Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 31/8/2009 21:39

Back to IGP

I.C. Buy tip 16th July had this to say:-

Even when organisations' revenues are being squeezed, they are unlikely to compromise on security. This was borne out by recent full-year results from identity technology company Intercede, which doubled revenues and moved into profit during the 12 months. Intercede provides software that registers and vets ID data and ID smart cards.
The group currently licences software to a number of government organisations, including the US federal authorities, military bases and the NHS. In fact, public sector clients account for almost half its revenues. It charges an implementation fee to clients and a licence fee per card issued on top of maintenance and support charges. Licences span between five and 10 years, so revenues are not all accounted for in the year of contract announcement.
According to broker JM Finn, existing contracts should generate about £15m of revenue over the next five years, while support and maintenance fees, which tend to be recurring, account for a further 20 per cent of overall sales. So long-term visibility is strong. However, shorter-term revenues are less assured, because fees from new contracts will only materialise as the contracts are implemented and the precise timing of this is still the subject of some uncertainty. The group's relatively fixed cost base means that revenue from further contract wins should feed quickly through to profits.
The UK remains Intercede's largest market accounting for 44 per cent of sales, but a slew of new deals in the US - including one with Lockheed Martin - means that this market is a close second, accounting for 37 per cent of last year's revenue. The group also signed new deals in Australia and Europe, and chairman and chief executive Richard Parris is keen to continue to drive Intercede's geographical diversification.
Improved cash generation has also allowed Intercede to convert £1.96m of convertible loans last May, which leaves the balance sheet debt-free.

A cause for concern is a patent infringement lawsuit that was filed against Intercede by ActivIdentity Corp last October. Intercede has responded by filing a counterclaim, but has not made any provisions on its accounts.

Finncap forecast for current year

Turnover £6.80m
PTP £1.60m
EPS (fully diluted)3.3p

Defensive end-markets and longer-term visibility make Intercede a resilient bet in the current climate. The geographic diversity adds to appeal, while a clean balance sheet should help keep Intercede on the radar of any would-be private equity or trade buyers. According to broker Panmure Gordon, shares in the software sector on average trade at 12 times expected earnings, but given Intercede's slew of defensive traits, its shares deserve a premium rating. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 47p, 12 June 2009

Regards,
GHF

[yump] 31/8/2009 20:39

Sooner or later on every thread there's a mosquito and most of the time they just make a high pitched whine and cause an irritating itch ;-)

[the last supper] 31/8/2009 19:20

Low growth? What are you on about?

Turnover to 31 March 2008 was £2.81m
Turnover to 31 March 2009 was £5.70m


Pre-tax profit to 31 March 2008 was minus £0.18m
Pre-tax profit to 31 March 2009 was £1.41m


Earnings per share to 31 March 2008 was minus 0.2p
Earnings per share to 31 March 2009 was 4.7p


At least IGP seems to attract a lot of interest from GCM punters: Howdy Do Da, kent_paul, denarii, et al. Or are they all the same person?

[denarii] 31/8/2009 17:40

if the stock is so fantastic why is revenue low, growth low and not many trading updates?

[igoe104] 31/8/2009 09:54

Worth a read

[glasshalfull] 28/8/2009 13:57

Agree. Lot more short-termism amongst investors.
Best time to pick up stock at a reasonable price.

With AGM scheduled for 16th Sept then there's always a possibility for contract / trading news either in the run up. In any case, a trading update normally materialises end Sept/ start Oct to coincide with end of half year.

Nothing I'm aware of that suggests anything other than strong trading following on from outlook statement issued on June 10th:-

"...The Board therefore believes Intercede is very well positioned to continue its growth notwithstanding these challenging times.
We look forward with confidence to reporting on our progress during the current year and beyond."

Regards,
GHF

[wjccghcc] 28/8/2009 13:05

It was ever thus.

[igoe104] 28/8/2009 12:54

Shareholders are strange creatures, they lose interest if there isnt any news for a month. things havent changed over a course of a month so why the sudden lost of interest. all these folks who have sold will buy back in when news comes out again then sell again when things go quite a month or so later. cant see the point myself.

[237gmoney] 28/8/2009 12:15

All seems a bit flat here at the moment though and the share price decline is hurting when most other shares are rising about now. Is anyone going to the AGM...

[glasshalfull] 28/8/2009 10:07

Thanks igoe.

"Thales, leader in information systems and communications security, announces that SafeSign, the company's identity management and authentication solution, has successfully completed MasterCard evaluation for its Advanced Authentication for Chip. MasterCard Advanced Authentication for Chip is the latest extension to EMV, the international card-based authentication solution. Building on their long-standing relationship, Thales and MasterCard continue to work together to help banks fight online fraud and ensure maximum consumer confidence in online transactions by supporting both newly issued and existing EMV cards."

Augurs well for IGP.

Made a few small top ups amounting to 10k @ 41p - for children's funds.

Regards,
GHF

[denarii] 19/8/2009 23:23

their website has lots of flowery language but no details on sales and profits!

[denarii] 19/8/2009 23:22

watch and learn shad1

[shaid1] 19/8/2009 12:08

more than GCM where u seem to be losing your shirt kent LOLOL

[iicb] 14/8/2009 18:05

Acc - we need to know about this patent infringement to get this moving properly either way..... this could end up being a very long drawn out affair which may/may not go IGP's way.... they seem confident, just hope the court shares it....

You said 22 days until the AGM, hope that's working days.... else your maths is wrong.... "The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at 11.00 am on Wednesday 16 September 2009 at Lutterworth Hall."

Regards,
iiCB

[accumulat0r] 14/8/2009 12:15

Thanks for all the info igoe. It provide good fuel for thought and helps me stay alert to IGP's potential.

Just 22 trading days until the AGM.
Hopefully we'll get a trading update.

If all these buys at just above 43p the past 3 days are one person building a position, that person is getting filled at a bloody good price.

'Wish I had some spare cash to load up at 43p.

[kent_paul] 13/8/2009 20:00

Pym where are the fabled contracts then? No updates are bad news

[igoe104] 13/8/2009 19:45

This is right up igp street.

[iicb] 11/8/2009 18:41

There is lots of project mentions on the boards of what IGP could be involved in, but no news from IGP themselves, it's all getting a little disappointing of late, but typically we see with IGP more in the winter months....

Regards,
iiCB

[igoe104] 10/8/2009 08:14

Also i expect intercede to do well out this project.

[igoe104] 10/8/2009 08:09

The delayed hspd-12 project is 60% complete.

[igoe104] 06/8/2009 08:07

I dont have to explain anything to anyone archa, nobody ever tells me what to do. (apart from girlfriend and daughter.)

and if you dont like or dont want to read my comments put me in the filter list, its as simple as that.