Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[thebigshortfella] 24/2/2018 16:43

Flavio - I understand, it bodes well but there’s no guarantee that it will continue into phase 3.

For all we know that 62% figure includes drugs that had similar limited side effects.

I am long on IMM but I am cautious about a successful outcome. The odds are better than a coin toss but only marginally so.

[ashehzi] 24/2/2018 16:35

Flavio, Your last post was very bullish and made me felt why I didn't buy more earlier on as i was aware of the company. Currently 17000 shares but surely could've been more for the same amount invested.

[flavio_monteiro] 24/2/2018 16:15

Thebigshortfellow. I believe the reason the FDA granted Lupuzor a SPA and fast track approval was due to the lack of side effects. I believe from all the recent RNS that this has continued. In all Tim McCarthys interviews he seemed to confirm this. The P140 modulates the immune system, not suppresses it.

Check out YouTube videos.

[top tips] 24/2/2018 15:24

The lead article in this weeks Investors Chronicle is about how large drug companies are desperate for new drugs due to expiry of their own patents. More than a dozen companies are mentioned.



I think IMM will get a brilliant Lupuzor / P140 deal or takeover terms especially in the current industry climate.

[flavio_monteiro] 24/2/2018 14:57

Thebigshortfella, historically 62% for autoimmune drugs yes...but remember the main reason these failed were because they were immunosuppressant drugs with serious side effects. Lupuzor has no side effects....

Drug development is a balance between effectiveness and side effects.

[thebigshortfella] 24/2/2018 14:52

Scrutable - it’s not so much fear but aversion to losses that drives people the most.

I can’t recall which poster it was but someone posted the historical success rates at each stage of different types of drugs.

Historically, 62% (or thereabouts) of auto-immune drugs were successful at the P3 stage. This is probably the most unbiased indication we are going to get.

Good luck fella.

[flavio_monteiro] 24/2/2018 14:37

Scrutable....perhaps the Best Post I have seen on this B.B. for a long long time....

[scrutable] 24/2/2018 14:30

jpleight

Why? Are you forming a club?

[jpleight] 24/2/2018 14:20

scrutable are you nigerian by any chance?

[scrutable] 24/2/2018 14:16

I have too many fat fingers to type prolifically like che7wyn, but in post 15319 (and previously a few times), he has said it all (or nearly all) there is to say. The case is laid out for all to value and pointless to repeat every day in future until the result is published.

I am late to the possibilities of this share, having bought the first of several tranches in January, and have now risked as much as I can afford to lose.

This post is not a ramp but a declaration of my beliefs, and I would like to crush the derampers, for if successful, they destroy wealth. They do a lot of collateral damage, giving the newbies ,who lack confidence, sleepless nights.

Of course I could lose the lot of my investment and cut a sorry figure amongst friends to whom I have described a company and an illness they knew nothing about, and research in Switzerland which has stumbled on a simple truth about a peptide, which could change tens of millions of lives. It is not lupus I am referring to but the whole range of auto immune disease which plagues mankind eg asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, daibetes1 etc, and are next in line for phase3 trials of a possibly tweaked lupozor.

If the trial has succeeded then I hope to have 10 comfortable years ahead of my Centenary.

After that preamble here is my point I think of great importance to investors.

Fear seems to be much stronger than greed. Why else could the derampers succeed in sending investors scurrying to sell in the face of so much good news and portent? We should debate what are the chances of a failed trial.

I suggest 5-20% or less. It is certainly less than evens ie less than 50%; and what is the probability that Chairman Tim McCarthy's confidence is based on judgement of the story of the trial as it has unfolded - not least on the overwhelming desire for recruits to remain on it.

I think 60-80% (with 100% signifying certainty). What do you think about these figures for which I have suggested 5-20 downside,60-80 upside ie somewhere between 4:1 and 12:1? It's a far better loaded gamble than the shorters have tried to encourage you to believe, or even that I have cautiously tried to put to you.

[thebigshortfella] 24/2/2018 13:33

Hottingup:

0:15:

[hottingup] 24/2/2018 13:20

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) 2/2/2018

4 min 45 sec:
"If Lupuzor is successful and we are very confident ... it will become the standard treatment for lupus patients going forward, absolutely, without any doubt."

5 min 17 sec:
"What we've been seeing in the investor market place is an increasing interest in ImmuPharma as a company and Lupuzor as a potential drug in the future ... The Placing has allowed us to bring some very good healthcare focused institutional investors onto the shareholder register ... and to further exploit further indications for the P140 Platform from which Lupuzor comes ... it does have other applications, such as potentially Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis."

7 min 0 sec:
"As we go into the next exciting phase for ImmuPharma, we've had a lot of interest in the drug from potential licensing partners of which those discussions are ongoing, they will quicken up...once we get the results and its always good to have a strong balance sheet when you're going into those negotiations..."

8 min 6 sec:
"We do believe, on results to date and what we expect to see out of the Phase 3, that we will show greater efficacy than Benlysta but also...we have a completely benign side effect profile, which is really important."

9 min 15 sec:
"If we demonstrate the product profile, which I confidentally expect we will in this Phase 3 study, the potential for Lupuzor is a multi-billion dollar selling drug."




Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Two Interviews, 18/1/2018:

"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever...

...to be a relatively small UK company, sitting here as we do with this late stage product, owning 100% of it, from a commercial perspective that's really exciting as well because this is potentially a multi-billion dollar drug...this is definately going to be a product which will sell in the multi-billion dollars per year...

...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug...There are a number of discussions going on...so its exciting on a number of fronts."

6 min 45 sec:

"This [Lupuzor] could be selling in the billions of dollars per year, every year...We are ticking all the boxes in terms of the market potential, the profile of drug [Lupuzor] the lack of competition, we as a company own it 100%, so going on from here, the benefit to our shareholders in terms of the uplift in value of IMM based on this drug is exponential potentially..."

27 min 2 sec:

[hamhamham1] 24/2/2018 13:12

Doc. I am not sure why IMM would hold this meeting for private investors now as results are only a few weeks away? The only reason I can think is to counter the short worry and to try and get a cheer going to run the share price up to the results?
The £10m placing means they, as a research company, now have enough coffers in the bank to fund the next 12-18 months research maybe without having to go back to the market post results? (if not ideal outcomes on p3).

[top tips] 24/2/2018 13:00

Tim presents quite regularly. SM presents at conferences.

[doc robinson] 24/2/2018 12:49

One must ask why this presentation needs to take place now purpose?

[thebigshortfella] 24/2/2018 12:31

Teddy boy1 - you are displaying signs of confirmation basis. You are reading it how you want to read it.

It could just be neutral news...

[teddy boy1] 24/2/2018 12:10

Monday nights invitation to the meeting reads "is pleased to announce "If it is going to be bad news surely they would not be"pleased"

[top tips] 24/2/2018 11:00

I know IMM's Chairman Tim McCarthy is giving a presentation on the evening of Monday 26th February.

Am I right in thinking Prof Sylvianne Muller will also be giving a presentation on Friday 9th March?

[che7win] 24/2/2018 10:42

P140 has been tested for for other diseases beyond Lupus.

It is probably this that I think the market ignores most.
It works for other major disease indications, including Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn’s Disease, and Asthma.

This has not only been tested by Prof. Sylviane Muller's team, the peptide was sent out to other labs around the world to test within their set up and they received positive test results.

In other words, if phase 3 is successful, the valuation of IMM has not only to rise to reflect Lupuzor as an imminent commercially available drug, it has to rise to reflect P140 platform for other indications - Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn’s Disease, and Asthma.

These markets dwarf Lupus.
Then we have Nucant on top of this (IPP-204106), very promising on its own.

[wigwammer] 24/2/2018 10:21

In the event of a positive outcome, I won't be trading the first day, and not for anything less than double figures thereafter :)

[wigwammer] 24/2/2018 10:20

£5 price equates to an £800m valuation for 100% of a phase 3 blockbuster @ 95% gross margin. Wrong ball park. £10+ as a first step :)

[che7win] 24/2/2018 09:46

I mean, if you look at some other popular stocks, the charts look dire, really dire.

Not here.

[w1ndjammer] 24/2/2018 09:39

I think peeps who are seasoned IMM investors will lean more on Monday
night by talking to the investors that Pope bought onboard learn how they were approached and what was said and how big was the carrot etc.

Also don`t underestimate the power of bb`s IMM have constantly ranked
in the top 3 of the premium board and are in second place this morning. traders monitor these trends and will trade the stocks on busy threads. And traders are
needed to push the price up.

WJ.

[metis20] 24/2/2018 09:39

Just in case some are not sure if the investor evening has already happened! -

London Investor Evening

Monday 26 February 2018 @ 6pm

ImmuPharma PLC (LSE: IMM), specialist drug discovery and development company, is pleased to announce that Tim McCarthy, Chairman, will be presenting at an investor evening hosted by Turner Pope Investments (TPI) Ltd. TPI acted as agent in the recent £10 million fundraise by ImmuPharma.

[thebigshortfella] 24/2/2018 09:28

lodgeview - thanks, you are 100% correct. I should have typed £3.70.

What I forgot to add (I just did) is that it depends as to how quickly they can close their losing trade. I suspect that as institutional traders they can close their positions far faster than we can.