Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[cfc1] 11/7/2018 12:46

so buys out way sells and the smallest and slightest sale takes price down! Now tell me this isnt being rigged?

[windrushg] 11/7/2018 10:17

Promising. It's risen by 5% in less than an hour!

[eodfire] 11/7/2018 09:42

Let's have a short squeeze from here. Stranger things have happened.

[cfc1] 11/7/2018 09:00

unbelievable. Such little volume can move the share price 1,2 or even 3p down! I am talking to Mark Whitley on Mon afternoon and will implore him to get news out! They must be close to disposals and even deal news AND they better give us a good update in August.
How the hell can we be so 60p! But I guess with dead silence from the company HFs will play!

[aendjo] 10/7/2018 19:31

Dan, you list facts. Institutional shareholders have not moved - short or long positions. Volumes have been low. Maybe cc is right, someone in the know is offloading as a trickle - but if it were large holders that would be subject to RNS? It’s unnerving but I’m staying long.

[dandanactionman] 10/7/2018 18:39

All IMHO DYOR this is a high risk share IMHO1.Any idea when we get a date for interim resultsLast few years it has been between 6 August and 12 August. So one would hope less then a month away.2. One wonders if the FCA review into previous announcements is what is putting a legal Kyboish on them making announcements of trading updates.3. I am noting that the big players have not really changed their positions in a long time, Goldman have put out a few announcements but these are quite small changes? No other real changes in the big players positions.4. Shorttracker does not seem to show any change since 22/6. If this is true then near 3 weeks of little change in shorts and shares have fallen through the floor.5. If shorts have not really changed and big holders have not really changed then MAYBE just MAYBE it is Small holders losing faith as there is a complete lack of news?

[aendjo] 10/7/2018 18:27

We see things from different perspectives.

I hope you are wrong - not about the fact that IRV is in deep trouble, but about your valuation and future prospects.

For points 1 and 2 - the fact is IRV has won a number of contracts from the private and public in the past 12 months, some among the largest ever secured.

RMDK was not sold as a strategic decision - the most conservative valuation of a company with 25m+ profit is 150/200m?

TOP for the whole of Interserve is well above what’s necessary to cover interest, 75m+ before the mooted 15m improvements of fit for growth.

Disposals - we have been update about haymarket but we don’t know the impact of of plant, fleet, estate and smaller business units. I share your frustration with the lack of news.

Attracting talent. Pollard, Cabrini, McDonald... first class people coming to Interserve. I don’t quite see the exodus you are describing.

Carillion is bust. Prisons need to be run and the number one player is now IRV (with Servo and G4S). Margins will improve.

I’m staying long.

[cc2014] 10/7/2018 17:40

Hi Cjl62. I have more information that I did 6-8 weeks ago so my decision has become clearer.

[jeffian] 10/7/2018 14:48

"gregpeck710 Jul '18 - 13:36 - 9582 of 9588
0 1 0
5 and 7 seem a pretty big contradiction ;)

Stopped reading there..."




No contradiction at all among a list of negatives. 1) they are forced to sell assets to meet a tight repayment schedule and 2) that will decrease EBITDA. It's not a question of what they want but what they are forced to do to meet their commitments to their lenders who are only trying to get their money back, not worry about what is good for the company or what the remnants will look like afterwards. This attitude has already been shown early on by the banks forcing IRV to sell an in-the-money SWAP and give them the proceeds, pocketing the cash and leaving IRV with higher annual costs.

I should start reading again........

[cjl62] 10/7/2018 14:37

CC May i ask why you have waited this long to decide to short ? You were going to short at 120 last time but just missed the boated i believe.

Strange !!!!!!!!!

[eodfire] 10/7/2018 14:27

I was going to say, to be fair the shorters have been right recently. I still believe we are close to turnaround however. Shorters have to close at some point.

[fenners66] 10/7/2018 14:22

Now look the share price has dived - maybe I should have !

[fenners66] 10/7/2018 14:21

Chances are this will limp on for years....

[eodfire] 10/7/2018 13:41

Maybe you'll take cc's advice and open a large short fenners.

[dexdringle] 10/7/2018 13:39

CC2014 said "I’m valuing IRV at about £10m"

Well that's weird then because the market is valuing it at £90m ?

Suggest you open some big shorts very quickly if you think it is 9 x overvalued. Surely that is a no brainer for you ?

[gregpeck7] 10/7/2018 13:36

5 and 7 seem a pretty big contradiction ;)

Stopped reading there...

[fenners66] 10/7/2018 13:21

CC good synopsis, I can see you put some time into that.

[obiwoncanary] 10/7/2018 10:43

Ha ha thanks cc, haven’t laughed like that for a long time...

[aendjo] 10/7/2018 09:42

CC, how are you valuing IRV less than 100m? I respect your opinion and as a long investor here it is troublesome to see you go on the short side. If you could clarify your thought process that would be much appreciated.

[eodfire] 10/7/2018 09:28

Let us know when you finally get to short this. Good luck. Rather you than me however.

[cc2014] 10/7/2018 09:18

Morning all.

Finally I pressed the button to short this. Only to find that having opened an account specifically for the purpose of shorting IRV with Degiro that it's no longer allowed. Risk category D- too risky to short.

Pity. I also see CMC won't let me trade it either long or short - too risky.


So, it's off to IG I guess. That's if they will let me as 10 years ago they made my account untradeable for too many winning trades.

[aendjo] 10/7/2018 07:29

Outsourcing is a 250b market in the UK. Interserve will continue to ba a major supplier. Providers have grown through acquisitions and entered a “hamster wheel” system where they had to continue to bid - the Report stops short of saying they were forced to - in order to survive. There is only one buyer, the Government. The Report paints a sector wide crisis that the readers here will find familiar. It also states that these providers have an essential role in the UK economy. The Report identifies the monopoly and practices of governmental bodies as the main culprit of this crisis and recommends that - if the master does not want to kill its slave - there should be less risk thrown on the shoulders of contractors and that there should be more focus on quality rather than thin margins.

Of course the government may decide not to follow any of the recommendations. I also concede that there were great responsibilities to be attributed to BODs of these large companies. But the wording of the Report, in my mind, heralds the sector wide cycle reversal that many of us have argued is inevitable.

I appreciate that refinancing may well be on the cards. How much money needs to be raised? 200m seems like a reasonable figure. We’ll have more clarity on where we stand following disposals and phase 1 of FFG, hopefully soon.

[windrushg] 10/7/2018 01:41

Me July think May is too august and will march on