Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[bbmuppet] 23/1/2004 08:38

3:12 China vehicle demand to hit 20 million by 2020--Xinhua

[hectorp] 23/1/2004 08:17

Watch STAN Bank.... dropping while HK is closed. Could be due a strong bounce next week.

MaxK - dont understand your post. elucidate ? Assume you are a China bear... very unwise if you are.

[maxk] 22/1/2004 23:46

As you sign your own death warrants........what a wonderfull world.

[the knowing] 22/1/2004 23:09

Happy and Prosperous New Year !

It is so far

[hectorp] 22/1/2004 09:39

Happy new Year all China enthusiasts!

+We should come out of the blocks running on re-open.

[rambutan2] 21/1/2004 15:48

Guess who 2nd largest consumer of crude oil is? It will come to no
surprise to you that the largest consumer of crude oil is the South to our
North. But Japan has slipped to third position – supplanted by...yes, you
guessed it...China! It is the world's fastest growing economy and scooter
and automobile sales have been skyrocketing. In fact, one estimate was for
12,000,000 cars to in China by 2010. While most of the Street is calling
for a correction in world crude prices, contrarians like Harris Bank
strategist Donald Coxe have consistently pounded the table on oil. His
biggest bullish argument is that the second and third world want to be
just like us. As their prosperity grows, so does their appetite. We have
merely seen the tip of the iceberg.

[mcbeanburger] 21/1/2004 05:48

I though China was a net exporter of coal, to the tune of 50 mil tons. You sure of the figure MT?

[m.t.glass] 21/1/2004 00:21

"..Li calculated that China consumed 30 percent of the world's coal production last year, 36 percent of the world's steel and 55 percent of the world's cement and acknowledged that prices for steel and cement were rising..." (NYT et al today)

Anyone know of any stats relating to the shipping/haulage of goods pouring into China, and the extent to which China is (or isn't) taking control of freight?

[snowflake34] 20/1/2004 11:09

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year ago as companies such as Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Motorola Inc. expanded to meet surging consumer demand and export orders.

The world's sixth-largest economy accelerated from a revised 9.6 percent rate in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing. Gross domestic product for 2003 rose 9.1 percent, the fastest in six years, to 11.7 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion).

China helped drive a global recovery last year, consuming 55 percent of the world's cement production and 36 percent of its steel, the bureau said. The government forecast slower growth this year and said it has no plans to rein in money supply or allow its currency to strengthen, spurning calls to end a link to the dollar the U.S. says unfairly boosts China's exports.

``China's economy is still in the early stage of an expansionary cycle,'' said Goldman Sachs Inc. economist Hong Liang, who predicts 9.5 percent growth this year. ``We don't see overheating. The underlying growth momentum is strong and government policy isn't going to kill it.''

Li Deshui, a director of the statistics bureau, told reporters in Beijing, the economy will probably slow to growth of more than 7 percent this year. Chinese exports, which grew 51 percent in December, will slow this quarter after the government cut export-related tax rebates at the start of this year, he said.

Monetary Policy, Yuan

Consumer spending will probably pick up this quarter, helping prevent gluts of cars, fridges and mobile phones as new factories open, he said. The government won't tighten monetary policy or relax the yuan's peg to curb money-supply growth and investment, he said.

``There is no need yet to slam on the brakes,'' Li told reporters at a briefing in Beijing. ``Anyone who tries to speculate on yuan appreciation will be burnt.''

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rose after today's figures were released, led by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest oil refiner. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which measures shares of 32 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, climbed 3.6 percent to 4905.81.

``We'll keep on investing in China to benefit from the strong growth,'' said Gene Quon, a director at Motorola's telecom unit in Beijing. ``China's telecom sector grew three times as fast as GDP last year, and we expect the same growth this year.''

Investment

For these latest economic growth figures, China used a new system of measuring economic activity that takes greater account of the construction industry, black market and other areas after economists cast doubt on the accuracy of the previous method. The economy was previously reported to have expanded 9.1 percent in the third quarter and 8 percent in 2002.

China's M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew faster than the central bank's targeted 18 percent growth rate every month last year. Fixed-asset investment, which accounts for almost half of the economy, rose 27 percent last year and will grow at a similar pace in 2004, Li said.

China's industrial production rose a record 18 percent in December, which, adjusting for new year holidays in January and February, was the fastest since records began in 1995. Retail sales grew 11 percent, their biggest gain in 2 1/2 years.

China Petroleum gained 20 cents, or 6.2 percent, to HK$3.45. PetroChina, the country's largest oil producer, advanced 1.9 percent to HK$3.975.

Stocks Rise

China Mobile, the world's biggest mobile-phone company by users, gained HK$1.25, or 4.8 percent, to HK$27.40. The company said today it added subscribers last month at its fastest pace in 2003, opening 2.3 million new accounts.

China's economic growth gathered pace last year even as the region's severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak cooled consumer spending, tourism and trade in the second and third quarters. Electricity blackouts also failed to curb expansion.

``We had a successful 2003 and sold a record 597,000 cars after overcoming SARS, heat and capacity and power shortages,'' said Xiao Guopu, vice president at Shanghai Automotive, China's No. 2 vehicle maker. The company, which makes cars in partnership with General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG., predicts sales will rise about a quarter this year.

Motorola said it would boost cell-phone production in China by a third to 40 million units last year, of which as much as half were destined for export. Motorola posted sales of $5.7 billion in China in 2002 and had invested $3.4 billion in the country by the start of last year.

Jobs, Incomes

Surging investment and production helped create 8.5 million new jobs in China last year, Li said. That's helping boost incomes in the world's most-populous nation.

The average disposable income last year rose 9.3 percent to 8,500 yuan in cities and 4.3 percent to 2,622 yuan in agricultural areas. That appears to continue the growing disparity between farm and city incomes in China, a concern expressed by Chinese leaders in the past.

The nation's official urban jobless rate rose to 4.3 percent at the end of the year from 4.2 percent at end-September. That's the highest it's been since 1980.

To address power blackouts that crippled some industries last summer, China will add 30 million kilowatts of generating capacity this year, the government said. That's the same amount as it added in 2003.

[hectorp] 20/1/2004 09:47

HSI closed up 2.4 percent ! this morning, its best day in a while.

[bbmuppet] 20/1/2004 00:01

Energyi,

"- China accounts for (only) 4% of the global economy, but was
respnsible for a fifth of the World's growth last year

Where does it fit in Size (of Economy)
1. United States
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. Britain
5. France
6. China
7.?Italy?"

This is clearly utterly wrong China has a GDP of US$6,500,000,000,000 and was single handedly reponsible for 77% of Global GDP Growth, her economy is in fact probably second to USA right now growing around 11.67% pa (8% plus real to 12.60% GDP).



Please if you are going to set up a thread get your facts right.
These are Yankee stats and bound to be low balling China as well.

Thanks BB Muppet

[bbmuppet] 17/1/2004 22:26

Hector,

Could you email me [e-mail] thanks BB Muppet

[hectorp] 17/1/2004 19:46

Snowflake thanks for that.. Money supply cooling in CHINa best news in some weeks.

[hectorp] 17/1/2004 19:45

That's a good thread for reading cross-America viewpoint on China..
I've cut back a little recently on last year's China investments, about 30%, but in spite of SAARS or chance of overheating which is real, there is a greater risk in not having some exposure to China and Far East at all times from now till the long term.. its easy to get scared out, BUT its harder still to try to second guess medium term China/HK.
Still have 40% of my overseas investment in Japan... 10% is in Aussie.
H.

[energyi] 14/1/2004 13:52

U.S. November Trade Gap Narrows to $38 Bln as Exports Surge
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $38 billion in November, the narrowest in 13 months, after exports climbed to a three-year high. Shipments to China were a record.

The excess of imports over exports of goods and services compared with a trade deficit of $41.6 billion a month earlier, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. The trade gap in November was the narrowest since $35.2 billion in October 2002.

The surge in U.S. exports was helped by a dollar that declined 15 percent against a basket of six major currencies last year, and by stronger economic growth in the rest of the world.

...
Greenspan and Dollar
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that the record current account deficit, a broader measure of trade that includes investments, has posed no threat to the global economy so far and hasn't resulted in higher inflation in the U.S. The central banker told participants at a Bundesbank conference in Berlin that he was ``quite optimistic'' there would be no dollar crisis.

Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $42 billion in November, based on the median of 64 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, from $41.8 billion previously reported for October.

The trade deficit had averaged in excess of $41 billion a month since December 2002, a year after the last recession ended. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, accelerated in the first nine months of 2003. For the first 11 months of last year, the deficit was $446.8 billion, compared with $418 billion for all of 2002.

The U.S. economy will probably expand 4.4 percent this year, the most since 1999, after growing 3.1 percent in 2003, according to the latest Bloomberg News media forecast. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 54 economists predicts growth of 4.6 percent, the most in 20 years.

The deficit with China narrowed to $10.8 billion from $13.6 billion.
Imports from China fell. Exports were a record $3.3 billion.
...
Chinese companies are increasing purchases in the U.S. as well. Motorola Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc., Cisco Systems Inc. and other suppliers won a total of $2.3 billion in contracts to provide equipment for Chinese telephone companies, the U.S. Commerce Department said.

Chinese companies bought $8.5 billion of airplanes, cars, machinery and agricultural products in the U.S. in November and December.

[the knowing] 12/1/2004 20:25

"China to revalue yuan in first quarter of 2004: Goldman Sachs"

[the knowing] 12/1/2004 18:04

Strong 2004 performance expected for emerging-market equities

Monday, January 12, 2004 8:48:29 AM ET
Merrill Lynch

LONDON, January 12 (New Ratings) – Analysts at Merrill Lynch believe that 2004 is expected to be a positive year for risk-taking in the global equity markets.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that 2004 is likely to be a positive year for highly leveraged stocks, as compared to the defensive ones, globally. Equities in the emerging markets, such as Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, India, China and Thailand, are likely to benefit from the weak US dollar during 2004, the analysts say. Merrill Lynch maintains an "overweight" stance on the Japanese equities and those in the emerging markets, while preferring an "underweight" stance on the US and UK equities.

© 2004 New Ratings

[energyi] 12/1/2004 16:47

CHINA KILLS LEVI's MANUFACTURING

Levi Strauss, the privately held 150-year-old maker of jeans and more, is closing down its last two sewing plants in America. (We pause now for a 21-button salute.)

Call it an inevitable result of free markets or call it a crying shame. Either way, due to difficulties competing with clothing stitched overseas at a fraction of the cost, the denim icon has struggled in recent years. A recent article by Dave Marino-Nachison pointed out some other problems, including sub-optimal distribution methods that ignored discount chains such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) for too long.

Levi's has also been criticized for neglecting its brand, allowing it to fall from that top shelf of American icon brands that boasts the likes of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Ford (NYSE: F), and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD).

Levi Strauss's revenues peaked in 1996, at $7.1 billion, but that plunged to $4.1 billion by 2002 and is projected to come in even lower in 2003. Twenty years ago, Levi's 63 plants across the U.S. cranked out millions of pairs of jeans annually. Soon, the company will abandon the continent altogether, once three remaining Canadian plants are closed. Who's getting the business? China, and other nations with less expensive labor.

Levi's struggles are far from over. But if the company is to survive, the shift to overseas production is probably sensible. American shoppers might like to see a "Made in America" label on their jeans, but they're probably not eager to spend twice as much for that label. Levi's also needs to work on boosting the image of its Levi's and Docker's brands, while paying down debt and getting costs under control.

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