitable prices as they come up for renewal.

The presentation clearly states what you have been saying for some time on Chile.

Which one of them would sign up at $45 contracted prices over three years knowing that wages and power costs are rising at double digit rates? Maybe if they are desperate.
Your earlier link shows the problem, inflation rising due to the weak peso causing imported goods to become more expensive.

On top of oil costs, wage demands in a tight market will keep going up due to that inflation.

The peso recovered a bit last month along with copper prices, I wouldn't like to be in the Chileans shoes trying to work out what to do on contract renewals.

If I were in the Chileans shoes, I wouldn't be agreeing to contracted prices until they were at least above $50, otherwise they may find they are selling on contracted agreements at a loss.

PS: if any American companies are contracted into Chilean prices, they will be at much higher prices than currently available on the spot market. Say an American firm is mid way through a contract from a year or two ago at $65. Now say we start to have some raw iodine available over H2, we will be marketing that at least $20 below the $65, I think it might not be too hard to persuade them to buy some from us at spot prices...

[che7win] 09/4/2014 09:34

There u go, 90k buy.

Might someone know there is good news, feels like insiders are buying.

[superg1] 09/4/2014 09:32

Just need results out of the way now to move forward.

Water news has us all guessing re timing and result, but imo whether immediately or through the hearing process it will come.

As for iodine, the market thinks a flat price this year but I don't see that at all due to this list-:

Chile costs rising (Eg Power per 11% per year). Carbon tax probably going to force prices up.

SQM and co in total seem to have taken around 3500mt off the market (yet to affect the supply/demand circs) with a yearly forecast growth rate of 1000mt to add on. If I took a 5 year view that's 8,500 mt which is needed which is where SQM are at now.

Some tax incentives to be removed and 5% rise in tax.

Chile players got into a bit of a price battle to gain market share. SQM stepped to the side and let them take it. That suggests SQM saw the price the game was being played at as unsustainable and wouldn't want to be locked into such low contracted rates.

That was all done on the back of a weak Chile Peso (wages paid in pesos, iodine bought in dollars). Forecasts were that the Peso would weaken slightly further, but it has turned and data yesterday has helped strengthen it.

So if the Peso continues to strengthen, what margin, if any the others had when taking SQM customers is being eroded.

Algorta reported $10m profit H1 but forecast 3000mt for the full year, The $10m seemed to cover about 1000mt based on revenues and iodine prices at the time.

The price then was probably around $52-$55 v Probably an average of 45 for H2 13.

That potentially wipes out the profit, but the weakening peso helped them out.

So if that peso continues to strengthen, tax rise, carbon tax, the usual Chile rocketing costs, 3500 taken off the market being filled by iodine with no apparent margin, rising demand, then prices are going to have to rise.

That excludes that 150 litre per second rule which either forces reduced production for some or big capex spends to get a seawater pipeline.

That's why that rule is so significant in Chile. other sectors are way over the allowance and doing it anyway. It would force some iodine mines to reduce production, shelve plans, or make the capex and watch opex go up.

But with margins so apparently tight, the pay back for such expenditure will take many years.

So in all the Chile picture is firmly pointing to iodine price rises over the next year or two.

From IOF's point of view, get io1 to 6 going along nicely, prove it all up, treat those as the foundation of the iodine business, then move on.

[che7win] 09/4/2014 09:30

This feels like it's going a lot higher today, MMs happily soaking up the sellers.

There is underlying demand.

[woodpeckers] 09/4/2014 08:36

Thanks for the presentation link sg. The derivatives business looks to be doing very well!

"Three consecutive years of record sales – $ 16.1m in 2011 – $ 18.6m in 2012 –
$13.7 in H1 2013 • Profit margins have improved in the last three years under current management team"

[festario] 09/4/2014 08:24

Ha ha ha... Regulator? Did he just say regulator?

[rhwillcol] 09/4/2014 08:22

superg1: thank you for pointing that presentation out from Iofina's website. I look forward to having a good read of it.

[monts12] 09/4/2014 08:21

Regulator???? Ahahahhaa this is AIM my friend! Which is why People like TW can publish cr@p on multiple platforms, say they have no position and let their mates like the evil fat one short the cr@p out of it while they continue on the campaign of lies. Manipulation? Naaah the "regulators" would do something about that wouldn't they?

[nellyb] 09/4/2014 08:15

old mutual selling 5 million odd iof shares in sharp time.
if some had heard about this sell order on the grapevine they could have shorted this to the max with virtually no risk.
i presume the regulator monitors price falls like this one?

[superg1] 09/4/2014 08:12

Not sure how or why this has appeared but it's there




Fest good on Che, and it's basically down to personalities. There are very few that buy on the drop. It's far easier to be scared off than encouraged to buy.

[grahamhacker] 09/4/2014 08:08

Rns 27/3 States week commencing 21/4 for production update & results