Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 03/7/2015 20:08

The water narrative today is an interesting one from a valuation point of view. Perversely it may actually be earnings damaging to the group for some time and command little value until it, like the iodine side, can prove positive growth. While I'm not suggesting you'd be better without it in the longer-term, you may well find it proves a costly drag in initial years and as such any possible spike on positive appeal news may well ebb away quite quickly. A quick sale of this asset would appear to be the option of choice as it wouldn't hurt earnings and boosting the balance sheet by probably some millions in sterling terms is no bad thing in these testing times.

[napoleon 14th] 03/7/2015 19:31

So, this bloody curr still barking away & we're so bored
the conversation has turned to SBs & so on!

This has become a "forget" share until & if ever if makes sense...
Don't hold your breath!

[roboben] 03/7/2015 17:21

Nope! Still in!

Could even be looking to buy more if this continues much longer!

Shan't worry for now.

Enjoy the weekend, all.

[festario] 03/7/2015 17:17

Plumbing new depths today I see!
Sigh....

[roundup] 03/7/2015 17:06

Surely we can't be heading into the teens, this is ridiculous.

[superg1] 03/7/2015 15:47

Robo

As the Isa years embed many will have transferred right across. Nowt wrong with using SB accounts at all as you say you don't have to gear and therefore can never be forced to sell on a margin call.

[roboben] 03/7/2015 15:43

AWOL

I just don't have a clue when it comes to possible outcomes or the markets' reactions to them.

This way I don't have to!

I've lost quite enough capital over the years and do not intend to put myself in a position where I end up with none left!

This way I can continue to play the game when things are looking a bit clearer.

GL

[awolagain] 03/7/2015 15:32

Rob

I don't speak for SG, but I think he understands that there is/might be some new investors here who might be new to SB and see it as a way to make some quick money. I assume SG was sharing some news on the increases across the board from the SB companies, some because of the Greek situation and some not (III).

I am not far away from your setup myself....not holding any indices over the weekend. I do wonder if we will see the big movement that is expected. I think they will do a deal with europe, if not the military might take over....now that could be interesting!

GL

[roboben] 03/7/2015 15:13

SG - re gearing. (As I have said more than once before!)

Just because a company offers gearing it doesn't mean that the client has to use it.

I take the point that there are dangers in spread betting that don't exist for those who buy and own shares outright. Leveraged positions need more active management than fully paid positions and so new or unwise spread bettors could get caught unawares. This can happen to anyone and can be part of the learning process, but it doesn't have to be.

No sensible person would be heavily leveraged in long positions as this weekend approaches, given the Greek situation, unless they had spare funds to put into play at short notice.

I have recently downsized my positions for the summer months.
I have one account fully in cash.
I have a second account in which my only position is in OPTI - fully funded.
My third account holds my IOF - not fully funded. If the share price drops much below one penny I could be in trouble, but that's a risk I'm prepared to live with!

Not everyone who uses spread betting is as rash as you appear to think.

[awolagain] 03/7/2015 15:04

SuperG

No matter how it plays out with the JR the can of worms will be opened and things will change. Of course they can do it with confidence as they have 'real' buyers and a 'real' proposition and not some fantasy business idea!
It will make big news over there when the press get a hold of it and much noise from the oil companies....poo hitting the fan!

I trade indices with IG and got the margin note about this weekend....the SB companies looking to protect themselves and make some good money.

The increase from III is not just for the weekend, it is here to stay and not very funny! It makes one think about the value of SB on shares, if it goes against you is one thing but with such big margins it is scary bum cheeks time!

NAI

[superg1] 03/7/2015 14:07

Awol

They will do it with confidence as they actually have a contract to sell water. Ames and others have nothing.

In fact Ames sold to 55 people that didn't have a contract that is against the rules too. So yes, a can of worms.

Just did a quick search re IG re SBs and margins and noted this

Another risky weekend is coming up with the Greek referendum and the brokers are raising margins

IG index has sent out a note to clients informing them that they will be raising margins on into the weekend

"If the referendum goes ahead, there is the unprecedented risk of a large market move, or 'gap', over the weekend.In light of this, if the referendum is still scheduled to occur as at 4pm on Friday 3 July 2015, we will increase our margins from 4pm this Friday (3 July 2015) until 11pm on Sunday (5 July 2015)"


So margin calls will have been a big feature this week with a number of forced sells on many shares that may have investors exposed in that manner.

Along with a number of others selling shares knowing margins were being hit and others put at risk.

Then some just selling etc so a fair mix but a big imbalance on the usual average across the year re forced sells.

At the same time buying power is hit.

[awolagain] 03/7/2015 13:57

SuperG

I think they are going to end up in trouble with this JR...it is just going to open a major can or worms for so many people. However, it might come down to it in order to clear the air and draw a line under the past 'mistakes' and set the standard for the new applications that come in.
I think they will have to work with the oil industry to get over the LOIs...perhaps they will have to have the correct detail but only a director and HE are allowed to view the info or something like that.

I believe we will be awarded the permit and an internal 'review' will take place at the water board to 'upgrade procedures' etc etc....if you get the civil service tone of such a 'procedure'. It happens all the time, just bad luck we are the company that fell foul of that HE who decided enough was enough!

Thoughts?

[superg1] 03/7/2015 13:53

That geared topic.

Not IOF but all shares.

I was unaware iii put out a list this month re when they were going to up their margins.

On 26th June margins went up for them across a large number of shares including small caps.

Some popular ones I and others here mention.

IOF 80%

PRG 90%

OBT 90%

AGLE 80%

and many more Tung included.

Spresdex did the same for the 30th but I don't have the list. I don't have the before figure across the board but for some I understand it doubled.

So if you have a 40% margin needed that's £4k for £10k worth of shares.


So if you have a share of £1, and have £5k you can buy £12.5ks worth.

That would be no good as if it dropped a penny you'd be on a margin call straight away.

So use £4k to get £10ks worth of shares leaving £1k as cover. All is well as the price can drop as low as 90p (£100 per point before your £1k cover as gone.

89p and you are asked to deposit money into your account, a margin call.


Leave the price at £1, no move and suddenly the SB company doubles the required margin.

So that £1k cover is now wiped out and you have to deposit another £4k.

If you don't have £4k then that's it you sell or the company will close it.

In the run up to the Greek chaos the Sb companies have upped their margins and thus there were a large number of forced sellers as they don't have the cash to cover their positions.

While the large margins are in place they can't buy back the number they had either.

So I know of spreadex and now III other SB companies will have done the same.

So the forced sell comments are not fantasy, and I appreciate many don't understand SBs and margins, but it's fact.

Markets drop when the large dark clouds loom, and then to top it off they whack the margins up compounding the problem.

Ask Scrut he'll tell you, I think he has taken more than a his fair share of upper-cuts in that dept over his decades of investing.

[bobbyshilling] 03/7/2015 12:59

Cyber,

agree with your take also. IOF must lodge the JR as insurance unless they have a reversal of the permit decision in writing. Once JR is lodged hten the relevant authorities have to sit up and take notice.

[awolagain] 03/7/2015 12:30

Yes Rob...sorry!

[roboben] 03/7/2015 12:15

AWOL I'm reading JV as JR in your post above. Am I right?

[awolagain] 03/7/2015 12:10

Cyber

Yes I would say the same, is most likely we will informed of either next week....the JV is the insurance policy. I tend to think that not much will have happened regarding negs until they see if we are going to go down the JV road, once that was lodged then they would pay full attention as this is a first for them (or that is what I believe?).

Thoughts?

[cyberbub] 03/7/2015 12:07

PS I tend to agree with spideyy. The WB will probably try and delay any examination of their incompetent practice as long as possible, and then settle out of court at the last minute.How long? 3-6 months I would guess. I don't think it seems an excessively complex case that it would need a lot of preparation.NAI

[cyberbub] 03/7/2015 12:03

I assume the company will have 'lodged' a JR this week anyway, to provide a backstop in case negotiations with the Water Board fail? They can always cancel the JR if negotiations succeed, but they can't lodge a JR after the 30 days?Therefore logically there MUST be an RNS early next week to state either (a) the JR process is underway because the Water Board negotiations have failed (albeit negs could still be ongoing all the way up to a JR hearing), or (b) the negotiations have been successful in one way or another, and the JR is cancelled. Either would be significant news and would have to be RNSed.Discuss.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 03/7/2015 12:01

awolagain,

My view is these are not cheap based on 3p of estimated earnings for FY 2016, they are about right for now given the history. What I mean is they are for once 'on the money', a rarity here. Of course one can argue that compared to the consistent over-valuing by the market of the stock it is currently cheaper in relative terms and indeed in actual terms, nonetheless it's hardly cheap in the real world of valuing such things.

[spideyyy] 03/7/2015 11:54

Hi sg1.I recall from the AGM Tom felt it highly likely that the whole process to a JR would still happen even if at the last minute an "out of court settlement" was agreed-the shame being that no one knows how long this would take