Invinity Energy Systems Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 10/5/2024 15:37

Well, in for a penny - I've doubled up. If they can't deliver I will have made a bad mistake and so will the UKIB; but I dare say one it's one I can live with. Still seeing asymmetric potential here though my rose tinted.
;)

[smackeraim] 10/5/2024 15:21

showing a tiny sign of life. hopefully things churn out over next week

[mab] 10/5/2024 09:52

For the share price to rise meaningfully from 23p, Invinty has to start nailing down the 400+Mwh to justify the soon £100mill m/cap. If it's another year of emptiness on actual delivered Mwh the share price could fall to 10p as IES burns through another cash pile.

Mistral was meant to be launched, now "late" 2024. If IES starts knocking down the ducks as they do seem well lined up, and over delivers , price could easily do 50p and maybe 100p over next year. Market and sector trends major variables also which will play into Invinity's good or bad fortunes.

[guppygould] 10/5/2024 09:03

Thanks a lot Megaman, I'm definitely interested in what happens. I've had to write this off as an investment because I backed it too early and can't really average down in any meaningful way now, but I'll be watching developments nonetheless...

[gbcol] 10/5/2024 09:01

Thanks megaman, useful posts. I have spoken/ communicated with IES IR many times over the years(although not for some months), and they are always willing to discuss and explain as much as they can without divulging anything not in the public domain of course.

[megaman2] 10/5/2024 08:47

So the newsletter said people can email any questions . So I did about the rationale for $18 mill dilution to stake UK contracts including the 50 % matched lodes win.

I got a prompt reply with a paragraph which I won't copy because I didn't get permission . But certainly not anything not unknown.

Basically it was I have already aluded to. That's the state of play in the UK and they are doing this to get a foothold in the market in anticipation of near term market changes and being in a strong position to capatilise on that when it happens .

Said it was more easily explained and they could call me . I left a non uk number and said they could call anytime . Not had a call yet but I have my answer and had already come to that conclusion.

It is what it is. I understand why they have done it makes business sense but clearly there are no guarantees here moving forward if there was the share price would be much higher . Dyor I'm mindful that the likes of vsa job is to be optimistic let's hope this time it comes true and in a timely manner . If I get a call and gleen any further perspectives I will relay it .

[megaman2] 10/5/2024 08:02

"next Steps For Flow Batteries
On its part, Invinity is anticipating widespread use for its flow batteries. The US electric cooperative system is a good place to start. The five utilities tapped to host Invinity’s flow batteries are just the tip of an iceberg composed of 900 rural electric cooperatives that trace their roots back to Depression-era programs aimed at uplifting impoverished rural communities. Because these utilities are member-owned, not-for-profit entities with a community benefit mission (socialism!), they tend to have more leeway to experiment with potentially beneficial new technologies."

[tom_w3] 09/5/2024 22:31

You're going to have to wait until after the open offer closes for any movement

[indiestu] 09/5/2024 14:23

How dull. FTSE 250 breaking out, risk back on. IES going nowhere.

[gbcol] 08/5/2024 12:44

Indeed. The orders are still there if you believe the latest pipeline, 50MWh close to signing and another 432MWh in advanced discussions. So why have they taken so long to get across the line? Maybe the need for fundraising was preventing clients signing up. In which case, that obstacle is being removed. It could be they are waiting for launch of mistral, but that is less likely IMO for the imminent ones, as they have already signed up mistral orders plus the 50 MWh ready for signing doesn’t seem large enough to fit into the mistral size sweet spot.

It’s very, very frustrating that they haven’t nailed these orders that were signposted at the end of last year, and the failure to do so meant the placing was at a much lower level than it would have been but there is some comfort to be taken that they orders are apparently still there and the pipeline continues to grow significantly.

[megaman2] 08/5/2024 11:25

Completely agree mike that's the crux of the matter..

Orders asap and news on existing ones.timelines keep getting put back which is disastrous for cash flow and has to improve substantially . No excuses now.

[mikemine1] 08/5/2024 11:23

I doubt if VSA is allowed to buy as been suggested.

[mikemine1] 08/5/2024 11:21

GB, well reasoned but where are those orders? IES have stated that it takes about 6 months from initial enquiry to placing an order. Fair enough, so where are the orders they have been flagging for months? They need to start closing these sales and soon.

[indiestu] 08/5/2024 11:20

That is a lot of volume over three days all on the buy side. Why would VSA risk purchasing over a million in share value after their big pay day? To support the price? Do you mean keep it over the open offer price so the available shares are fully subscribed? That being the case you must be assuming the share price would tumble without said support. Why would that be? Doesn't make sense to me. Maybe it is punters buying in the market, genuine interest. Rebuilding positions. Does anyone have level 2. That should give an indication of where the sell side prices are sat and when this could move.

[gbcol] 08/5/2024 11:00

It will all depend on the newsflow once this placing and OO is finalised IMO. Also, there could well be positive press at completion, along lines of this weekend’s in Sunday Times. Well funded company and with a very healthy pipeline, that should hopefully generate significant buying interest. On the other side, many will be tempted to sell their 23p open offer shares when they can get 10%, 20%, 30% profit, so may take a little time for things to shake out.

However, we know how quickly the share price can move (both ways!), so if they start landing some of the rumoured £100million orders - or indeed any orders - we could see a significant re-rating.

[itsriskythat] 08/5/2024 10:34

There could have been some forward selling at 24p a couple of weeks back.

[itsriskythat] 08/5/2024 10:30

The current buying is likely the broker VSA Capital supporting the share price until the new shares are traded and the open offer is closed. Paid enough in fees to take a small hit.

[doctorbgreg] 08/5/2024 09:56

I need to pick someone’s brain! I appreciate the share price isn’t going to move really until the open offer is concluded. Just as a hypothetical, what happens if this level of buying continues in the mean time? Will the share price remain flat for the next few weeks, then sky rocket? Will the share price be forced up during these next 2-3 weeks?
I’m not expecting anything, just more of a hypothetical question for my learning.

[happydays2004] 07/5/2024 12:35

The LCOS of #VRFBs are coming down quickly with global adoption growth, increasing scale of battery production and new generation battery technology. The leasing model or lease-buy works to further reduce up-front costs and puts this tech at the forefront for long duration energy storage. Global forecasts of 8TWh and a US$40T LDES market by 2040 is slowly but surely waking up global investment and changing banking models. Decarbonising the planet takes innovation and investment beyond election cycles and we need further energy policy changes to drive this to meet all our energy transition targets.

[marktime1231] 07/5/2024 12:29

No. The institutions have just spent up and private investors have a retail offer at 23p on its way so why would the share price move until the subscription shares have listed and the retail round has executed?

Let's not worry about the micro-movements in the share price for a few weeks let's concentrate on the real news around results, trading, sales, Mistral launching, partnerships in Europe and the US, etc etc. A path to profitable operations anyone?

[vatnabrekk] 07/5/2024 12:17

Loads of buys today. This has got to move soon.

[megaman2] 07/5/2024 12:13

It's a fairly good assesment Brucie.. agree especially your point 7. is exactly my thoughts .

[74tom] 07/5/2024 11:42

Well yes, they're running out of shares because buying has been strong since the news was announced - it was held at mid price on Thursday & Friday but buying has driven it higher since. Most people will follow the share price though, a rising price drives more volume

[brucie5] 07/5/2024 11:40

Well I've bought in. Based on my many years of following this share I hold the following logic:

1. It may or may not succeed commercially and has years of coming back to the market - therefore high risk; and never risk upside without considering downside.

2. The best upside, obviously, is when the shares are at their lowest. But this is risky unless the balance sheet more or less guarantees a time window of cash runway to BE which may/may not come.

3. Afaic, it's not the technology but the business model which is yet to be proven, via roll out of Mistral. Obviously, that has not been without delays and issues via Siemens Gamesa; but the proof of concept is effectively there. (Please question this if you disagree!)

4. The larger story has always been one of a small player in a market place that is to all intents and purposes limitless and is having huge amounts of venture capital, also via the IRA and UK gov thrown at it. Recent fund raising further exemplifies this, with willingness of UK state to get involved.

5. The VFR story has particular appeal vs dominant lithium, well know on these boards; non-toxic, recyclable and do not catch fire.

6. While early stage in terms of its route to profits, it appears to have widespread acceptance as a technology and product line with international clients and geographic diversification. And I presume that the Oxford Hub carries on supplying all sorts of useful data.

7. Markets here are becoming a little more excitable, which is something I've noticed from some of my other riskier stocks; therefore we might expect to sees greater flows of capital into shares like this which in the medium term might seem to offer asymmetric gains. I can't see it going down much from here, now that it's very fully cashed up; but I can, on previous form, see it doubling or more with a few good announcements.

For these reasons, and notwithstanding lot of technical ignorance and a certain amount of FOMO after following for so long, I have decided that it's probably a case of now or never. Wit the proviso that I would probably be looking to scalp a rise that became overly precipitate, to plough back into dividend holdings which form the majority of the Bruciefolio.

I'm back in for a regular helping at .235p. Jaknife do your worst.

;)