Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[propinv] 09/5/2019 15:37

Why? Do you have a rationale around that, please?

[mike24] 09/5/2019 15:02

present prop, investments should be in small ind, units (up to 5000sq ft)
future investing should be in btl's


edit, Propivest , inflation is caused by a shortage, a surplus of anything brings prices down,
there is a chronic shortage of starter units, and there will be a chronic shortage of
rentable housing, there is a ever growing surplus of retail, explain why we should invest
in retail

[escapetohome] 03/5/2019 19:58

Ive certainly got a knack for this.

Right on 95p.

Sometimes i amaze myself.

[hillofwad] 03/5/2019 10:44

Very light on detail !!! It sounds good though !!!

hxxps://www.commercialrealestate.loans/commercial-real-estate-glossary/waterfall-and-promote-structures



However what it means that Intu "the fall guys" are first in line for any loss of income Cale are sitting very nicely as the centre would have to implode before it hits 50%

So lets be conservative it looks like a loss of total income is going to be circa 5% plus In addition unallocated service charges on top

So 5% drop means Intu suffers a loss of 10% of their share of rental income

Now You would value Cales 50% interst at say 5.5% reflecting its safety but where would you value Intus 50% with a potentailly imminent loss of 10% of the rental 9%?

More importantly apart from Cale who would want to buy it if push comes to shove?

[propinv] 03/5/2019 09:49

Thanks Hillofwad. Where can I find the breakdown of the waterfall?

[hillofwad] 03/5/2019 09:30

What he didn't say of course is that the dreadful deal on Derby where their 50% has the top slice income is a burner.
The estiamted 4-6% loss of income will be firmly at their door here When it comes to valuation time the book value of their 50% interest will be shot to bits Far from reducing LTVs this deal has increased it

Very worrying if that is the best they cabn do in getting them away

[chiragmahe] 03/5/2019 08:24

they need to sell all assets in spain and bring down debt

[loafofbread] 03/5/2019 08:21

Did I miss the debt figure?

[propinv] 03/5/2019 08:19

It's guidance change. They knew about it at last guidance too. Don't give the impression they are on top of this. Behind curve at every stage

[chiragmahe] 03/5/2019 08:14

I thought it was all known that rents would be lower and CVA were coming in 2019. Its been told for months.

Not sure whats surprising here.

[kirk 6] 03/5/2019 07:30

Ouch big crash on open

[ih_707265] 03/5/2019 07:24

That's good as I am short on it. Altman Z Score below 1.1 and recent 6 month low are good scans to use. Yahoo Screener and Barchart to find these.

[bookbroker] 03/5/2019 07:18

Means another downgrade to forecasts!

[ih_707265] 03/5/2019 07:18

I guesss -4 to 6 is not good? :-)

[propinv] 03/5/2019 07:12

Adjusted guidance to minus 4-6%!

[roulettewheel] 02/5/2019 15:04

I did not quite max out, I was surprised on down move, and even more surprised on size of bounce,
I think shorts have had their way and are done for now, hence the bounce.
I am leaving some room to buy after results tomorrow. I guess there will be some negative news which the shorts will jump on.
So I aim to load up low 90s if I get the chance. If not already quite long here so happy either way.

[loafofbread] 02/5/2019 13:49

Shorts closing out before tomorrows TU/AGM?

[chiragmahe] 02/5/2019 12:57

how large is the buy oder L2 any idea?

[escapetohome] 02/5/2019 12:47

Oh well vindicated after all, looks like i was correct in my 95p floor after all.

[cc2014] 02/5/2019 12:43

L2 seems to suggest a buy program running. It's not that large but there don't seem to be many sellers!

[cc2014] 02/5/2019 12:10

Bouncing fast. Seller finished or just bots gone mad?

[propinv] 02/5/2019 09:27

This is a helpful post. Thanks

[hillofwad] 02/5/2019 06:23

JLL Winter shopping centre report

2018 saw very few shopping centre transactions to give an accurate steer on yields

It's difficult to understand why Intu undertook the Derby transaction as it did very little to help the company situation The value of Intu's remaining 50% has been hit for 6 with the "waterfall distribution" arrangement The LTVs haven't improved


We can only guess that it was a bit of a teaser for Cale to bite on others .I should imagine Capital & Regional are in discussions currently teating the market on some of their kit as their LTVs are dangerously close to tipping over 50%

The market currently in a state of turmoil still assessing the DEBS situation .Many loans under water