Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 24/6/2011 01:01

HOPEFULLY felix we can avoid a serious fall, by a positive rns. id hate to see this drift into the 50,s over the next couple of months.

ps off topic

talking about ports felix, i have a large stake in a interesting company that are building a port in mumbai india. worth at least putting in your watch-list. its a good long-term investment in my eyes.

(spl )

market cap now 86 million.

expected earnings 2016 35.7 million

expected earings 2018 49.5 million. with 150 million cash on the balance sheet.

[felix99] 23/6/2011 14:29

I will happily buy more as it falls - they are investing for the future and I liken this to the Ports in UK a few years ago.

Earnings went downhill or were static and the shares got sold down cos the p/e 's were too high based upon earnings. Everyone forgot about the assets the ports had which were worth way more than the market caps they got sold down to. Then the bids flew in and the share prices went crazy.

IGP is the same - forget what the earnings are look at what their IP is worth. Just a waiting game

[aphrodites] 20/6/2011 11:09

Just to let you know I have started to put my toe back into the water to buy more stock today.

I bought 4,000 shares at 74.96p which has shown up as a SELL!!!!!

[aphrodites] 15/6/2011 10:44

Rivaldo

Well just remember me when you want to sell and I promise you will not receive the bid side or below the the bid side for 25k or more.

That does of course depend on the market at the time and how the share is marked up on any announcement. I do not chase prices!

Why make the MM's rich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[rivaldo] 15/6/2011 09:22

Aphrodites, I've been a shareholder here for a looooong time, so am merely doing a bit of small top-slicing.

I'm quite happy to sit and wait with the large majority of my holding, and have no doubt that what WJ says will come to pass, but having made very nice profits now, I'm also happy to take something off the table and reallocate it to other stocks.

Especially if those stocks show greater short-term upside than IGP given the rather downbeat forecast of 3p EPS for this year.

Which means no doubt that IGP will announce a huge new contract later today :o))

[wjccghcc] 15/6/2011 08:39

APHRODITES

I talk to Parris now and then as have been a large shareholder for several years.

Regarding acquisitions, not sure if he's made a public statement to that effect, but it's certainly been mentioned at a couple of AGMs. The issue is that there really isn't much in their space, targets are expensive, and the risks of integration are very high (as in Actividentity's experience). e.g, they could have bought to expand the MyID CMS to an IDCMS but decided to do it internally with the result that the product is much more flexible and easy to deploy than if they'd tried to combine two different systems.

They've come from nowhere to being global leader on a shoestring budget and are now invited to the table for every major project. In a way, they're victims of their own success in that they now need to expand their infrastructure to support all these project bids and that means upfront costs versus revenue payback in 1-2 years. Their competition is pretty much nowhere apart from AI who have their own short-term issues with HID Global. Even Microsoft, who originally bought Alacris to do precisely what IGP does, have decided not to do it themselves but have partnered with IGP. The time and investment required for a new entrant makes it extremely unlikely anyone else will enter the market.

Once MyID is expanded to include mobile credentials, they'll approach the likes of Boeing, Lockheed, Microsoft and BT to beta test it. With them on board, you can see the potential.

Your comment regarding the protracted timetable and resultant cheap takeout is very close to the mark. I think it's Parris's biggest fear that due to the lumpy nature of the business, they miss a forecast, the share price drops and the long-term shareholders force them to sell up before they can capitalise on their position. However, I suspect that with 6mm net cash in the bank increasing at 2mm pa and the fact that any forecast miss wouln't change the business case at all, any share price dip would be short-lived.

This is the hottest area in the IT world at the moment and only going to get hotter. Current solutions are basically sticking plasters and at some point CTOs and governments are going to have to take their heads out of the sand and put their hands in their pockets to implement secure digital credential management across most areas of life. It's a question of when, not if IMHO.

[felix99] 15/6/2011 08:07

try K3 business for one :-). Not that I advocate that route but it can work in certain areas.

[yump] 15/6/2011 07:51

Maybe I don't recall enough companies, but I can't recall a company in the last few years that has grown by acquisition and also produced good share price performance. So quite pleased that they are growing organically.

Particularly not keen to see acquisitions when the organic growth is not yet fixed, unless companies can be picked up dirt cheap, which is unlikely in this area ?

Consolidating a group of cheap companies and using economies of scale in rationalising the costs is good in theory, but it doesn't seem to work out that often in practice.

If the company has a good enough product, USP etc. then it should be able to grow well organically, unless its competing against much larger ones with more resources, although that obviously isn't a recipe for success as we know from Actividengity.

[aphrodites] 15/6/2011 07:41

WJC

Good post.

You seem to be very close to the company from the information you post. I have no problem with this at all as I am in a similar position with another company of which I hold a very large stake.

I find your comment ". They've looked at acquisitions but can't find anything they view as good enough value/quality" very interesting. Has Parris made a public statement to this effect?

But interesting to see you share the same view as me about organic expansion. The only problem with this is that the time-table to growth becomes more protracted and exposes them to being more likely to be take over victim in the mean time.

More importantly, I agree about your view on the likely share price action when they make a major announcement. Parris gave enough hints in his recent statement that there is something in the pipe-line.

With the lack of liquidity in the market I cannot believe that Rivaldo really believes he will be able to get back into the stock just like that, unless of course he only has a small holding.

I now have quite a substantial holding and I am quite prepared to buy more stock as and when it is offered in any size in the market.

What does surprise me is that the two institutions holding stock do not make a point of trying to buy more every 3 months and push the price higher. Maybe they are there anyway but with a little more evidence the price would be in the mid 80's.

[aphrodites] 15/6/2011 07:26

RIVALDO

As you should know by now trying to buy or sell shares in IGP in any size is like watching paint dry.

The MM's clearly have a buyer in the wings and once they know they have a seller all they do is widen the spread on a sale of 2000 shares and rip the seller off.

Try to sell 25k today and they will probably only bid you 72p.

Would you be prepared to deal direct with me through my broker if you want to sell any reasonable size? If so I shall give you a number to contact me on.

[rambutan2] 15/6/2011 02:26

WJ, likewise, I always appreciate your input. The "quote" from Mr Parris says it all.

When I read this piece a few weeks ago it made me think of IGP...

[yump] 14/6/2011 23:12

I think I'd rather be in and a bit bored for a while, than out and then check one morning to find it had jumped. IGP have too many irons in the fire.

[igoe104] 14/6/2011 17:25

Possbilites here, especially as entrust are one of our pkI partners.

also lots of up-coming biometric database id card projects in africa. israel, sudan, nigeria. are just a few this year.



The United Arab Emirates has chosen Entrust Inc. to provide PKI-based national ID technology to the country. The Emirates Identity Authority is providing smart national ID card to citizens and expatriates that aim to enhance the stability and safety of the people and government of the UAE.

The program is adopting PKI technology to position the UAE ID program with some of the most advanced technology available. By employing the latest visual and biometric security features and embedded PKI technology, the ID cards will validate the identity of each individual and provide strong authentication to applications.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the majority of citizens already registered for cards, this marks the next phase of the Identity Authority's program to integrate the nations IDs for secure access to online government services. All citizens are required to register for a card by the end of June 2011.

Emirates Identity Authority's program establishes a modern population register in order to facilitate government services as well as to provide the required information for supporting strategic planning and the allocation of resources throughout the UAE.

Through this project, Emirates ID is also responsible for the issuance of electronic identity cards for the whole population in the country in order to verify and confirm the identity of each individual through a unique personal number linked to the biological features of the individual and storied in a smart card.

[carly2] 14/6/2011 13:27

Thanks for that WJ - you always put things in perspective!
Best wishes all

[wjccghcc] 14/6/2011 13:15

Dramatic would be winning one of the 10 National ID card contracts they're bidding on...

I'm not surprised by Finncap's forecasts. IGP are now financially secure with 6mm net cash and generating 2mm cash per year. They've looked at acquisitions but can't find anything they view as good enough value/quality and given their market position and pre-eminent client list, it's clear that organic expansion is the way to go. Every day there is another news story on cybersecurity breaches or ID fraud (see igoe's article above). With the advent of mobile devices, the only way to ensure security is encryption, and for that you need strong ID and the ability to issue/track/secure millions of encryption keys which is precisely where MyID is global leader in the smart card area. Part of the cost increase is precisely because they are now globally acknowledged as market leader so that they are asked to be part of so many bid teams (often 2 or 3 for the same project). Each bid team needs to be supported and that takes headcount.

If they acquired a company then you'd look at pre-amortisation EPS which would continue to grow (as you do with Idox or KBT). Yet because they're doing it organically, it all has to be expensed and so EPS suppressed. Parris told me that if they were a private company, he'd reinvest the entire profits this year and target breakeven, such is the future opportunity.

Competitively and technically, they've never been stronger. Microsoft is no longer a threat but now a partner as MyID now enables credential management with their FIM product. Actividentity is tied up in the integration with HID Global. The main threat (as it has always been) is the timing of contracts - something over which they have little control or visibility. However, if they do have a weak half at some point, it will not change their market position or future potential one iota, particularly now the company is much stronger financially.

It's clear to me that we are moving towards a world of information encryption and biometric authentication for services in most areas of life - passwords, fobs, magnetic stripe cards just aren't secure enough. Every time there's a breach like sony or (today) the US senate, they say they've fixed it but the following week they get hacked again. It's only a question of when the tipping point is reached and governments force action.

Will the share price stagnate and drift - quite possibly. But you're never going to be able to buy back in in size unless you're extremely lucky. One National ID card contract and the share price will be up 10p before you can say "ID fraud".

[rivaldo] 14/6/2011 12:45

I'm surprised Finncap are only forecasting 3p EPS this year, even allowing for increased R&D and staff costs.

IGP's attractions are obvious, but a P/E of 26 might mean a period of share price stagnation for some time. I've sold some recently simply to finance shorter-term opportunities and take some profits, and I may do so again given the likelihood that I'll be able to build my holding back up over time unless something dramatic happens.

[shanklin] 14/6/2011 12:17

Perhaps Sony should buy IGP.

[igoe104] 14/6/2011 11:57

WORTH A READ.

[rambutan2] 13/6/2011 02:04

LL, thanks for that - yes, I watched them all. What comes across is MyID's flexibility and ease of use. And Intercede's single minded focus on the MyID portfolio. Lots of possibilities and £ signs for the future!

[looby loo] 09/6/2011 22:06

I don't recall anyone posting Intercede's YouTube channel.

So here you go guys; Everything you wanted to know about MyID ..... but were afraid to ask.

Intercede MyID PIV v9
Product Launch
Washington DC
10 February 2011

split into 8 videos: Parts 2 to 9.
(There's no Part 1, which I think would probably have been their opening movie.)

[aphrodites] 07/6/2011 18:58

Archa

Many thanks for pointing that out. My error.

[archa] 07/6/2011 17:35

Aphrodites, may I correct a conclusion that you draw in the fifth paragraph of your post. The £747K legal costs to which you refer were charged in 2009/10, not the year ended 2010/11. They were paid in the latter year thus affecting what would otherwise have been a bank balance of over £6.75m. It would not have affected the reported profit of £2.0m at all.

[felix99] 07/6/2011 17:03

Maybe they should seek a US listing as well Aphro - look at VEL Velti if you want to see a company rerated for U S investors.

Mr Parris if you are reading I think it is something you should consider and with the US listing it will get the share price to reflect more rapidly the value you have built up to date - so should any Yankee doodle company come visiting to buy you and us out we start from a much higher base.

Anyway well done so far - have held for over 4 years having never held any share for more than 4 months in the past generally - although I 'm finding as my porty grows I need to start holding more as its difficult to trade in and out of beauties like IGP in any size.

[aphrodites] 07/6/2011 16:45

Having been at meetings all morning I have now had the opportunity to read and digest the full set of results. What a pity Mr Parris's abbreviated early comments did not match the quality of the full and enlightening statement which followed later.

I apologize to him for my comments this morning but with such a good set of results behind him I believe his advisors could have chosen better words to emphasise the success of these results.

The full Chairman's statement really does highlight the potential of the company's future prospects. More importantly it sets out quite concisely the business plans for the coming year against which its success can be measured. So many Chairmen these days do not like to provide information upon which they can be held accountable. Well done Mr Parris.

As can be seen from item 2 SEGMENTAL REPORTING over 57% of the present revenue comes from the USA and only 13.5% from Europe and 8.8% from the Rest of the World. As has been highlighted, the growth trend in the USA across the sector is likely to continue and with both sizable Government and corporate customers having been captured, many more are likely to follow in their footsteps. Reputation in the USA is one of the driving factors for success. Therefore, their investment there has been fully justified and will assist to support the growth they anticipate. I believe this is likely to continue at a pace which is far faster than Parris wishes to acknowledge at this time. But just as importantly the opportunity to attract business globally is likely to feature more prominently in the next trading year. I would not be surprised to see the announcement of several large contracts from the southern hemisphere.I believe if Parris had been more upbeat with his forecast he could have been accused of being OTT!

What a pity the figures had to support the legal costs of £747k. Just think what a profit of nearly £3m would have looked like in the headlines. But to my mind the most important factor is the potential to widen and diversify their markets on a global basis. And the statement by Parris that IGP is one of the world's leading developers and suppliers of identity management software highlights the advantage they have in marketing their wares and achieving that success.

To my mind a 160p take out price would discredit the potential value of this company. IGP is going to be worth a lot more 12 months down the road. But I would not be surprised to see an announcement in the next 2/3 months that they have received an approach from a USA based company. Companies like this do not grow on trees. Anyone in this business with a few spare bob in their coffers would be well advised to buy them now. They will cost a lot more down the road.

And there is the added attraction under the Funding section of the hint of a potential dividend down the road when the Board considers it appropriate.

All good stuff to take this share price higher and to challenge the £1 barrier.

I put a bid in this afternoon to buy 50k at sub 80p but was unsuccessful.