Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 15/1/2009 22:24

is this true ?


Unemployment is now estimated to be at its highest levels since the Communist Party took over in 1949.

Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18 million, or 9 percent of the workforce ... This figure doesn't include the growing number of jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high as 20 percent.

[briarberry] 29/12/2008 16:51

fuel demand slows in China...

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- China's five biggest state power producers rejected a 10 percent price increase sought by the nation's suppliers of thermal coal for next year as slowing demand for energy undermines profitability.

The deadlock underscores collapsing demand for electricity that's driven power producers' coal stockpiles to a record. Generators may post 70 billion yuan ($10.2 billion) in combined losses this year as the world's fourth-largest economy heads for its steepest slowdown in almost two decades.

Prices of coal for immediate delivery almost halved to 610 yuan a metric ton as of Dec. 29 at Qinhuangdao port, a Chinese benchmark, from a July record of 1,080 yuan as fuel demand slows.

[briarberry] 10/12/2008 14:28

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Foreign direct investment in China fell 36.5 percent in November from a year earlier as gains by the yuan stalled and the world's fourth-biggest economy cooled.

Investment was $5.3 billion, the commerce ministry said on its Web site today, the least in 14 months.

The World Bank is forecasting China's weakest growth in almost two decades next year after export demand and construction slumped. The central bank has stalled gains by the yuan against the dollar since mid-July and last month slashed interest rates by the most in 11 years.

[briarberry] 25/11/2008 18:38

China Needs to 'Rebalance' Economy, World Bank Says...

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China should do more to rebalance its economy from investment, exports and industry to consumption and services as it rolls out a $586 billion stimulus package, the World Bank said.

The World Bank cut its forecast for China's economic growth next year to 7.5 percent from 9.2 percent in the previous quarterly report after the global financial crisis deepened. More than half of the expansion will come from "government-influenced spending," after the State Council this month announced measures including infrastructure projects, the report said.

China's economy, the world's fourth largest, expanded 9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2003. The World Bank's forecast is for the weakest growth in almost two decades next year.

China's foreign-exchange reserves, already the world's biggest, will likely swell to $2.045 trillion this year and $2.547 trillion by the end of 2009, the report said.

[energyi] 22/11/2008 06:53

Properties help mainland index regain early losses (from SCMP)

Shanghai Composite index -14.37 at 1,969.39, recovering most of early losses

Analysts said the market rebounded through a late rally by property firms on speculation that China might significantly ease monetary policy and take newc steps soon to support the economy and the market.

Beijing often announces major changes over the weekend to give markets time to digest the news.

"investors were showing interest in real estate firms in the afternoon, boosted by hopes that another interest rate cut may lift tghe sector's prospects," said Jacky Zhang, and amnalyst at Capital Securities.

China Vanke rose 4.37% to 6.92 yuan

[energyi] 11/11/2008 02:04

BUY STOCKS - Says policy think tank: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Suggested that Beijing buy shares to bail out the market when the the main gauge fell to the 1,500 level. The think-tank has also picked 50 state-owned companies for the stabilisation fund.

[energyi] 09/11/2008 03:49

(from today's SCMP):

TO BUY OR NOY? The Lure of Mainland Property stocks
======

Does the beasten down China real estate sector entice the experts?

After a 90-95% drop in the sector, Peggy Sito talks to a panel of experts

(1) Jing Ulrich, JP Morgan China equities
+ Little structural reason for an extended downturn
+ Mass market should recover when sentiment turns positive
+ Central govt. initiatives should support the market
+ "We favour large developers with strong CF & balance sheets

(2) Eric Wong Chun-yu, UBS: head of RE research
+ Time to consider buying, given central govt. moves
+ Wide swings likely, so buy a basket rather than one stock
+ Listed co's can dispose of assets more easily (than private) thru offshore
+ Entering now may get lowest prices, but later could be safer

(3) Kenny Tang Shing-hing, Tung Tai Securities
+ This is the right time to buy- stock market moves ahead of physical property
+ Improvement in physical market is likely, given govt. actions
+ Builders' stock prices already reflect a 2009 dive in earnings
+ Suggests: China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land

(4) Castor Pang, Sun Hung Kai Financial's strategist
+ Expects a rebound in the next 1-2 months, thnx, to easing pressure
+ Builders are very cheap at current levels, but be selective
+ Avoid Shanghai real estate mkt., which is glutted with supply
+ Guangdong and Beijing may be better; recommends same as above

(5) Eric Yuen Chi-fung, Dao Heng Securities
+ Govt. making efforts, but no sign of pick-up yet
+ Developers may see continuing CF problems
+ Further rate cuts may be required to get market moving again
+ Mainland developers may see a short term rally

(6) Alex Wong Kwok-ying, Ample Financial Group
+ It is not the right time to buy into mainland developers
+ Recent rally may be very short-lived
+ Mainland has lower quality co's than in HK (low leverage, strong CF)
+ Thousands of develops on mainland may be forced to sell
+ Smaller players need to be forced out before there is a low

(7) Li Kwok-suen, Philip Capital Mgmt
+ Not time to buy, but IS time to do some homework
+ Keep on eye on quality co's with low gearing and strong finances
+ Stock market could be instable: if 10,500 goes: next stop is 8,500
+ The Bottom in Heng Seng could be 6,400 :
: "It makes more sense to buy property stocks then"

[energyi] 27/10/2008 02:55

Big drop in China today
Value: 1,719.23
Change: -62.368 / % Change: -3.501

[URL=

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[energyi] 06/10/2008 16:46

Charts
SSE Composite Index / CSI-300 (^SSEC)


Industrials (399910.SZ)


Financials (399914.SZ)

[briarberry] 03/10/2008 17:55

(there's a chance that they're adding concentrated cow pooh to their milk supply)


Land of milk and money
Oct 3rd 2008
From Economist.com

China finds melamine and milk don't mix

[briarberry] 27/9/2008 21:52

Asia Needs Deal to Prevent Panic Selling of U.S. Debt, Yu Says

By Kevin Hamlin

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.

``We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. ``If there's no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.''

An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.

China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said.

.
.
The U.S. financial crisis had taught China a lesson and that was: ``Why are we piling up these IOUs if they may default?'' China's economic expansion strategy, which emphasizes export growth that has led to trade surpluses and the accumulation of $1.81 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, is the main problem, said Yu.

``Our export-growth strategy has run its natural course,'' he said. ``We should change course.''

China should stop intervening in the foreign currency markets and thus allow rapid appreciation of the yuan, he said. While this would cause pain for exporters, China could ease the transition by using its strong fiscal position to aid those who lose their jobs. It also should stimulate domestic demand to offset lower income from overseas sales.

Without yuan appreciation, China will continue to accumulate foreign reserves, which means further accumulating ``IOUs from the U.S.,'' said Yu. ``This is paper and it may default and it will not increase China's national welfare.''

[briarberry] 12/9/2008 15:33

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace in six years on weaker export demand, power shortages and factory shutdowns during the Olympic Games.

Production rose 12.8 percent in August from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 14.7 percent in July.

[briarberry] 12/9/2008 15:32

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales grew at close to the fastest pace in at least nine years as rising incomes encouraged consumer spending.

Retail sales rose 23.2 percent in August from a year earlier to 876.8 billion yuan ($128 billion), the National Bureau of Statistics said today, after gaining 23.3 percent in July.

Garment sales jumped 29.5 percent in August from a year earlier and spending on meat, poultry and eggs surged 26.7 percent, the statistics bureau said. Jewelry sales soared 44.3 percent.

Urban household disposable income climbed 14.4 percent to 8,065 yuan for the first six months of 2008 from a year earlier, while rural earnings gained 19.8 percent to 2,528 yuan. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 6.3 percent and 10.3 percent respectively.

[briarberry] 07/8/2008 15:09

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- China approved new rules to curb illegal inflows of capital, underscoring government concern that money from investors attracted by the yuan's gains and decade- high interest rates will stoke inflation.

The government wants to prevent the appreciating yuan and interest rates at their highest since 1998 from stoking investment flows and fueling inflation in the world's fourth- biggest economy. A record trade surplus and investors seeking to profit from the strength of the yuan have flooded China's economy with cash, swelling currency reserves to $1.8 trillion.

[briarberry] 06/8/2008 14:17

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's central bank has loosened controls on lending to small- and medium-size companies hit hardest by credit limits and slowing exports, state media reports said Wednesday, the latest evidence of growing concern over an economic slowdown.

The People's Bank of China advised local commercial banks that their annual quota for loans to smaller companies was raised by 10 percent, while the quotas for national commercial banks were increased by 5 percent, China Daily and other state-run newspapers reported.

[briarberry] 24/7/2008 21:13

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Coca-Cola Co., the world's biggest sodamaker, reduced the size of canned drinks by 7 percent in Hong Kong to rein in rising production costs driven by high raw material prices.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest aluminum producer, this week said it may add surcharges to some products to recoup soaring energy and transport costs.

[briarberry] 18/7/2008 14:56

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- China's stockpile of unsold new vehicles rose about 50 percent in the six months ended June, hitting a four-year high, as automakers expanded production and sales growth slowed.

The backlog reached 170,000 vehicles from about 110,000 at the end of last year, Cheng Xiaodong, head of vehicle-price monitoring at the National Development and Reform Commission, said by phone today. Sales prices also fell about 3 percent in the first half from a year earlier, he added.

[briarberry] 10/7/2008 17:40

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's vehicle sales rose 19 percent in the first half, slower than a year earlier, as inflation and natural disasters tempered demand in the world's fastest-growing major vehicle market.

...vehicles are becoming affordable to more people in China because of the country's 10 percent economic growth rate and price cuts triggered by rising competition. The proportion of people owning vehicles in China is also only equal to that seen in the U.S. in 1925 and in the U.K. in 1950.

[briarberry] 01/7/2008 16:54

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's manufacturing expanded in June at the slowest pace in almost three years as growth in export orders weakened for the third month, a survey of purchasing managers showed.

The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52 from 53.3 in May, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement. That's the lowest since August 2005.

A global economic slowdown triggered by the U.S. housing slump may be exacerbated by increased borrowing costs as central banks tackle rising inflation. China's growth will drop below 10 percent this year for the first time since 2002, the World Bank forecasts.

[briarberry] 16/6/2008 12:19

China, vendor financing, when will they actually stop rather than just talking about it...


"China `Not Smart' to Invest in U.S. Bonds, Cheng Says (Update2)
By Belinda Cao

June 13 (Bloomberg) - China's government, which invests up to a third of its $1.68 trillion in currency reserves in Treasuries, is "not smart'' to invest in U.S. debt and should seek higher returns, a former legislator said.

"I don't think it's a smart move to invest in U.S. bonds,'' said Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the National People's Congress, China's legislature, at a Beijing conference. "We need smart capitalists to invest ourselves,'' instead of lending money to American investors and earning interest, he said.

Cheng's remarks on Nov. 7 that China should improve the structure of its foreign reserves by favoring stronger currencies helped pushed the dollar to record lows against the euro. He said today his comments represented his "personal opinion, not the government's policy.''

[briarberry] 16/6/2008 09:32

China Industrial-Output Growth Accelerates on Exports

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- China's industrial-production growth accelerated on rising exports, signaling that the world's fourth-biggest economy is weathering a global slowdown.

Output rose 16 percent in May from a year earlier after gaining 15.7 percent in April, the statistics bureau said today. That matched the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Overseas shipments surged last month and retail-sales growth was close to the highest in nine years, keeping factories busy even as the deadliest earthquake in 32 years disrupted output in Sichuan province. The shortening of a weeklong May holiday to a three-day break boosted production.

------------

China's Factory Spending Climbs 25.6%, Survey Shows

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- China's spending on factories and real estate climbed 25.6 percent in the five months through May as the country rebuilt after natural disasters, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The increase in urban fixed-asset investment from a year earlier will be close to the 25.7 percent gain in the first four months, according to the median estimate of 20 economists. The statistics bureau will release the figure at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

China is rebuilding roads, power lines, factories and homes after January and February's blizzards, the worst in half a century, and the May 12 earthquake that killed more than 69,000 people. Rising demand for construction materials may push prices higher, making it harder for the central bank to tame inflation in the world's fastest-growing major economy.