Intec Telecom Systems Share Discussion Threads

[kirk2] 31/3/2010 13:38

this looks cheap and oversold time to get in

[tricky1992000] 31/3/2010 13:37

I am just guessing from looking at the trades, there are no longer those 250,000 sells appearing.

[andyc100] 31/3/2010 13:35

Whats level 2 like? If the seller has finished then should increase nicely over the next few day as this will look like a bargain to institutions.

[tricky1992000] 31/3/2010 13:32

the big seller seems to have finished, price should start to recover now.

[pre] 31/3/2010 13:17

...some big buys coming in....yanks buying??

[kimball808] 31/3/2010 13:14

SJ - are you estimating an increase in cash since the last stats to arrive at 30p

Rgds

[smellyjim] 31/3/2010 12:53

yes and Numis are around 7p. Brokers very varied! Interesting though with the cash pile, dismissed this one this morning having not realised 30p of cash on the books.

[rivaldo] 31/3/2010 12:48

Not a holder, but watching with interest.

Good discussion on Alphaville today - RBS have dropped their forecast to just 2.8p EPS!

[smellyjim] 31/3/2010 12:33

Numis are bullish of all the brokers stating this as very possible t/o target now. They've at least 30p of cash and debt free so at 56p pe is around 5/6 mark, madness yes considering a pe of 18 would be tagged to a co like ITL. Quite possible with 10% of co alreadt traded we have seen stakes bought. Convergys of the U.S has long been touted as keen to takeover ITL, big chance now coming?

[andyc100] 31/3/2010 12:22

At the end of the day this is a profitable company and that makes the 40% drop well overdone. Saw the same things happen at Lamprell about a year ago. Profit warning caused a massive drop but by the end of the week people realised things were not that bad and the price recovered. Hoping for the same here. IMHO

[volvo] 31/3/2010 12:17

Could see 10pc of the company traded today lol.

Averaged at 57.5p and happy to watch this out.

Buyers and sellers happy with this price too.

[tratante] 31/3/2010 12:08

Surely overdone and got to be a steal with no debt and now a PE of 4.5

[robwoodt] 31/3/2010 12:05

Nearly 26 million traded today! Incredible volume considering the norm is less than a million a day, Sometimes a few hundred thousand!

Hoping for a bit of releif towards the end of the day ....Gulp!

[pre] 31/3/2010 11:53

got to be a takeover target now imo....

[traderinthemaking] 31/3/2010 11:42

Some massive sells going through (approx. 2.8M shares just now...), I wonder who is buying them... Could the take-over that was in the pipe few years ago re-surface?

TITM

[debbiegee] 31/3/2010 11:33

Are brokers notes normally issued after trading statements ?

[robwoodt] 31/3/2010 11:19

i wish i'd have been a littel more patient and not loaded up at 59.5!

D'oh!

[volsung] 31/3/2010 11:16

Thats why I didn't rush in after the last fall kimball. Better safe than sorry

[kimball808] 31/3/2010 11:08

they say profit warnings come in three's...just one more to go

[dvsfm] 31/3/2010 10:38

quite a harsh drop today, should be a good entry point and recover over time

[smellyjim] 31/3/2010 10:22

cash pile, if correct then surely well overdone..

Intec Telecom full-year pretax profit up 80%
By Hannah Benjamin, Dow Jones Newswires
Tuesday 24 November 2009
U.K.-based billing specialist pays first dividend.
Business telecommunications services firm Intec Telecom Systems PLC Tuesday paid its first full-year dividend after posting a rise in fiscal 2009 pretax profit and sales, and said it enters fiscal 2010 with an improved order book.
Intec, which provides billing and other services for customers including Carphone Warehouse Group PLC and Vodafone Group PLC, posted a pretax profit for the year to Sept. 30 of GBP24.7 million, increased from GBP13.7 million a year earlier.
Sales climbed 24% to GBP167.9 million from GBP135.8 million following a string of new customer wins. It signed 24 new licence deals in the year, 15 of which were with new clients.
Intec also posted a much-improved cash position of GBP74.8 million from GBP28.9 million a year earlier and said it would pay an inaugural full-year dividend of 1 pence a share.
Intec--which has entered fiscal 2010 with a strong pipeline of prospects and contracted revenue 20% higher than at the same point a year earlier--said it plans to increase investment in products and skills next year in a bid to offer a competitive advantage to its customers.

[bobsidian] 31/3/2010 10:20

Closer scrutiny of the last set of full financial statements reveal some interesting points.

That the reported EPS was inflated and flattered by significant tax credits. Strip those out on the basis of being possible one time events and you are left with a true basic EPS of around 5.5p. If the maximum impact felt was some 15% decline in revenues and that decline were able to be mitigated by a proportionate reduction in cost of sales then the impact after tax would see the EPS drop to around 3.25p. In a worst case scenario ITL may be trading on a P/E ratio of around 17 times 2009/10 earnings even at its current share price.

However, ITL is essentially debt free and in this stockmarket environment such shares are ascribed hefty premiums. Though in an unrelated sector, ARM is a good example of this. Add to that a net asset value per share and a net tangible asset value per share of around 63p and 33p respectively and you can sense the brutality of effectively taking the share price into ex-growth territory.

Not quite as clear cut an opportunity as first perceived. Doubtless long term holders could not believe their luck when ITL attained the heady heights of £1.20 per share on a possible misperception by the stockmarket of the true underlying financial performance of the business.

Back to pricing in reality no doubt. If the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move since December 2008 to its peak in January 2010 holds then at best I suspect that any recovery move to correct its oversold technical state may be restricted to around 69-70p before once more moving lower.