Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[knowing] 09/3/2006 10:55

SHANGHAI (AFX) - China's economy will slow this year, with GDP growth
forecast at about 8.6 pct compared with 9.9 pct last year, according to the
Economist Intelligence Unit.
"China's exports this year will not grow that much compared with last year,
and consumption will not expand in a short period," said Steven Sitao Xu,
director of the unit.
The government said earlier that it will focus on expanding domestic
consumption to make sustainable economic growth, and exports in 2005 were up
28.4 pct at 762 bln usd.
Fixed asset investment in some sectors with over-capacity will continue to
be controlled by the central government, he said.
"The exchange rate of the yuan will continue to appreciate, however, the
yuan is not going to appreciate below 7.8, which is the level expected by many
market investors," he said.
China's government is not willing to see a significant rise in yuan value,
as domestic farmers will suffer more due to increased competition from
agricultural imports, he said.
The yuan value of the government's foreign reserves, which are dominated by
US dollars, would also diminish as the usd depreciated against the yuan.

[energyi] 17/2/2006 09:09

Mausoleum of China's first emperor expected to remain unexcavated for long



With Jackie Chan describing the Qinshihuang Mausoleum as a zero-gravity world in his latest blockbuster "The Myth", the 2,000-year-old underground palace remains a mystery for the world.

Despite curiosity about it across the world, most experts say "no" when asked about whether an excavation is feasible in the near future. The core region of the mausoleum, about 2.13 sq km wide, is well protected from any excavation, according to Chinese experts and officials. NO EXCAVATION FORSEEABLE

"The current techniques mastered by the modern people cannot ensure the mausoleum can be protected well after excavation," said Duan Qingbo, head of the Qinshihuang Mausoleum Excavation Team under Shaanxi Provincial Institute of Cultural Heritage.

The State Administration of Cultural Heritage of China has consistently opposed any unnecessary excavation at the cultural heritage sites, especially at the large-scale emperor mausoleums like the Qinshihuang Mausoleum, unless some unexpected things occur like natural disasters, tomb robberies and vital infrastructure construction.

"All the objects in the tomb have been underground for thousands of years. They are used to the balance of the warmth and humidity underground and if we expose the relics to sunshine, oxygen or other gases, the balance will no longer exist and the relics will easily be ruined," said Zhang Bai, deputy-director of the State Administration of Cultural Heritage.

"These changes are totally out of control," said Zhang. "We once dug out some ivory relics from a watery pit and they looked so shiny and white, but turned into dark powder within two hours after excavation."

"Excavation sometimes means destruction," said Michael Petzet, President of the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS), "The underground Qinshihuang palace involves such a big region that we can not handle it after excavation."

Zhang and Michael Petzet, together with approximately 1,000 experts from about 85 countries, are attending the 15th ICOMOS General Assembly held at Xi'an, capital of northwest China's Shaanxi Province from Oct. 17 to 21. This is the second ICOMOS General Assembly on heritage protection ever held in Asia, after the one in Sri Lanka in 1993.

"Excavation should not be carried out for fun, unless we are compelled to do so in building either important highways or high-rise buildings," he said. "We have some bad examples of excavations in Russia that soon lead to treasure hunting and tomb robberies."

"Let them sleep underground. It's safer," he said. PART OF HISTORICAL RECORDS TRUE

The latest research carried out by German and Chinese experts found a remarkable amount of coins inside the mausoleum, what could be described as the "central bank" of the underground palace, Petzet said Wednesday at the Assembly.

Using magnetic prospection, the finding might prove that the historical record that the mausoleum was filled with treasures are true.

The historical record say the first emperor spent about 38 years building his afterlife palace and enslaved about 720,000 laborers. He filled his mausoleum with mercury in the form of a lake and river layout in his country, and decorated the inside top of the mausoleum with the layout of the sun, the moon and other stars.

The simulated rivers and lakes could flow the way they do in the real world, and the sun, the moon, and the other stars could also revolve the way in the real world, and the emperor also filled the underground palace with numerous complicated weapons to ward off tomb robbers, according to "Shi Ji", or historical records, compiled by famous Chinese historian Sima Qian, who lived in the dynasty after Qinshihuang's.

Experts have found the areas around the tomb contain a much higher density of mercury than other areas. The mausoleum also used a clever way to drain away groundwater from its center, a method still in use when building the foundation of modern constructions like the China Grand Theater, Duan acknowledged.

The latest prospection also found the round earthen man-made hill, about 50 m high and 350 m in diameter, contains symmetrical ladders and wooden construction. The coffin chamber is about 30 deep and tapers from 160 in length and 149 meters in width to 80 meters in length and 50 meters in width at the bottom. WHY SUCH A HUGE UNDERGROUND PALACE?

The ancient Chinese hoped to create an afterworld in which they could live with objects they used in the real world, so many funeral objects would be buried along with the dead. These objects became a major harvest of today's archaeologists. Even today the practice of funeral objects still prevails in China's vast rural areas where people set fire to paper or tinfoil objects including TV sets, cars, money or other things in hope they could be used by the dead.

That's the general explanation why Qinshihuang built such a huge mausoleum for himself, said Duan, but there's something special about the emperor since all the kings before him and the emperors after him always wanted to be buried with treasures in the mausoleums they built when they were alive.

Archaeologists found the key 181 accompanying tombs, including the famous Terra-cotta warriors and horses pits, in an area of about 60 sq km, and a few have been excavated, Duan said.

"These accompanying tombs represented the official departments of his empire. These findings proved the emperor wanted to bring not only the country's geological layout, but also governmental arrangement into his tomb," Duan said.

The emperor moved into his underground palace at age 49 after ruling for 15 years and building the underground palace for about 38 years.

"He was lonely. He had been ambitious enough to unite China for the first time and arrange the country with a political system managed by the selected talents instead of his imperial blood kin, " Duan said. "Though, it's well-known that he is described as ruthless and greedy."

Source: Xinhua

@:

[energyi] 17/2/2006 09:07

THE FIRST EMPEROR: THE MAN WHO MADE CHINA reveals that the warrior king was also a brutal tyrant who achieved his overwhelming power by destroying all opposition, both on the battlefield and in his own palace, where he survived repeated assassination attempts. As he became more and more powerful, Chin was said to have consumed mercury in increasingly-large doses, hoping to extend his life.



But could the substance have had the opposite effect and driven him mad, or worse, killed him? While Emperor Chin¡¦s powerful empire outlasted Rome by a thousand years, could his obsession with immortality have ultimately proven his downfall? The production team along with Dr. Jeffrey Riegel, Professor of Chinese at the University of California, Berkeley, investigates how the tomb itself can reveal the facts behind the legend.

...MORE:

[va va voom] 31/1/2006 16:56

I always wondered why solar panels had not taken off in China ;)

[energyi] 31/1/2006 12:37

China's skies have darkened

over the past 50 years, possibly due to haze resulting from a nine-fold increase in fossil fuel emissions, according to researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy. Using data from more than 500 weather stations in China, researchers found the amount of sunlight hitting the ground has fallen by 3.7 watts per square yard in each of the last five decades, the study said.

[hectorp] 29/1/2006 17:19

Kung Hei fat choi to our Chinese readers! Happy New Year!

[knowing] 26/1/2006 08:56

HONG KONG (AFX) - Hong Kong's exports in December rose 6.7 pct to 188.8 bln
hkd from a year earlier, after rising 11.5 pct year-on-year in November, the
government said.
Re-exports in December increased 5.6 pct to 174.8 bln hkd, while domestic
exports rose 22.2 pct to 14.0 bln hkd.
Imports in the month rose 10.6 pct year-on-year to 205.6 bln hkd, it said.
The visible trade deficit in the month was 16.9 bln hkd, or 8.2 pct of the
value of imports in the period.
A government spokesman said merchandise exports continued to grow solidly in
December 2005 over a year earlier, although at a less rapid pace than in the
preceding months.
"There was a slowdown in the growth of re-export trade, partly reflecting
the decrease in the re-exports of textile and clothing products towards the end
of the year," he said in a statement posted on a government website.

[energyi] 11/1/2006 23:10

New:

CHN, the China's ETF thread:

[wen tao] 21/12/2005 02:52

为什040;你不会明333;我？你是 874;明吗？你435;不去中国A311;我觉得你981;去过中国294;是你懂得013;国？

[wen tao] 21/12/2005 02:26

This is real China, my old neighbour:

这是495;正的中国, 我的 769;邻居:



我不916;欢你们大478;!!!

If you can't read this it is because you don't have Chinese characters enabled.

[knowing] 20/12/2005 23:01

LONDON, December 20 (newratings.com) – China's economy grew last year by nearly twice the figure published earlier, according to a government report released in Beijing on Tuesday.

The government revised its figure of the country's gross domestic product for 2004 upward to $2 trillion, taking the output growth figure to 16.8%. This represents an increase of $285 billion over the figure previously reported. A year-long census showed that millions of companies were unaccounted for last year, most of which were in the service sector, which is growing faster than the manufacturing sector, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The new data helped China replace Italy as the world's sixth largest economy in 2004, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. If Hong Kong were to be included in the figure, China would replace UK as the fourth largest economy in the world, behind only the US, Japan and Germany

[knowing] 12/12/2005 12:41

Talking growth of just under 9% for next year.

[knowing] 06/12/2005 11:38

BEIJING (AFX) - China's IT and electronic product exports are expected to
hit 250 bln yuan this year, accounting for one-third of China's total exports,
the Xinhua New agency reported.
The report quoted the latest figures from the Ministry of Information
Industry (MII) that, from January to October, China exported 21.04 bln yuan IT
and electronic products, up about 30 pct year-on-year.
Lou Qinjian, vice minister of the MII, was cited as saying that China will
encourage domestic IT and electronic companies to change their manufacture
models from processing products for foreign companies, to building up their own
brands.
(1 usd = 8.1 yuan)
[e-mail]

[ian56] 20/11/2005 23:45

Has the SSEC (Chinese stock index) started wave 3 up from the July bottom?
The current EW count is ambiguous but I am inclined to say that it has.

Regards,
Ian

[dysonhooverman] 22/10/2005 05:54

Just what kind of migrating birds are they trying to stop?

[hectorp] 06/8/2005 11:06

clearly the significants is the flexibility now provided by the floating yuan.

[hectorp] 06/8/2005 11:06

from the FT:

...Since China engineered a stunning change in the way it manages its currency, many people have expressed disappointment with the modest size of the renminbi's appreciation. But these critics have missed the crucial point: the renminbi is no longer a currency rigidly pegged against the dollar, but one whose value will move up and down in response to changing economic and market ­fundamentals.

Exchange rate flexibility, not a one-off revaluation, is what really matters. A more flexible renminbi enables China to regain monetary control and maintain macroeconomic stability. A steadily strengthening renminbi dulls China's pain from ever rising oil and raw materials prices and improves the country's terms of trade. China may also have helped rein in the rising protectionism of the US Congress.

[hectorp] 01/8/2005 11:15

I suspect we'll have a new 'Pearl Harbour' incident in around 10 years .
sadly I cant see a declining US accepting the constant rise of China as its replacement. Perhaps the US will strongly groom India as their far eastern allies to balance the increasing authority of China.
but over the next few years, let's enjoy the times we have now, they could, be worse!
PS that is a most worthwile article above , one to remember clearly.

[mcbeanburger] 21/7/2005 20:02

interesting read

[mcbeanburger] 21/7/2005 15:43

Stetser on China's reserves, which total US $711 billion:



Created: Jul 18 2005
China indicated its reserves have increased to $711 billion at the end of June -- up $101 billion from the end of December 2004. Actually, they are up more than that. China transferred $15 billion to a state bank, and valuation losses from the falling euro and yen probably subtracted another $15 billion to its reserves (that would be roughly consistent with a 75/25% dollar/ non-dollar spit in China's reserves). That implies an underlying increase of $130 billion, give or take a few billion, in the first half of the year -- a bit over $20 billion a month.

That pace could increase in the second half of the year. China's trade surplus is almost always bigger in the second half of the year than the first half of the year, so the same pace of capital inflows -- both FDI inflows and more speculative flows -- would push the pace of reserve accumulation up a bit.

Taking into account valuation losses, an increase of $240 billion or so is almost guaranteed, and a $300 billion increase is not out of the question. That is not just my opinion -- Jonathan Anderson of UBS has long forecast that China's 2005 reserve accumulation would top its 2004 reserve accumulation by a signficant margin, and Stephen Green of Standard Chartered recently made a similar call.

So I have to take issue Brad DeLong's back of the envelope estimate that China will spend around 10% of its GDP intervening in the FX market this year. I think that is too low!

China's official GDP will be a bit under $2 trillion, say $1850 billion, at the end of 2005. I think there is a reasonable chance China will add $280 billion or more to its reserves this year -- or 15% of its GDP.

That is why I am a bit flummoxed by the argument that US manufacturing industries that are complaining about China just don't like fair competition. Some industries and some sectors and some firms may not be able to compete with Chinese production even if China stopped all intervention. But right now, in some sense, US labor in US manufacturing industries is competing both against Chinese labor and the government of China.

I cannot think of another major manufacturing power – China's goods exports are now comparable to US goods exports -- that has run a current account surplus of more than 5% of its GDP while spending close to 15% of its GDP to add to its already substantial reserves. Some oil exporters may have responded to a surge in oil export revenues with similar reserve accumulation, but oil is a bit different. Malaysia may have done something comparable, but that only reinforces my argument, since it too has stubbornly retained its dollar peg. And Malaysia has a bit of oil too.

China's reserve accumulation seems every bit as unprecedented at current account deficits of close to 7% of GDP in the world's largest economy, and the issuer of the world's reserve currency.

Let's look forward a couple of years. Suppose China's reserves continue to increase by $300 billion a year, China's exports continue to grow by 30% y//y, and China's GDP continues to expand by more than 10% a year in dollar terms. By the end of 2006, China's reserves would reach $1210 billion -- more than twice their level at the end of 2004. And by the end of 2007, they would top $1500 billion, more than twice their current (mid 2005) level. That assumes that the pace of reserve increase does not continue to accelerate, and hence something of a break from recent trends. China's 2005 reserve accumulation will top its 2004 accumulation, and its 2004 reserve accumulation topped its 2003 reserve accumulation.

China's (goods) exports would rise from $590 billion or so at the end of 2004 to $1300 billion at the end of 2007, 55% of its GDP. Its exports to the US would rise from $190b to $420b, or about 18% of China's estimated 2007 GDP (assuming 2007 GDP is around $2.3 trillion).

China's reserves would reach about 65% of its end 2007 GDP. Or at least they would if China's is not able to spend some of its cash hoard on US companies. China's end 2007 reserves might only be $1300 billion if it could spend $200 billion on US companies -- US companies bought by Chinese state firms in a sense substitute for US bonds bought by the Chinese central bank.

Just to be clear, I don't think all this will happen. That is the core insight behind the piece Nouriel and I wrote arguing that the Bretton Woods 2 system is unstable. This may be an equilibrium, but it is an unstable one -- both politically and economically.

Which brings me to last Friday's FT story, the one saying the US thinks China will revalue in August.

Nouriel has already laid out his take on the FT story

I have long thought that there was a reasonable chance Chine would make at least a small move in August (ask Menzie Chinn!), and not just because one other formerly communist country let its exchange rate move in August (Russia, in 98). Rather, i thought an August move made sense for a range of largely tactical reasons.

1) President Hu is visiting the US this fall. If China does not move before his visit, President Bush would almost certainly have to repeat the US line -- the time to move is now -- with President Hu at his side. That imagery might not play so well in China ...

2) If China doesn't move, the fall G-7 and the IMF annual meetings will be about nothing else ... Ok, maybe oil too. The deal on debt relief, aid flows and similar issues was done in the summer.

3) In mid-October, the US will declare China a currency manipulator if it does not move.

4) There will be a vote in the US congress on Schumer-Graham at some point this fall.

"Once the U.S. Congress recess ends, you're bound to get more and more political noise about China's lack of moving," said Simon Flint, a currency strategist at Merrill Lynch in Singapore. "

5) China's global trade surplus -- and its bilateral trade surplus with the US -- will be very, very large this fall.

6) And even though China currently earns more on US treasuries than its pays out on the sterilization bills that the People's Bank of China issues, the stock of sterilization bills is still growing rapidly -- and China will have to issue a ton more if its reserves are on track to rise from $711 billion now to $1500 billion in two and half years. Stephen Green estimates that China's existing stock of sterilization bills totals $215 billion -- and China will have to issue $60 b of new bills in the second half of the year just to refinance existing bills at they mature. As the stock of bills outstanding keeps growing, the PBOC's exposure to domestic interest rate risk only will expand.

Of course, that has to be weighed against the possibility that China's economy is slowing a bit more than desired, current low inflation in China, and the fact that the RMB has already appreciated substantially against the Euro. Though -- as recent data suggests -- all China has to do to spur a bit more growth is to relaz restraints on bank lending (and reduce the pace of sterilization, letting the money supply grow a bit more).

``The authorities clearly targeted a slowdown in money and credit growth during the boom and they have achieved that,'' said Tim Condon, chief Asia economist at ING Bank in Singapore. ``They may now be thinking that things have slowed down too much and they are sending a signal that lending more is okay.''

There are always reasons not to move in the short-run. That is why emerging economies consistently cling to outdated exchange rate pegs for too long. However, in the long-run -- or for that matter the medium run -- it doesn't really make sense for China, a major creditor country with a large and growing current account surplus, to tie its currency to that of the US, a major debtor country, with a large and growing current account deficit.

The US government no doubt agrees with that assessment.

However, I am also not sure it makes sense for a creditor country like China to have so much of its external wealth denominated in the currency of a major debtor country. China would be far better off if more of its external assets were denominated in RMB and fewer in dollars or, for that matter, if more were denominated in "oil" and fewer in dollars. I doubt the US government would like all the implications of that judgment ... The US still seems to me to be banking on the continuation of a lot privileges that normally accrue to creditor – not debtor – countries.

There are many ways the system could break down. Protectionism in the US, whether from workers in US manufacturing industries that don't like competing with Chinese labor subsidized by vendor financing from the PBOC or from US firms who don't like competing with Chinese firms also subsidized by the PBOC in the "M&A" market. Chinese protectionism. A US consumer that finally gives in, particularly in the face of the deflationary impact China currently exerts on US wages, at least in some sectors (the size of the impact can be debated, the direction of the impact is pretty clear). The domestic consequences of China's ballooning reserves. The growing US current account deficit.

No surprise: I think DeLong somewhat overestimates the chances (four in five?) of avoiding a crisis of some sort, though I agree with his assessment that the odds of a crisis are rising.

[mangal] 21/7/2005 15:33

It's happened at last - China Ends Yuan Dollar Peg