Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 20/8/2009 17:16

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China's current-account surplus fell in the six months to June from a year earlier, the first decline in five years, as the global economic slowdown battered exports.

The surplus in the broadest measure of trade shrank 32 percent to $130 billion, according to preliminary figures posted today on the Web site of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the nation's top currency regulator. China's capital and financial account, which tracks investment flows, showed a surplus of $33.1 billion, down 54 percent from last year.

[briarberry] 19/8/2009 13:24

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks fell, driving the benchmark index into a so-called bear market more than 20 percent below this year's high, on concern the nation's economic recovery will falter as the government reins in lending.

Even with the recent decline, the Shanghai index is trading at 30.4 times reported earnings

[briarberry] 15/8/2009 17:26

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China wants to boost cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to develop trade and increase investment, said Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

...
Asean has said it wants the region to become a European Union-style economic community, without a common currency, by 2015. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam make up the regional organization.

Asean yesterday signed a free trade agreement with India, pledging to reduce tariffs for about 80 percent of goods between 2013 and 2016. A similar agreement with China is scheduled to take effect next year.

[briarberry] 11/8/2009 11:00

Exports fell 23% in July from a year earlier
Exports fell 21.4% in June from a year earlier


Imports fell 14.9 percent July
Imports were down 13.2% in June, much better than the 20% forecast and followed a 25.2% in May.

[briarberry] 10/8/2009 15:12

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's property sales surged 60 percent in the first seven months amid concern that record lending will stoke asset bubbles in the world's fastest-growing major economy.

The gain in the value of sales, announced by the statistics bureau on its Web site today, compares with a 53 percent increase in the first half from a year earlier. Real estate investment accelerated to 11.6 percent growth from 9.9 percent, the agency said.

Home prices in 70 major cities gained 1 percent in July from a year earlier, the biggest increase in nine months, the National Development and Reform Commission said today in a separate statement. Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated yesterday that monetary policy will remain unchanged, after climbing asset prices triggered speculation that a tightening could be imminent.

[briarberry] 03/8/2009 11:54

record lending and a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package...


Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China's manufacturing expanded in July as record lending and a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package stoked a recovery in the world's fastest- growing major economy.

The CLSA China Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.8, the highest level in a year, from 51.8 in June, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said today in an e-mailed statement. An official index, released Aug. 1, also expanded.

[hectorp] 03/8/2009 11:31

Too bad for the manager- iron bars might have been to hand. What might happen on a Bank? beat the boss with chequebooks.

[briarberry] 27/7/2009 12:40

"Chinese steel workers beat takeover boss to death over job cuts"

"Workers who beat to death a steel firm executive in north-east China had been told that 25,000 of them would lose their jobs in a takeover, according to sources quoted by state media."

[briarberry] 19/7/2009 23:48

Poorly Made in China: An Insider's Account of the Tactics Behind China's Production Game by Paul Midler. Hoboken, New Jersey, USA, John Wiley & Sons, April 2009. ISBN: 978-0-470-40558-1.

Poorly Made in China: An Insider's Account of the Tactics Behind China's Production Game provides fascinating and disturbing answers. Chinese manufacturers cut corners wherever they can, from product quality to factory equipment and maintenance. They unilaterally change product and packaging specifications to trim costs. They raise prices after the deal is signed, leaving the importer to absorb the added cost. They reproduce their customers' products for sale at higher margins in other markets.

...
To Midler, lead paint in toys and melamine in baby milk formula are not surprises but predictable outcomes from a manufacturing culture that takes customers for granted and assumes no responsibility for its outputs.
...
Midler laughs at "No Animal Testing" labels on Johnson Carter products - because there's no testing at all.

[briarberry] 18/7/2009 15:53

China - Failed Debt Sales

The central bank is using bill sales to drain cash from the financial system and push up money-market rates, countering record growth in money supply that threatens to create bubbles in stocks and property.

The finance ministry didn't meet its target in a debt sale today, the third failure in two weeks. Demand for debt is cooling after new share sales resumed this month and as investors favor assets that benefit most from the recovery.

[briarberry] 18/7/2009 14:41

will interest rates rise in China ?

will that have an effect on UK & US rates ?

[briarberry] 10/7/2009 18:30

China's exports (less bad)

Exports fell 21.4% in June from a year earlier, a moderation from May's record 26.4% decline.

Imports were down 13.2%, much better than the 20% forecast and followed a 25.2% in May.

[briarberry] 10/7/2009 17:18

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- China failed to attract enough bidders in a government debt sale for a second time this week on speculation record bank lending will spark inflation in the world's third-largest economy.

The Ministry of Finance sold 25.1 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) in bills of the 35 billion yuan it had sought, according to traders at China Postal Savings Bank and Industrial Securities Co., who asked not to be identified. The government also failed to complete a bond sale on July 8 for the first time in almost six years.

The auction's failure reflects concern that Premier Wen Jiabao's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package will cause bubbles in stock and housing markets, forcing the central bank to tighten monetary policy. The People's Bank of China this week pushed up money-market rates and drained cash from banks, the biggest investors in the nation's $2.2 trillion debt market.

[briarberry] 09/7/2009 16:59

Encouraged by China's stimulus plan and speculation, a huge lending spike is threatening the long-term economy.

By Caijing economist Lu Lei

(Caijing.com.cn) Record bank lending in China is spawning systematic financial risks that may lead to a credit crisis.

New lending in the January-May period totaled 5.84 trillion yuan, 3.72 trillion yuan more than during the same period last year. That's an unprecedented pace for new loans, as lending levels never even reached 5 trillion yuan for an entire year between 2001 and '08.

This huge influx of borrowing, aimed at stimulating China's sluggish economy, is leading to overcapacity.

[briarberry] 09/7/2009 16:55

The stimulus plan is having a large effect at the moment...


July 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's passenger-vehicle sales rose 48 percent in June, the biggest jump since February 2006, as government stimulus spending spurred a revival in the world's third-largest economy.

Chinese motorists bought 872,900 cars, sport-utility vehicles and other passenger vehicles last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in a statement today. Overall auto sales, including buses and trucks, rose 36 percent to 1.14 million.

[briarberry] 09/7/2009 16:52

electricity, might have been this, although it's been posted all over the place...


17 Jun'09

China - I remember reading a couple of newsletters last year that said that official Chinese GDP data was always overstated, so yeah I think this might be true...


Zero Hedge

Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.

Many have highlighted that the GDP seems inconsistent with other data such as electricity output. This latter series remains weak. In May it declined 3.2% yoy and by 3% on the smoothed basis.

If China is doing so well how come Chinese company profits in the year to April are down some 30% yoy ? (see chart in pdf (2nd link below))



Expect new lows in equity markets in H2. Is China the hidden Achilles heel?


comments...

Gord 2 hours ago
Pettis is probably the best blogger out there on all things China -



excerpt from his latest:

"The bad news is that, according to a release today by the Ministry of Commerce, foreign direct investment in the mainland dropped 17.8% year-on-year in May for the eighth straight monthly fall. Honestly I don't think this is such a big deal except to the extent that it gives us a "businessman's" view of economic prospects in China that is very different from the economic-recovery view so popular in the Chinese (and foreign) press, although of course it may simply reflect the desire abroad for cutting exposure and cutting capacity.

Much more interesting to me is the trade data. According to an article in Thursday's People's Daily:

China's exports and imports shrank for the seventh month in row in May, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday. Exports fell 26.4 percent in May from the same period a year ago to 88.758 billion U.S. dollars. Imports were down 25.2 percent to 75.36 billion U.S. dollars. The trade surplus was 13.39 billion U.S. dollars."


China Small Caps Spark 'Bubble' Concerns on Valuation

[uncle john] 09/7/2009 15:52

Someone was telling me that whilst the Chinese Govt is claiming that production is increasing.
One analyst is saying that electricity consumption is falling.
These two statements are somewhat contradictory.

Does anyone know who the Analyst is who has done this research?

[briarberry] 29/6/2009 20:28

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".

Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.

Fitch traces the 2009 bubble to the central bank's decision to cut interest on reserves to 0.72pc. Bankers responded to this "margin squeeze" by ramping up the volume of lending instead. Over half the new debt is short-term. Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye.