Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[nabcom] 14/6/2009 13:54

From The Sunday Times
June 14, 2009

China will recover – by decree

The Communist party has ordered the rescue of the economy but the shares surge may be a false dawn


It was bracing to hear Andy Xie, an independent economist who once worked for Morgan Stanley, dissect the orthodox view over a £6.50 cup of coffee at the Four Seasons hotel, where recession is evidently not on the menu.

"The stimulus had a liquidity effect and a psychological effect on the stock market," he said, "but the market's view is wrong." Inventories had collapsed so far at the end of last year that buyers had to restock. Traders were mistaking this process for recovery.

Instead, he argued, there will be a "double dip" in the global recession and it will hit China hard next year. "You won't see the Kung Fu Panda effect. China is not going to lift the world – it accounts for only 8% of global GDP.

[briarberry] 24/5/2009 17:05

China's exports in April were down 22.6% from a year ago, the sixth successive month of decline. April's fall in exports was also bigger than the 17.1% annual decline recorded in March.

The Philippines said that its exports in March were down 30.9 percent from a year earlier.

Hong Kong's exports slumped by 22% during the quarter and economic recovery depends on how quickly the global economy picks up, analysts said.

Japan. Exports in March plunged by almost 46 percent from a year earlier, the finance ministry said Wednesday, but the decline wasn't as bad as February when exports slumped by about half. Moreover, month-on-month data show that exports managed a 2 percent rise -- the first uptick in nearly a year.

US imports improved to down 27.0 percent from down 28.7 percent the previous month

[briarberry] 24/5/2009 16:59

video - historical + current views

As American manufacturing went into decline, factories rose in China, and it quickly became the manufacturing center of the world. In some ways, China's workers were our employees, since they were making stuff for us. That is, until our economy collapsed. Adam Yamaguchi travels to China to look at how we've outsourced our unemployment.

[energyi] 12/5/2009 06:56

Moody's outlook for China property development sector negative

Hong Kong, April 16, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service has a negative outlook for China's property-development sector as tighter credit conditions are likely to prevail over the next 12-18 months and, at the same time, business prospects have become much more challenging.

"The overall sector has negative prospects in the near and medium term because developers face challenges in funding their capital expenditure with domestic and overseas funds, while also facing a more problematic sales environment," Moody's says in a new report.

The report -- entitled Chinese Property Developers: Greater Risk from Tighter Liquidity and a More Volatile Market -- is authored by Peter Choy, a VP/Senior Credit Officer, and Kaven Tsang, an Assistant Vice President/Analyst.

Moody's rates a total of 13 Chinese developers, of which 8 have stable outlooks, 2 negative and 3 are on review for possible downgrade.

"Despite the risks, Moody's maintains a stable rating outlook for many individual rated developers," says Choy, adding, "Some still have cash available from bond and equity issuances in 2007, and Moody's has positioned ratings to withstand some underperformance against expectations. "

"In addition, according to our scenario analysis, most rated developers can withstand tightened bank lending and a 25% fall in their projected sales for 2008," says Choy. "This situation, however, assumes they make no further acquisitions which eat into their existing balance-sheet liquidity."

The wide-ranging report looks in detail at the sector's key rating issues -- tighter funding, regulatory intervention, increased supply, and rising interest rates -- but says that liquidity is currently its main focus.

"In particular, our report has focused on issuers' liquidity and accordingly has implemented some stress tests on this issue," says Tsang, adding, "The results show, as indicated above, that many show some resilience to disappointing sales outcomes."

Another threat to credit profiles comes from the possibility that larger developers may take advantage of a softening market to acquire weaker smaller entities, the report says. Such deals or expansions of land banks could place the liquidity and financial or asset profiles of acquirers at risk.

At the same time, the report says prudent financial policies are necessary if ratings are to be maintained.

[briarberry] 06/5/2009 18:25

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore, said its major ports unloaded 24 percent more of the imported steelmaking ingredient in April from a year ago, a record for a second month.

Ships dropped 53.5 million metric tons of iron ore last month at major ports, the Ministry of Transport said on its Web site. That beats the March record of 51 million tons.

Stockpiles at the nation's major ports reached 62 million tons last month, the statement said.

[briarberry] 21/4/2009 15:31

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- China's plan to allow Hong Kong companies to issue yuan debt is part of its push to encourage its use as the reserve currency and reduce the role of the U.S. dollar, according to ING Groep NV.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said on April 18 that the Chinese government will permit the city's lenders to sell yuan-denominated bonds this year. Bank of East Asia Ltd. has applied to Chinese regulators for approval to sell such securities in Hong Kong, the South China Morning Post reported today, citing the bank's management.

"By preparing for their customers to subscribe, acquire and dispose of renminbi bonds, Hong Kong banks are at the forefront of internationalizing the renminbi," Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING in Singapore, wrote in a report today.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan last month called for the creation of a new international reserve currency amid concerns U.S. stimulus spending will weaken the dollar.

China has set up 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) of currency swaps with Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Belarus and Argentina in the past four months, broadening access to the yuan, which isn't fully convertible. It has also increased the use of yuan in cross-border trade by allowing Shanghai and four cities in the southern Guangdong province to start a pilot program in yuan settlement.

The yuan is a denomination of China's currency, the renminbi.

[briarberry] 29/3/2009 19:59

March 27 – Bloomberg (Li Yanping and Nipa Piboontanasawat): "Chinese industrial companies' profits dropped for the first time on record as the global recession cut demand for exports from the world's third-largest economy. Net income sank 37.3% in the first two months of 2009 from a year earlier to 219.1 billion yuan ($32 billion)..."

[briarberry] 11/3/2009 12:46

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models, helping the country extend its lead as the world's largest auto market this year.

[briarberry] 11/3/2009 12:45

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's urban fixed-asset investment surged 26.5 percent in the first two months of the year as the nation poured money into roads, railways and energy pipelines.

Spending rose to 1.03 trillion yuan ($150 billion) from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing, beating the 21.5 percent median estimate of 11 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Fixed-asset investment accounted for about 40 percent of the economy last year.




March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus plunged in February as exports fell by a record, adding pressure on the government to spur domestic consumption to prop up the world's third-biggest economy.

The trade gap narrowed to $4.8 billion, about an eighth of the amount in the previous month, the customs bureau said in a statement. Exports tumbled 25.7 percent from a year earlier. Imports fell 24.1 percent.

[briarberry] 11/3/2009 12:40

China is taking advantage of the world wide commodity price deflation to stockpile on natural resources.


"China's copper imports jumped to a record in February as buyers took advantage of low prices to replenish stockpiles needed for the country's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus program.

Inbound shipments advanced 42 percent from the previous month to 329,311 metric tons, the Beijing-based customs office said today. That's the highest level since at least 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shenzhen Rongtop Trading Co. analyst Pang Ying said purchases were a record. "

[briarberry] 24/2/2009 14:00

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's export orders dropped by a record in January, threatening to stoke unemployment and deepen the island's recession.

Orders fell 41.67 percent from a year earlier after December's 33 percent plunge, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a statement on its Web site today. That was a steeper decline than the 38 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of nine economists.

The global recession is pummeling exports across Asia, with South Korea's overseas shipments plunging by a record in January and Singapore's falling by the most in at least 22 years. Taiwan's central bank cut interest rates to a record low last week and may make further reductions after the economy shrank in the fourth quarter by the most since at least 1952.

[briarberry] 18/2/2009 15:04

China, Russia Strike $25 Billion Oil Pact

China reached a long-term deal to lend $25 billion to two Russian energy companies in exchange for an expanded supply of Russian oil, highlighting how the world's No. 3 economy is using its financial muscle to lock up access to natural resources.

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In Tuesday's deal, state-owned OAO Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, and OAO Transneft, its oil pipeline operator, will split the $25 billion in loans from China Development Bank, according to a Transneft spokesman. In exchange, Russia will provide China with an additional 15 million metric tons of crude oil a year, the spokesman and another person familiar with the deal said.

That supply deal -- which represents about 300,000 barrels a day, or nearly 10% of China's current volume of oil imports -- is to last 20 years

[briarberry] 18/2/2009 14:39

hello BritishBear :)


China Buys Australia On the Cheap

China Minmetals, said it would pay $1.7 billion in cash for Oz Minerals ltd., the world's second largest zinc miner.

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Clearly, for China - whose voracious appetite for metals and minerals drove commodity prices sky high until last year's bust - the timing is now right. "These [Chinese] companies know this slump, while deep, will not last forever," says Xu Minle, a Shanghai-based analyst at logistics company BOC International. "China is now making strategic investments overseas at a comparatively lower cost."

[britishbear] 15/2/2009 18:57

Good work Berry. Nice posting. Always reading.

[briarberry] 14/2/2009 14:45

Rio Tinto and Chinalco

Feb 12th 2009 | HONG KONG - From The Economist print edition

The crash in commodity prices lets China grab a prize

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On February 12th the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), a state-owned enterprise, announced that it would invest $19.5 billion in Rio, in two tranches. Chinalco will pay $12.3 billion for stakes of up to 50% in nine of Rio's mining assets, and will also buy $7.2 billion of bonds convertible into shares, in effect giving it the right to own just under 20% of Rio.

[briarberry] 11/2/2009 13:36

BEIJING (AP) -- China's exports plunged in January amid collapsing global demand, adding to the threat of job losses and possible unrest and intensifying pressure on Beijing to boost slumping economic growth.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008, the third monthly decline and a sharper drop than December's 2.8 percent, according to customs data released Tuesday. JP Morgan said it was the biggest monthly decline since October 1998.

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The collapse in global demand for Chinese goods has devastated export-dependent coastal areas. The government says at least 20 million migrant workers have lost their jobs. It is rolling out a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) package to stoke consumer spending and has taken steps to help struggling exporters of textiles and other goods.

Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent, reflecting a slump in demand for foreign components and raw materials used by Chinese export industries, as well as weaker domestic consumer demand. Up to half of China's $1 trillion in annual imports are materials used in goods that are re-exported.




Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's exports fell by the most in almost 13 years as demand dried up in the U.S. and Europe and imports plunged by a record, signaling a deepening slump in the world's third-biggest economy.

Outbound shipments declined 17.5 percent in January from a year earlier and imports fell 43.1 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. Both numbers were worse than economists' forecasts.

[briarberry] 10/2/2009 16:14

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China vehicle sales topped the U.S.'s for the first time last month, as economic growth, price cuts and government support tempered declines in demand caused by rising job loses.

January auto sales in China totaled 735,500, a 14 percent drop, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in an e-mailed statement today. That compares with a 37 percent plunge to 656,693 in the U.S., the world's largest auto market last year.

[briarberry] 03/2/2009 13:21

Thought this was interesting too... In Shift, Chinese Move More Money Overseas ???

...these trends represent a potentially tectonic shift. As Chinese citizens are starting to send more money out of the country, foreign investors are pulling money out too, and slowing the pace of new investment.

Total outflows in the fourth quarter were as much as $240 billion, but this is using the broadest possible definition and includes everything from capital flight to a slowdown in repatriation of overseas profits by Chinese companies. There is no good data assessing the motives of those moving money out of China.

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To prevent China's currency, the yuan, from rising, the government has been buying up the dollars pouring into the country from trade and foreign investment, accumulating more foreign exchange reserves than Japan, Saudi Arabia and Russia put together. It has paid for the dollars by printing more yuan, and has invested at least two-thirds of the dollars in American securities, particularly Treasury securities.

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Hong Kong residents have been snapping up gold bars at a brisk pace in another sign of anxiety.

[freddie ferret] 03/2/2009 13:11

briarberry.
The fact that unemployment in China maybe at an all time high could be good news in that it may signal that chinese productivity is improving, that they are moving from labour intensive to capital intensive. Rising unemployment will keep a lid on wages and allow space for none inflationary growth, for the rest of the world this means continueing cheap chinese imports, which will tend to continue to tend to cap inflation generally.

[briarberry] 03/2/2009 13:03

China Puts Joblessness for Migrants at 20 Million

BEIJING - The government offered a telling indicator Monday of the slowdown in China's once-galloping economy, announcing that more than one in seven rural migrant workers had been laid off or was unable to find work, twice as many as estimated just five weeks ago.

The new statistics followed a hint on Sunday by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao that the government might have to expand a recently announced $585 billion stimulus plan to deal "pre-emptively" with growing economic problems.

About 20 million of the total estimated 130 million migrant workers, whose cheap labor underpins China's manufacturing sector, have been forced to return to rural areas because of lack of work, according to a survey conducted by the Agriculture Ministry that was cited at a briefing.

In late December, employment officials estimated that at least 10 million migrant workers had lost their jobs in the third quarter of 2008 as waves of factories and businesses shut their doors