Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 12:12

All data tell us, sell all shops to renters, can receive around 10 billion pounds cash, minus all debt, shareholders will receive 452.1 pence per share, this is is child math question, also can easily be sold as rented at a double price high, make it simple, selling to renters reduce 50% cost, only silly people not buy the properties.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 12:08

Look at the last few minutes 6.165 then all of a sudden having to pay 6.72 and 6.62. But then offer drops to 6.42 That will be the Shorters restocking the offer to try to stop any rally in its tracks ! It could be a risky time for shorts.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 12:06

Trading pattern is beginning to give me the impression it could suddenly bounce to 10p on the faintest hint of any good news.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 12:06

I'm more interested in the short term movement of the share price is it going to recover yes or no that's all that matters.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 12:05

What the hell has my house to do with it houses are not values on rental income value.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 12:04

I understand fully but you are the one who doesn't seem to grasp that if you sell all the properties they have nothing left and the value of said properties is less than the value of the debt so what's left after all properties sold ?

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 12:04

What'sthepoint, can you sell your houses for 5000 pound?

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 12:02

You hold properties, but you always say, you can't pay debt, simply sell the properties , you can pay all debt.

Ok , make it simple, what's the percentage of shops being rented out at a higher price, we can get this figure from annual financial statement, now sell it to renters, can reduce 50% rent cost, understand? What'sthepoint?

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 11:57

You can only sell a shop once and when it's gone it's gone the debt still has to be serviced or repaid !! Basically they have over leveraged and are struggling to pay the debt from a lower level of income. Need some asset sales, massive cost reduction and refinanced debt or it's curtains. Why else do you think the share price is where it is

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:57

What'sthepoint

If your house is worth 1 million pounds, you borrow bank 0.5 million pounds, are you selling your house at 7000 pounds ?

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 11:55

Greg give it a rest !!! It has just been explained the value may well be as you say but the debt wipes all that value out hence the share price

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:55

Coronavirus will terminated in 2 months, please analysis India numbers you will get the result.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:54

All shops close for 1 year, no revenue, but almost no cost as well, intu properties selling price is 382 pence per share.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:52

An advertisment states ' INTU Merry hill Shop to rent
£ 129,654 per Annum 1665 square feet.'
In February 2020. A screenshot being taken as an evidence.

Let's work out, why revaluation since 2017 is not acceptable, book value reduced from 411 pence to 147 pence per share, basic on what? Basic on CEO 's  Mouth?

1665 square feet /10.764 = 154.68 square meter.

129654/154.68=838.21 pounds per square meter per year

Current Merry Hill sale price is 587600000 pounds, totally 155200 square meter. 587600000/155200 = 3786.08 pounds per square meter.

3786.08/838.21= 4.52 years, which mean if a renter pay the rent for 4.52 years, the total amount of money paid in 4.52 years, can buy the shop (999 years), therefore, if you are a renter, are you willing to sign a rent contract for 7 to 10 years (on average), or buy the shop?

And also basic on this calculation, re valuation in 2019 is much lower than 2011 is not acceptable, the true value is 382 pence per share basic on Spanish asset  sold price at end of 2019.

During coronavirus, the government will pay salary for 6 months, even intu properties close for 6 month to 1 year (insurance can pay salary when losing a job or government might can pay up to 1 year salary), even no any income for 1 year, but almost no cost as well, so intu properties true value will remain 382 pence per share basic on Spanish asset sold price.

CEO set ' fix balance sheet as strategy ', actually, which is a financial department strategy, if intu properties change strategy to selling all shops to individual renters, as they already invested lots on decoration, built loyalty customers etc, they don't want to move firstly, basic on the calculation above, only silly people don't buy, the selling price to renters can easily go up to the price on 2017. The valuation in 2017 is 931,000,000 pounds for merry hill, divided by 155200 = 5998.71 pounds per square meter, 5998.71/838.21= 7.16 years, as the renters signed 7-10 years rent contract on average, if selling to renters , the price can even increase to 10 years rent price , the true book value should be 411*1.397= 574.02 pence per share, if the renters get mortgage from bank for 20 years,  only pay half of current rent roughly , after 20 years, no rent cost for renters, only pay a little bit service charge (Intu properties only need to remain securities,  rubbish collection , air condition water, cleaning and electricity basic service charge, still profitable) and business rates. at the other side, intu properties will receive 70% cash (10.5-0.6)*1.397 *0.7= 9.68 billion pounds within 1 year, and 13.83 billion pounds within 2 years.  Book value is roughly 574.02 pence per share.

As intu properties already listed intu merry hill to sell, why don't sell renters already engaged and also invest lots on decoration and loyalty customers etc., which can reduce the rent cost up to 48.5% in 20 years, after 20 years, no rent cost, the demand is high, and the most important thing is selling at a higher price. If they refuse to sell at a higher price and an easier way to renters, this is an evidence scam.

In conclusion, share price droped 95.6% in 1 year, in any companies , the chairman and CEO must leave, otherwise intu properties confirm re valuation, right issue, cash call, 9 brand online fashion etc. is scam.

We will forecast a taken over is a must no less than 2.5 billion pounds ,184.5 pence per share or to selling individual shops to renters at as higher price as possible, to show a clean-handed, otherwise, intu properties will be investigated by world investors and reported by world media, and management team will be sued to prison by positive UK Government and Polices.

Please return shareholders money 452.1 pence to 574.02 pence per share. ( The location Merry Hill  are worse than ARNDALE center etc. The price is even higher), over 90% shop been rented out at a high price with an average contract 7-10 years, if the renters buying the shops with mortgage, can reduce rent cost 50% each year within 20 years , and no rent cost after 20 years, there is no excuses for the renters not buying the shop. Even 50% shops closed, which mean intu can sell 50% shops to renters as 50% reduced on rent cost, intu properties for sure not going to bust.

Make it simple, there is no excuse for renters not buying the shops as cost can reduce 50% each year for 20 years, after 20 years, no rent cost, even 50% shop closed, intu properties are still not going to bust.

So we will forecast that a taken over is a must no less than 2.5 billion pounds, 184.5 pence per share (basic on all sorts of data, under the condition no big complaints ) before annual shareholders meeting, otherwise, intu properties management will be sued to prison (90% shareholders been hurt by 95.6 % dropped in a properties company book value is 411 pence per share in 2017), peel group will lost all money, Intu need to return shareholders up to 30 billion pounds , LSE will lost 50% of international financial markets and UK financial companies will lost 50% international market in next 10 years, intu-virus once being reported by world media (thousand of shareholders are on the way to sue intu properties at annual shareholders meeting, you can't miss it by statistics).

As global needs fund already forecasted cash call (on 12-03-2020) being terminated in January 2020, we also forecast today(14-April 2020) any actions try to delist below book value (184.5 pence per share minimum ) basic on the calculation above, will definitely being investigated by world shareholders at annual shareholders meeting in May 2020.

One more point, if a renter buy the shop, can still sell the shop anytime later on, as the value of the shop is increasing , but not dropping at least , the renters actually pay nothing for the rent from now on once of buying the shop, even a profit on the shop properties value, in conclusion, renters as already engaged with intu properties, and spend lots on decoration and built loyalty customers, buying the shop equally no rent cost from now on, only silly people don't buy, global needs fund will forecaste 90% shops can be sold within 1 year if intu  properties sell the shop to individual renters or millions properties investors.

If one renter buy the shop, each year rent cost reduce 50%, and after 20 years , no rent cost,  are you going to buy or rent (7-10 years rent contract).

If intu properties sell individual shops to renters at a higher price 452.1 pence per share and easier , why sales at a low price below 184.5 pence per share to one single buyer? (Properties are not watermelons, after 10 days, the value will drop to nothing)

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 11:41

C Odey will be pushing for bankruptcy. The lower he gets the share price the less likely company will be able to renegotiate its debt deals. This is how the hedgies attack zombie high debt companies. Look at how they killed all shareholder value in yellow Pages and others.

[whatsthepoint] 15/4/2020 11:35

Shorters still in tot control at the moment. That Crispin Oder is so aggressive he never lets go when he is short his fund should be suspended through Covid 19 outbreak. Or tax him 100% on all profits made

[goliard] 15/4/2020 11:34

My numbers are not "net profit". They are taken from last years accounts and are the net rental income. You take all costs off that figure to work out the net profit.

2017 figures are not helpful as they ignore the catastrophic loss in value in the retail sector over the last few years. This is well demonstrated by the massive increase in empty space as tenants have pulled out at the end of leases or gone bust.

Nobody would pay 20x curren rent for a retail property. Even government backed property - ie rented directly to the government with a long lease and a near zero chance of default would be valued at about 16x rental and thatis why your numbers do not make sense unfortunatley. You want the top valuation and want to use old market conditions to calculate it. You are also missing another point which is that tenants who bought their usint would still have large bills to pay for the centre services, so it is not like buying a shop on a high street.

I am just trying to point out reality here, but won't debate it any more as you are entitled to hold whatever view you want to, even if it is bonkers.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:28

An advertisment states ' INTU Merry hill Shop to rent
£ 129,654 per Annum 1665 square feet.'
In February 2020. A screenshot being taken as an evidence.

Let's work out, why revaluation since 2017 is not acceptable, book value reduced from 411 pence to 147 pence per share, basic on what? Basic on CEO 's  Mouth?

1665 square feet /10.764 = 154.68 square meter.

129654/154.68=838.21 pounds per square meter per year

Current Merry Hill sale price is 587600000 pounds, totally 155200 square meter. 587600000/155200 = 3786.08 pounds per square meter.

3786.08/838.21= 4.52 years, which mean if a renter pay the rent for 4.52 years, the total amount of money paid in 4.52 years, can buy the shop (999 years), therefore, if you are a renter, are you willing to sign a rent contract for 7 to 10 years (on average), or buy the shop?

And also basic on this calculation, re valuation in 2019 is much lower than 2011 is not acceptable, the true value is 382 pence per share basic on Spanish asset  sold price at end of 2019.

During coronavirus, the government will pay salary for 6 months, even intu properties close for 6 month to 1 year (insurance can pay salary when losing a job or government might can pay up to 1 year salary), even no any income for 1 year, but almost no cost as well, so intu properties true value will remain 382 pence per share basic on Spanish asset sold price.

CEO set ' fix balance sheet as strategy ', actually, which is a financial department strategy, if intu properties change strategy to selling all shops to individual renters, as they already invested lots on decoration, built loyalty customers etc, they don't want to move firstly, basic on the calculation above, only silly people don't buy, the selling price to renters can easily go up to the price on 2017. The valuation in 2017 is 931,000,000 pounds for merry hill, divided by 155200 = 5998.71 pounds per square meter, 5998.71/838.21= 7.16 years, as the renters signed 7-10 years rent contract on average, if selling to renters , the price can even increase to 10 years rent price , the true book value should be 411*1.397= 574.02 pence per share, if the renters get mortgage from bank for 20 years,  only pay half of current rent roughly , after 20 years, no rent cost for renters, only pay a little bit service charge (Intu properties only need to remain securities,  rubbish collection , air condition water, cleaning and electricity basic service charge, still profitable) and business rates. at the other side, intu properties will receive 70% cash (10.5-0.6)*1.397 *0.7= 9.68 billion pounds within 1 year, and 13.83 billion pounds within 2 years.  Book value is roughly 574.02 pence per share.

As intu properties already listed intu merry hill to sell, why don't sell renters already engaged and also invest lots on decoration and loyalty customers etc., which can reduce the rent cost up to 48.5% in 20 years, after 20 years, no rent cost, the demand is high, and the most important thing is selling at a higher price. If they refuse to sell at a higher price and an easier way to renters, this is an evidence scam.

In conclusion, share price droped 95.6% in 1 year, in any companies , the chairman and CEO must leave, otherwise intu properties confirm re valuation, right issue, cash call, 9 brand online fashion etc. is scam.

We will forecast a taken over is a must no less than 2.5 billion pounds ,184.5 pence per share or to selling individual shops to renters at as higher price as possible, to show a clean-handed, otherwise, intu properties will be investigated by world investors and reported by world media, and management team will be sued to prison by positive UK Government and Polices.

Please return shareholders money 452.1 pence to 574.02 pence per share. ( The location Merry Hill  are worse than ARNDALE center etc. The price is even higher), over 90% shop been rented out at a high price with an average contract 7-10 years, if the renters buying the shops with mortgage, can reduce rent cost 50% each year within 20 years , and no rent cost after 20 years, there is no excuses for the renters not buying the shop. Even 50% shops closed, which mean intu can sell 50% shops to renters as 50% reduced on rent cost, intu properties for sure not going to bust.

Make it simple, there is no excuse for renters not buying the shops as cost can reduce 50% each year for 20 years, after 20 years, no rent cost, even 50% shop closed, intu properties are still not going to bust.

So we will forecast that a taken over is a must no less than 2.5 billion pounds, 184.5 pence per share (basic on all sorts of data, under the condition no big complaints ) before annual shareholders meeting, otherwise, intu properties management will be sued to prison (90% shareholders been hurt by 95.6 % dropped in a properties company book value is 411 pence per share in 2017), peel group will lost all money, Intu need to return shareholders up to 30 billion pounds , LSE will lost 50% of international financial markets and UK financial companies will lost 50% international market in next 10 years, intu-virus once being reported by world media (thousand of shareholders are on the way to sue intu properties at annual shareholders meeting, you can't miss it by statistics).

As global needs fund already forecasted cash call (on 12-03-2020) being terminated in January 2020, we also forecast today(14-April 2020) any actions try to delist below book value (184.5 pence per share minimum ) basic on the calculation above, will definitely being investigated by world shareholders at annual shareholders meeting in May 2020.

One more point, if a renter buy the shop, can still sell the shop anytime later on, as the value of the shop is increasing , but not dropping at least , the renters actually pay nothing for the rent from now on once of buying the shop, even a profit on the shop properties value, in conclusion, renters as already engaged with intu properties, and spend lots on decoration and built loyalty customers, buying the shop equally no rent cost from now on, only silly people don't buy, global needs fund will forecaste 90% shops can be sold within 1 year if intu  properties sell the shop to individual renters or millions properties investors.

If one renter buy the shop, each year rent cost reduce 50%, and after 20 years , no rent cost,  are you going to buy or rent (7-10 years rent contract).

If intu properties sell individual shops to renters at a higher price 452.1 pence per share and easier , why sales at a low price below 184.5 pence per share to one single buyer? (Properties are not watermelons, after 10 days, the value will drop to nothing)

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:24

All data tell us a truth, re valuation since 2017 is totally un acceptable. The evidences are so clear.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:21

Your thinking is backing to right track, basic on rental market of UK properties, flat or shopping centers, selling price is 15-20 times of rental price per annum. 616*15-20= 9 billion pounds -12 billion pounds.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:16

So funny, you should work out your number basic on net profit.;-)

Intu revenue in 2017 is 616 million pound (not 100% been rented out).

Selling price can't equal 10 years rent price in this situation, intu true selling value market price is 10 billion around 20% up or down.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 11:06

Spread, hedge, anyway, go short not at the price of 30% away from book value by statistic.

Intu true book value is between 452.1 pence to 574.02 pence per share, basic on the current rent price and market demand.

[goliard] 15/4/2020 11:02

Greg2019,

The calculations are really very simple, but will have changed slightly from last years results.

Net Rental Income (for last year) is £400 million. So if INTU agreed to your idea and sold the units for the multiple you stated above (which I think was just under 5) then they would receive approximately £2 billion assuming every tenant purchased their unit.

Personally I think your multile is too low and they would get about 12 times, which represents a healthy 8.3% yield to the purchaser. In this scenario INTU would receive £4.8 billion.

The debt from the last results was a little under £5 billion - it will be a bit lower now but so will rental income so I am just using the figures from the last accounts.

It is therefore very easy to see that even if every tenant paid 12x their annual rent and bought their unit, INTU would still not be able ot pay back all their debt.

The equity value - ie the value of the shares - would be calculated by taking what is left over after all debt was repaid and dividing by the number of shares in issue. On this calculation the equity value is zero as there is still a liability.

My calculation ignores a possible value for units which are not currently rented, so if you add those back in you get a very small equity value - which is what we see in the shareprice now.

So... unless they would sell their units for more like 14, 15, or 16 times rental then there is no value here. It is as simple as that. Your calculations are exactly what the fund managers use to value the shares. You think you have come up with a new idea, but it really is not new at all. The problems is that your numbers are wrong. I am not claiming mine are perfect, but they give a much clearer sense of reality.

[greg2019] 15/4/2020 10:14

I already sent to [e-mail]

Can you suggest a better email to sent?