Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[flavio_monteiro] 06/4/2018 10:49

squiresquire... now you have bought back in I don't suppose you are going to post anything negative until you sell!

[stealth wealth] 06/4/2018 10:49

We already know Lupuzor is better than Benlysta.

[stealth wealth] 06/4/2018 10:48

Why lock it in the morning. Do a days work first on it and then lock late afternoon.

[opodio] 06/4/2018 10:47

No point crying next week if you miss a 220% gain next week

[aussieb3] 06/4/2018 10:44

Weird there not dropping price with the sales at the min. Maybe a large order to fill in background or delayed buys

[l0ngterm] 06/4/2018 10:44

I am assuming the database is locked then.

[money maker1] 06/4/2018 10:41

1) 250,000 Lupuzor lupus patients at $25k pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
i.e. 5% of Global lupus sufferers, or 16.66% of developed markets sufferers.

-- Sales $6.25 billion pa (above), 30% royalty to Immupharma + $200 million pa licensing fee to Immupharma; gives $1.875 billion + $200 m = $2.075 billion pa revenues to Immupharma. 96%+ gross margin, say $1.57 billion pa net (after gross margin & tax, etc), on PE ratio of 20 = $31.4 billion market capitalisation for Immupharma = Approx Immupharma share price £179.

2) 500,000 Lupuzor lupus patients (double above) at $25k pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
i.e. 10% of Global lupus sufferers, or 33.33% of developed markets sufferers.
= Approx Immupharma share price £358.

3) Then add something to the above for the numerous other indications Lupuzor P140 could treat, including rheumatoid arthritis with a market size of $28 billion pa.

[verydereky] 06/4/2018 10:37

Intraday pennant has formed, less volatility rather than more which I was expecting. On high volume also good.

[money maker1] 06/4/2018 10:37

The IMM rocket is taking off.

P.S.
Making £millions is good. LOL.

[douglas macarthur] 06/4/2018 10:37

One team is pushing this up, it will end in tears.

[paxman] 06/4/2018 10:36

You're right don chepe £8 is greedy. But entirely reasonable. If P3 is positive then £8 is £1.1bn. Quite cheap for an auto immune platform with no side effects. In fact very cheap if the data is clearly good.

One could easily make a case for acquiring at £20 a share = £2.8bn. Allowing for the size of the addressable markets.

£340 is currently fantasy but if - highly unlikely - IMM stayed independent and used its cash flow to acquire other pharma businesses with existing sales and distribution infrastructures then not impossible in say 10 years. So not 'delusional' just highly unlikely because on good P3 data IMM will be bought out IMHO.

[opodio] 06/4/2018 10:35

The rise must really be hurting those who have no shares

[spmc] 06/4/2018 10:34

One thing to not forget with the broker 800p target is that they state that it is very conservative and if Lupuzor achieves even small percentage increase in market penetration than there forecasts then the target price will be exponentially higher (so maybe even 8000p)

[l0ngterm] 06/4/2018 10:30

Aha just read that again 34000. Yeah no comment.. will stick with broker target.

[l0ngterm] 06/4/2018 10:29

Don all the best, as for the 340-800, that's the broker targets so not wild. All subject to results mind you.

[divinessence] 06/4/2018 10:27

Thanks for this link

It says ...

Top Key Players:-

Anthera Pharmaceuticals BMS
GSK
ImmuPharma
Merck Serono
UCB

[bittorrent] 06/4/2018 10:26

Nearly a million shares traded and it's not even 10:30, says a lot to me.

[don chepe] 06/4/2018 10:25

I took off guys.

Good luck to all other hard core gamblers. Got a very nice profit, leaving some for the next men. It's best not to be greedy, like Mr Buffet always sells when there's greed, buy when there's fear.

Greedy talking of 800p, £340 per shares, clearly is delusional.

[squiresquire] 06/4/2018 10:24

che7

Saw your earlier post and have to agree i was lucky with my last trade, i think a little luck is needed with every trade as well as crossing the road and boiling a kettle of water. There is always the unexpected that could go wrong and not to accept that fact is just daft. I was though at the keyboard ready to buy back, that is the traders safety net.

that was my third actual trade since holding and the only reason i am happy to do so is because of the very very small number of shares in issue. I am as certain as one can be there will be a couple more opportunities before RNS day, if i have learned one thing in trading its how close to the wire the MMs will take a share price.

All good fun though, and so far profitable, just hope the RNS is good. There is an absolutely huge amount of money in this company on spec, if no result its truly curtains for anyone getting in at these prices, no chance for them to get out at all.

[paxman] 06/4/2018 10:23

che7win

Not sure I agree on your £5 per share for P140. If P3 comes in at say 20+% over placebo then that's proof of concept for other auto immune diseases as well. If you're a business development director at a big pharma, which is or plans to focus on auto immune diseases, you have no option but to present the IMM acquisition case to your board.

If the P3 data supports then IMHO £10 or more for P140 as we know it's the perfect auto immune therapy. £10 is 'only' £1.4bn. Any acquirer will get that back from lupus alone so other auto immune diseases - much bigger markets as we know - are in for free. No more perfect acquisition opportunity exists.

My guess is within 1 month of positive P3 data we'll get a 'We're in discussions with potential acquirers' RNS. It's the making of a business development executive's career.

All depends on positive P3 data.

[ny boy] 06/4/2018 10:21

Level 2 just strengthened

[j4ams1] 06/4/2018 10:11

@Che7win, your posts encouraged me to contact the company direct. So I did, extremely helpful, sincere and answered a lot of questions. Reading your past posts I believe I got similar responses to you. I feel extremely happy invested here, even if results are not as good as expected. I was thinking about a derisk, but now firmly believe I do not need to. Will hold long term, like you said my target is £30-45