Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ridicule] 05/6/2015 21:37

che7win Yes, but we need rapid investment now to scale up production and the current cash, coupled with debt repayment/rollover window just 24 months away isn't going to do it. I do not believe a farm-in, without using the water route which has just foreclosed pending an appeal, does it either. Current iodine production is so small by world standards, a farm-in partner would swamp us and probably rape us in the process. Hence my preference for a placing plus open offer.

[woodpeckers] 05/6/2015 21:33

bobby, why 'it needs a capital injection, ideally with the income from water'?

If you were a big investor and knew about this company's patented technology and the story of the other world producers', would you not see it as an opportunity to fast track production with a relatively small cash injection, giving you an opportunity to monopolise the iodine market? I'm surprised we don't have people knocking on our door wanting to jv.

[che7win] 05/6/2015 21:08

Ridicule,
We have $7m cash sitting on the balance sheet, so a net £8m debt.

[woodpeckers] 05/6/2015 21:06

madchick, completely agree with your post.

It was me that pointed out that they have always stated strongly that the two businesses and their finances are separate. I still believe that, which is why I am hoping that they are going down the farm-in route.

che, I agree, "we have a very careful management here, they just aren't in the business of taking undue risks." - they've learnt lessons, thankfully. I see no reason why the farm in route isn't a very likely option for the company to take, in order to get up to speed so that they are 'ready' when the iodine price takes off as it surely has to.

It's easy to get caught up on days like today with 'what might have been'. It would certainly have given us a great cushion had things gone our way. However, it didn't. So let's pick ourselves up, shake off and remember what this company is all about.

IOC is going great guns, that is fact. Bobby, I can't agree with your comment "It is no good iodine prices recovering if we are only producing 700mt per year, some of which will be used for our own consumption" - this company is all about vertical integration. That is why we have record revenue despite falling iodine prices. We have a patented technology which enables us to produce iodine at a price which others most can't compete - fact. The vertical integration with IOC gives us a further competetive advantage.

Today is another set back, I'm not denying that, but it doesn't alter the facts.

We have proven, patented technology which gives the company something no other company in this struggling sector has so we really should be in the driving seat when it comes to looking for investment in order to expand the businesss.

[bobbyshilling] 05/6/2015 21:04

Che7win, if iodine trends up from here over the next year it would be great, but we are not producing enough and cannot substantially increase what we produce without more (for now, portable) units. We might get more ppm from the static units, but that will be insignificant in the big picture with only six (at most) on line. We need more units, portable or otherwise and they need to be paid for. Income from water will make that scenario happen. They need to wait for the outcome of their appeal and hope it goes in our favour, or raise money in some other way in order to expand. That is my view, and I am not being a bear, just saying it as I think. Water would have been quick money for expansion, even quicker with a JV. All is not lost yet though in that area, except time.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 05/6/2015 20:59

'What I don't like to see is the Bears trying to pull the wool over the gullible.'

Perhaps the most ridiculous comment of the day.


'go for a quick placing coupled with an open offer to existing shareholders'

You assume ii's and pi's are queuing up around the block to buy these shares?

The funders of last resort are already owed $20m making this a couple of steps away from unfundable. Time to grow organically for once...

[ridicule] 05/6/2015 20:49

The water decision is clearly a blow coming on top of some surprisingly opaque recent results. There now looks to have been a worrying degree of complacency over the water case outcome, given it was a key enabler to generating a source of finance for iodine expansion. Given we only have 2 year window in which to get the company in a position to manage debt rollover, now is the time for action. The water may come good in time, but it can no longer be the refinancing plan A.

The good news is that the current equity in issue is 127,569,398 shares with nothing in treasury. I am not sure if there are conversion warrants lurking in the background but we are in a position with such a relatively low number of shares by Aim standards to go for a quick placing coupled with an open offer to existing shareholders as Diamondcorp has done today and take control of the overdue expansion in mobiles. This should have been done when the share price was higher, rather than place the house bet on water alone but we are where we are.

[bobbyshilling] 05/6/2015 19:58

madchick, any upside is going to cost money; money which we hoped would come from water, either in it's own right or with a JV. Short term, I doubt we are going anywhere without capital. I will be interested to see what is said at the AGM as to how they are going to raise money for expansion in the iodine side of the business. It is no good iodine prices recovering if we are only producing 700mt per year, some of which will be used for our own consumption. For now, we need to hope they can overturn the water permit decision, but that is not going to happen tomorrow - there is a procedure to go through, and we all know how long that can take.

Sorry to sound negative, but in my opinion, it will be shown that financially, for the kind of expansion we hoped for, the water business is anything but 'non core'.

[madchick] 05/6/2015 19:31

BTW, I enjoy che's posts - it's easy to be happy when everyone's happy and sad when everyone's sad. It's not so easy to be the one trying to get people to see the potential upside when everyone's nursing wounds and feeling crabby. It's much worse to be geeing things on when everyone is in a feeding frenzy (and I've got caught up in that myself and I never learn!), so I don't see che's positivity as a bad thing.

[madchick] 05/6/2015 19:25

They make quite a lot of comments about Carlisle not really understanding things, so I really don't think they were on his side.

I'm not convinced that any money from the water would have funded iodine after whoever it was quoted from the RNS that basically said water money would go to the water business (it could, for example, fund for a go-it-alone strategy for the next permit, if we ever get even one in the first place, that is).

The share price is ridiculous.

I was quite surprised about the comments about Dorn in the report - almost seemed personal. Were IOF over-confident and not prepared enough for the hearing where presumably some things could have been covered off? Or was it just that the questions from DNRC really didn't make sense in the first place? We don't have a transcript, so we can't know.

I reckon IOF could have made a water business out of selling our collective tears today!

Time to forget about water because I don't see a fast outcome. We might get some RNSs of more concrete interest from our potential water partners, though, in preparation for the appeal. However, I'm not sure the market will take much notice. There was a kind of hint in the report that they felt IOF were asking for too much water, which is why I also wonder whether a new application for a lower amount may work better. It would be a psychologically good thing to flatter DNRC that they are acknowledged to be the ones in charge; I do wonder if that's part of the issue (always easy to turn nasty).

Anyway, it's all up to IOF. It's just a shame that the agony of waiting continues!

Let's hope IO.1 can be re-used and relocated soon and they can get a mobile out. It would be best for them to have new plants actually working if the iodine price takes an uptick.

I hope people will report back in full detail from the AGM!!

[monty panesar] 05/6/2015 19:10

Water has been an almost unwanted distraction due to it being traceable in public at all stages....and there have been many. If it was quietly going on in the background it would have been much better.

FWIW To me it appears either a. The Examiner has just rendered all previous water permits for oil invalid in Montana or b. IOF will get the permit granted later in the year possibly for less.

As I mentioned a couple of days ago it is infinitely more important in the context of short term profitability/cashflow etc that iodine production is over 40t per month rather than any water permit.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 05/6/2015 19:04

The situation here is becoming precarious. Can you really guarantee that Stena and Banksy will accept more and more paper for their $20m? What if they refuse and demand their money back?

This needs to start making real money fast or it's over.

[spike_1] 05/6/2015 17:55

Fresh,
I doubt we pay the Directors enough for them to buy a meaningful amount (Mr Big excepting - and he did: 4m @ around 50p).

I do wonder if Mr Carlisle was pre-briefed on what was required to scupper our permit. It would explain why he wasn't represented.

Well I've just been out and bought a relatively expensive wine and the makings of a cheap dinner and will gather my thoughts this evening.

Most of my holding is spread bets. I took off those few limits that I had pre-open and allowed the market to do its worst - having first added a little cash to ensure I can go down to an share price of about 5p before making any further decision.

Personally I think it unfair to expect IOF to have foreseen this - because it is without precedent (as custom and practice) and it may have proven very difficult to get Halliburton et al to agree terms for a contract at that point in the proceedings when - until now - it had not been necessary.

Best wishes and good luck one and all - Mike

[freshvoicem] 05/6/2015 16:56

Cyber so you can sell 100k above price. Well why don't you?
I can buy 100k BELOW A TENTH of what the price was when Lance 'sold/transferred' his 4.5m shares.
Note directors are not buying even at his price, must tell you something.

[bobbyshilling] 05/6/2015 16:51

With practically every recent rns concerning the water permit the company have expressed their confidence and expectations in getting it awarded. That is what people take notice of and one of the reasons why we invest. I should like to hear more of an explanation from them as to why they did not anticipate what went wrong and how they are going to address it in the future, and if they even can. Perhaps we might get that later - after all this has dragged on and on and looks set to do so.

[meb123] 05/6/2015 16:42

I suspect the company will be in a holding mode now waiting for the iodine price to rise. If the price does go much above 30 , lets hope they done burn up any more cash and at least are breakeven for this year. We still have a couple more years for the debt to be paid or refinanced , so may not be a worry at this stage

[festario] 05/6/2015 16:40

Ah well, it's reassuring that Lance says that Earnings Per Share is all that's important.
PFFTT!!!

[cyberbub] 05/6/2015 16:35

Yes, a JV where the Japanese put up the capital for expansion, and we sell them the iodine for a 20% discount on the market price... or whatever... that may be the way forward... we do hold the technology IP which is our trump card...GLA

[woodpeckers] 05/6/2015 16:30

I'd like to hear that they've entered into a farm-in/ off-take agreement with a company to fund the mobiles.