Inspiration Healthcare Share Discussion Threads

[backtogo] 07/4/2020 15:04

oh dear 50p

[geovest] 07/4/2020 13:57

Don't blame the MM's or institutional investors. It is probably private investors bailing out because the share price didn't double as they expected, now they are selling out at a loss.

MM's and II's know how companies are valued, most PI's don't. A simple way to look at it is: The value of a company is the discounted cashflow of all future earnings. A huge £4m order for ventilators is a one-off event, it changes the value of the company only to the extent of the one-off profit. As they act as distributor, their profit margin is probably below 10%. If we are generous, that's £400k profit. The current market Cap for the company is £25m. So, this order, if delivered in full, would increase that by £400k or 1.6%. The share price before the announcement was 64p. The order could only ever have added 1p to the share price, but unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding pushed the price up to nearly 90p. It is probably those shareholders now selling....

Having said that, still a good company with potential value if you take at least a 5 year view.

[lindowcross] 07/4/2020 11:17

It might be worth you nice people looking also at Gooch & Housego GHH, another Brit company which, on account of it being largely unknown and unappreciated by UK investors, is worth buying and forgetting about for a decade or two. It's mainly involved in high-tech lasers and other stuff beyond my pay grade but today's update confirms one of its divisions is involved in the business of making parts for ventilators. See below:

In the UK all of our five manufacturing sites are open though the unique nature of our Torquay facility is such that it will need to operate at a reduced capacity in order to rigorously adhere to the Government's COVID-19 guidelines. ITL is now operating at near to full capacity. This is due to increased demand for medical diagnostic kits and a unit which improves respiratory function and oxygen supply, as part of a ventilator system for patients in critical care, including those with COVID-19.

[lammylover] 07/4/2020 11:17

MMs drive price down again on 1 x 25k sell and a few other sells. However volume is tiny and looks like most sensible investors are not selling at these crazy, daft prices! No doubt MMs will have some more tricks up their sleeves to try and drive out a few more shares before moving price back to 65p. Just remember, next trading update should be good and will be around 20th April. Rich

[lammylover] 06/4/2020 18:23

Share price at 64p is WAY BELOW the share price reached when they announced the last results being ahead of expectations - price then rose to 72p. It appears that there is still a large seller selling off blocks of shares into any share price rise and effectively keeping the price down. But also there are lots of large buys going through sub 66p.

At current price of 64p, there is nothing factored in for the £5m order from NHS received in March. Quite why the large seller is offloading, is anyone's guess?

All I can say is that the next update on results should be around 20th April (based on last 2 years RNS trade updates) and I can't see it being anything but positive.

Even if the NHS ventilators are still in transit, we know the order is good and its almost certain that other orders from NHS and other countries since the CV outbreak will be significantly larger than normal.

Summary = absolute bargain at 64p; however its a crazy market out there!! Rich

[oohrogerpalmer] 06/4/2020 14:48

Think we need update that they can deliver the orders they have in hand 1st !!!

[rumobejo] 06/4/2020 14:29

you won't sell at 90p when you see 100p in close distance, greed is a built-in feature in humans.

now get some ventilators and keep pushin.

breaks off at 70!!!

[lammylover] 06/4/2020 14:08

I'm hoping for 90p and then sell out. it all depends on how much additional volume they get and if it is ongoing.

I can imagine in a couple of months CV will be forgotten and people move on to other sectors as they are fickle and looking for immediate returns

....That said the patent that IHC have in the USA looks interesting and could be a real money spinner longterm

[rumobejo] 06/4/2020 14:01

70p bang
80p bang
90p bang bang

[lammylover] 06/4/2020 13:54

Another ventilator order would be nice; however I think its more likely to get a "pleased to announce" trade update that revenue is way ahead of last year and that they expect EBITDA to be the same. This should push this comfortably through 80p in my opinion. Its just a matter of holding for a couple of weeks and avoid the daily up and downs of the share price noise, as a few PIs get mugged for their shares at 59-64p. Good luck. Rich

[rumobejo] 06/4/2020 13:05

need a ventilator here urgently

90p

[lammylover] 06/4/2020 12:06

30.4k buy went through earlier at 65.7p. Small PIs selling at low prices then 10k+ buys hoovering these up. Next trade update due around 20th of Month. Can't see it being anything but good in today's CV world. Will include £5m NHS orders received since last update at beginning of year. A buy and hold, ready for RNS results. Rich

[lammylover] 05/4/2020 09:48

Hi John, can't access the twitter link - could you supply details on the gist of the feed? Thanks Rich

[lammylover] 03/4/2020 13:10

There's at least 30% upside here if you look at range. I reckon MMs will walk it back up to 65p next. That obviously isn't my target sell price! LOL

[dan_the_epic] 03/4/2020 13:07

Who would buy for 4% upside

You're buying a distributor of third party products such as those from Fresenius Medical. Those are the real companies. Why do people think a distributor is going to see a rocketing and sticking share price increase? Lack of understanding of what they are actually buying?

At least Novacyt are making all their own product that they are getting demand for. And even that is hugely speculative. It will underperform when markets recover and the virus subsides

[lammylover] 03/4/2020 13:05

Mass buying at 60-61p during auction earlier - price driven down on low volume with a few, small repeated sells. I hope you took opportunity to buy in at this price before MMs walk it back up again to 65p.

[lammylover] 03/4/2020 13:00

In your dreams - presumably you are hanging around here like a bad smell as you want to buy in at a lower level.

[backtogo] 03/4/2020 12:55

oh dear support broke 50p comes

[lindowcross] 03/4/2020 12:37

remove duplicated post

[lindowcross] 03/4/2020 11:45

Aside from earnings, does anyone have any idea how you could value the aggregate position of accrued intellectual property, design experience,sales and purchasing contacts, relationship with NHS and others built up over at least 20 years, ability to negotiate a way through a complex regulatory structure for supplying devices, lack of debt and skilled labour?

[dan_the_epic] 03/4/2020 11:17

Rampers on twitter getting brutally exposed. Their use of caps lock doesnt work when there is what looks like a background seller happy to take this price.

17x trailing earnings is too much

[lindowcross] 03/4/2020 10:28

This is a very safe, conservatively run small company with excellent management who have a good relationship with the NHS. The supply a number of medical devices and the ventilator contract may be distracting short term investors from the long term attraction of this company. More important to me is the agreement with a US university to develop and commercialise a patented respiratory device designed for use in neonatal intensive care. Recommended time horizon for holding a company like this is at least five years, preferably for ever.

[lammylover] 03/4/2020 09:23

The weird thing is that everyone will pile in when news comes and they will be happy to pay more for a company selling medical equipment and ventillators! Its a crazy world we live in. Rich