Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[flavio_monteiro] 26/2/2020 11:59

Long & Short. I thought you were "all in" in Metro? That has taken a battering on results this morning.

[long_and_short] 26/2/2020 11:54

Cheers lerichman,

We need to keep active this thread. Topping up more.


Putting all egg in one basket but that's fine.

[lerichman] 26/2/2020 00:36

Long_and_Short

Thanks for the reminder and warning :) I thought the board was dead in the water. So good to see so many people still participating.

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 23:54

No comment to Sir Nobby,

Far more intelligent and sensible than me so respect.

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 23:53

Lord,

Don’t be troll.

Keep investing.

You asked nicely and I thought, You’re nice and friendly so I replied honestly ( and also apologies )

We interacted first time I think, so I made my best effort as a nice member. I’m not sure what you want me to do to please you ?

Anyway, What’s true or not that I will leave it to you.

Focus on IMM. That’s what me and you need.

Am I made it clear ?

[lord loads of lolly] 25/2/2020 23:27

Yes, long_and_short is none other than.... drumroll please .... marie1980. The disguise was hardly subtle. Her reason given for the ID change even less so.

[nobbygnome] 25/2/2020 23:16

Ah so it’s Marie...

I should have recognised the language nuances....

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 20:14

Lerichman,

Please make sure to put few comments every now and then. Just don’t go away or else I will inbox you ;)

Where is master rsi ?!

[lerichman] 25/2/2020 17:59

Nobby:
The entire problem with the first phase 3 trial was that it was underpowered. To say that the DNA cohort which showed efficacy was too small for statistical significance is misleading as the entire trial was too small. Hence the large placebo effect.
They would not need to go back to a new phase 2b to adjust dosing levels/frequency. In either case, there very well may be a second phase 3 required should the first one prove succesful.

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 15:48

So it's a story. actually long story..

bottom-line, my marie1980 account is now closed, my bf leave me and here I'm with brand new profile.

Apologies i should have make it clear.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/2/2020 15:46

long_and_short - how come you've just changed your name from marie1980? I think we should be told.

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 14:57

This 14P is crazy silly price but I've dumped all my money in Metro's for tomorrow result. With favourable outcome, I would park here and forget for few years.

My short in shield still open but will close around 142 looking at stx share weakness.

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 14:55

Nobby,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but few days here you mentioned that even positive FDA P3 approval might not be possible. So atleast, you gave up little there which I appreciated.

Now i said very very conservative target of 30P which is to be honest easily achievable once terms and conditions agreed with FDA.

Then usual excitement and anticipation will defn drive this past around 50P or beyond.

this share wont achieve price of 180P like last time as now USA is gone from IMM but with rest of the world still with IMM, i think 80P is worth a shot or more optimistic 100P around read time.

[nobbygnome] 25/2/2020 14:03

>> long and short

Yes I don't disagree. Personally I think mid 20s is very possible on a positive FDA trial meeting. The positive outcome is not an absolute certainty but sufficiently likely to enable me to have a punt here.

[nobbygnome] 25/2/2020 13:46

There was a 1000 ug a month dose but there were problems seen at the injection site from memory. I think there was precipitation of the peptide but I may be misremembering that. But the bottom line is I don't think that was a fair test at a higher dose. Anyway more frequent dosing would be the way to go.

[flavio_monteiro] 25/2/2020 13:40

Nobby...They tried different doses in Phase 2 (part 1). SK will confirm?

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 13:40

Nobby is a tough guy to crack here I know.

But I think everyone on the same page here that we should see 30P sooner or later.
50P - I will give 50-50 shot. 70P defn not considering USA is gone now.

[nobbygnome] 25/2/2020 13:31

And the anti DNA signal was shown in a group too small and in a study not designed to investigate that end point so the result is unreliable.

And also yes if they decided to change the dose level or frequency another phase II would be required so it ain't going to happen. They will plough on with the inadequate (IMHO) dose.

[nobbygnome] 25/2/2020 13:28

Yes where have all the pumpers gone? I need them to pump it ahead of the FDA trial approval.....so that I can then dump the shares at a nice profit!

It's really strange being a (short term) bull here....

[long_and_short] 25/2/2020 13:19

Sorry to interrupt your discussion but where is master_rsi ?

[twohybrid] 25/2/2020 12:47

Would increasing dosage and frequency mean a new dose-finding study? So back to phase I?

[lerichman] 24/2/2020 23:45

Nobby:
Although I will concede that the MOA is a bit of a mystery. What is well know is that the drug has show efficacy in certain DNA subsets.
Without having seen the design of the new phase 3 trial, how can you possibly dismiss out of hand the potential success?
The new partner very well may significantly increase both the dosage as well as frequency of dosing. At a minimum they will focus on the DNA subset which has shown the most efficacy as well as focus the patient population in areas of the world where the resources exist to closely monitor dosing and quality control.
A solution for Lupus, which is so brilliantly simple, and shows no side effects deserves to be explored further in my opinion.

[amaretto1] 24/2/2020 07:51

Delusional.

[nobbygnome] 24/2/2020 07:30

>> lerichman

I am not sure everyone on the thread will want to go through all that again. However, in brief....

In experimental systems the peptide does show some activity although the MOA and site of action is not entirely clear, which is always a worry. However, the concentration of drug used in those experiments is way higher (at least 1000 fold) than the concentration ever reached in humans with the 200 ug every 28 day dosing schedule. Indeed the half-life is so short it will be all gone by the end of the first day so for the other 27 days of the dosing cycle there is nothing present. Consequently the science shows you the drug has no chance of working because the concentration is never high enough and hence my oft repeated mantra that it needs to be dosed way higher and more frequently. Add in the complexity of the disease and the dodgy disease end points which are well known within the field and I come to my conclusion, there is virtually no chance it will work. All IMHO and DYOR.....

But of course we won't know that result for at least 3 years so in the short term the pumper and dumpers will drive this higher at various stages. In the short term the value driver will be the trial approval by the FDA, which although not without risk probably will happen. So a short term punt....

[lerichman] 23/2/2020 22:36

Nobby: you say that this trial is ultimately doomed to failure, yet in the past you said you loved the science. So much so that you were trying to solicit your professional services to create a trial which would be successful through increasing the dosage, you mentioned that the current dosage is barely enough for a mouse to see any efficacy.
Now you say the science is flawed and the drug is doomed to failure, so which one is it?