Icbccss&p500usd Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 11/1/2004 18:20

McBean - am I wrong, as I reckon the Government using surplus USD cash to reduce indebtedness to these 2 banks to below 15% is an excellent and timely move!
Wont help my call on STAN however.

[hectorp] 11/1/2004 18:17

Check out Petrochina covered Warrants ( Dec 04) could we worth a trade? Have fallen well off recent highs.
H.

[mcbeanburger] 11/1/2004 10:36

Cautionary post for China followers





edit: more

[energyi] 09/1/2004 22:21

``Demand is booming, especially in the U.S. and China,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst with Refco Group Ltd. in New York. ``The outlook is for continued demand growth, regardless of one jobless report.''

China's economy, the world's sixth largest, grew 9.1 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter and the U.S. economy, the world's biggest, expanded 3.6 percent. China is set to surpass Japan this year as the world's second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S. last year.

From Bloomberg

[energyi] 09/1/2004 18:53

PREMIUMS TOO HIGH... imo...

From SI
From: Larry S. Sunday, Jan 4, 2004 10:22 PM

CHN =65% premium
JFC = 33% premium
GCH = 17% premium
chart for one year:
would it make sense to switch out of chn into gch based on premium. how do the holdings differ? i want to maintain a percentage of my portfolio in china, and prefer to do it thru etf and cefs, but did buy LFC last week.
i got these premiums from this excellent site:
larry

[glenwood] 09/1/2004 18:51

A few more stocks to keep a eye on.....

UK: FTO Oil

Oil/Chem, website, Life Ins., ++++
US: CHINA,CLST,ATS,BYH,CBA,CHA,JCC,LFC,PTR,SNP & ZNH

Good luck to all.

[energyi] 09/1/2004 18:49

thnx, McB.

The Link is in the Header now.

The stocks list on the SHIP thread

[mcbeanburger] 09/1/2004 18:13

Thinking of a punt on China? Read on:


3 Major indices:
DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq

20 Closed End Funds:
BZF, BZL, CHN, GCH, IF,
IFN, IIF, JEQ, JFC, JOF,
KEF, KF, MF, ROC, SGF,
TDF, TF, TRF, TTF, TWN

64 Mining/Metals stocks:
AA, ABER, ACI, AKS, AL,
ATI, AZK, BBL, BHP, BTU,
BW, CCJ, CENX, CGA, CLF,
CMIN, CNX, CRS, EC, FCX,
FDG, GGB, HDWR, HSVLY, HUGO,
IMR, IMY, INMT, IPS, IST,
MEE, MFN, N, NANX, NRD,
NRP, NUE, NX, OS, PAL,
PCP, PCU, PD, PKX, PVR,
RESC, RIO, ROCK, RTI, RTP,
SCHN, SID, SIM, STLD, STTX,
SWC, TIE, TS, TXI, USU,
WLB, WMC, WOR, WPSC

5 Agri/Food stocks:
ADM, BG, IGL, NHY, POT

16 Shipping stocks:
ALEX, FRO, GLNG, GMR, NAT,
OMM, OSG, SBLK, SCR.A, SJH,
SNSA, TEU, TK, TNP, TRMD,
VLCCF

Where did I get this?

[mcbeanburger] 09/1/2004 17:57

Interesting piece from Morgan Stanley on China Grow Bottle Necks:



Energyi - check your hotmail account I have emailed the html to you so you can put in the header if you wish.

[energyi] 09/1/2004 17:45

COMMENTS from the Den...

17:36:38 {AlanGaynor} this past week china took 1/4 of its US$ holdings (total of 100B) and injected it into their 2 biggest banks with 25+% non operforming loans. they will reform their crony banking system

17:36:59 {energyi-London} Marc Faber lives in Hongkong, and thinks China is getting overdone, and will slow down. After todays meagre job number, expect more presurre from washington on the Reminibi peg to the dolar

17:38:08 {AlanGaynor} I think their pledginf the 100B to fund their banks will take pressure off of them to move renminbi. this 100B is still being left in the US to avoid rapid hit on US bond markets

17:38:16 {Mary Frances} nice in very few areas and so lacking in most all other places; meaning the water, sewage etc.

17:38:26 {Lute82} energyl....yes....and that would really hit the dollar...let the remninbi float....that would be very dynamic to world currency markets.

- -
17:39:08 {AlanGaynor} it is likely overdone in the short term bec they are really intent on cooling off their economy, but to what, from 10-12% growth to perhaps 8-10% they are one of the only countries around that lies about thier gdp growth, by under reporting it

17:39:15 {barryk} last nite also on K&K,,china expert said the commodities , copper, nickle , etc. were in an oversupply..plenty in the pipeline. inferred that we could have a pull-back in these items

[hectorp] 09/1/2004 17:37

Straddle: First State Asia Pacific, a fund is the kind of investment vehicle you want to look at. I also hold some GAM ( Globa Asset Management - Dublin) Star Orient Fund.
stock. Need to apply to GAM Dublin. ( Tax haven status can apply in some instances). The Fund can be subscribed to as 'pound class' 'Euro class' yen class or 'US dollar class' and its possible to switch between classes of funds if currency movement starts to alter much.
H.

[energyi] 08/1/2004 20:26

McB,
Can you add those charts to the SHIP thread?
(copy & paste?)

[the knowing] 06/1/2004 10:03

SHANGHAI (AFX-ASIA) - China's gross domestic product is likely to cool to
9.5 pct in 2004, from an estimated 11.5 pct last year, as the effects of credit
tightening filter through the system leading to domestic demand tapering off,
UBS economist Jonathan Anderson said.
Anderson told clients in a report that Chinese economic growth, based on UBS
readings rather than official statistics, will further decelerate to 7.4 pct in
2005 as the government takes action against parts of an economy which it
believes are running too fast.
"Contrary to popular opinion, we believe the authorities have both the tools
and the willingness to dampen the current boom," he said. "The double-digit
growth pace and the overdependence on investment and credit
growth are clear signs that China is overheating."
That said, Anderson noted that the broader economy is growing soundly and
that the signs of overheating are limited to selected industries, ruling out the
likelihood of a hard landing.
He also noted that November's surge in the consumer price index did not
indicate that the country is heading for an "inflationary blowout". He said that
November's 3 pct CPI level could jump to 6-8 pct in the first half of this year,
but that it would return to 1-2 pct annual growth by 2005 as food and raw
materials prices cool off.
This cooling will come in part from a slowdown in import growth. With the
one-off shocks caused by China's WTO accession likely to fade, and a tightening
up of credit conditions likely to dampen domestic demand, Anderson also said
that import growth will have trouble sustaining at high levels in the new year.
He warned that "mid-stream processing industries" such as steel and
petrochemicals are the most exposed to any cooling, and that he expects import
growth to fall from as high as 50 pct in the first quarter of last year, to as
low as 10 pct in the second half of this year.
Despite an expected increase in tensions between the US and China as the
November presidential elections approach, Anderson said that "wrenching
adjustments" such as the floatation of the yuan is unlikely this year.
He also said that there was little in the current trade dispute between
China and its developed trading partners to suggest a full-blown trade war as
was seen between Japan and the US in the 1980s.
Nonetheless, he said that China could move to a trade-weighted basket of
currencies, or a widening of the band in which the peg trades to the US dollar
within the first half.
"Either way, the result should be a small move against the US dollar, with
1-3 pct nominal appreciation through end-2004," he said.
China will also continue to build its foreign exchange reserves - with
growth accelerating to as much as 150 bln usd over the next 12 months - as the
central bank continues to sterilize hard currency inflows.
This will further pressure interest rates and monetary policy, but will also
mean that China, as a big buyer of US dollar assets, will not be responsible for
any collapse in the value of the dollar.

[straddle] 06/1/2004 09:34

Does anyone know a website, BB thread or unit/investment trust which discusses/invests in UK or international companies which profit from business done in China?

[the knowing] 05/1/2004 09:58

Hectorp ETQ is also a good SARs play.

[hectorp] 05/1/2004 08:39

We have a new confirmed SARS case... one case.
If this can be kept to low numbers then the viw that the disease is well contained and not a big threat will prevail. ( meanwhile hope veryone holds some OMH shares for the sales of monitors!).

[the knowing] 04/1/2004 23:52

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China estimates that its trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $53.2 billion in the first 11 months of 2003, despite an overall increase in trade volume, official figures issued Sunday show.

China's trade volume with the U.S. rose 29.3% year on year to $113.8 billion in the 11-month period, official customs figures show.

That tally ranks the U.S. as China's second largest trade partner after Japan.

Exports from China to the U.S. grew 31.8% year on year to $83.4 billion, outpacing a 22.9% rise in imports to $30.3 billion, General Administration of Customs figures published through the official Xinhua News Agency show.

The trade imbalance is smaller than official U.S. estimates of a record $120 billion shortfall in 2003.

However, the U.S. tally also includes Chinese-made exports shipped through ports in Hong Kong which aren't included in the calculations by China's customs office.

The U.S. has be unable to reduce its trade imbalance, despite tariff cuts and stronger import flows to feed both China's raw material hungry manufacturing sector and resurgent consumer demand.

China has been attempting to counter worries about the wider trade gap with two recent "Buy American" missions to the U.S. to purchase commodities and manufactured goods including jet aircraft and car fleets.

In the other rankings of China's top 10 trade partners, total trade volume between China and Japan grew 30.6% year on year to $119.9 billion in January-November.

Exports from China rose 22.1% to $53.3 billion against a 38.3% increase in imports to Japan to $66.7 billion.

That gave China a $14.4 billion deficit with Japan during the 11-month period, the customs figures show.

Other trading partners rounding out the top 10 during January to November 2003 are: the E.U., Hong Kong, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, South Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Australia and Canada.

[hectorp] 03/1/2004 17:59

My bank investment with far East exposure is STAN; but I believe its more a business bank.
The offering of Card facilities with what we think of as Western Banks is yet another move cementing the Chinese to the Western ethos.
On anothr point, I noted an FT comment that 'China may overheat... riots...' etc. Now this would be a big fright for investors, could it happne and if so when.
I don't expect this myself as it seems over alarmist. No shortage of bearish comments in the FT! Seems like wishful thinking from their resident bears. Is it not possible we will see a bubble long before any overheating effect. China markets could rise 50-60% in months . But then I'd be frightened.

[keyboard] 02/1/2004 12:44

ROUNDUP - China opens credit card market to Citibank, HSBC; risks seen

BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - China has finally opened the door to international banking giants Citigroup Inc unit Citibank and HSBC Holdings PLC to enter the country's fast-growing credit card business.

But analysts and even bank executives are not anticipating any return in the short term because of the high costs of acquiring customers, rising competition and credit risks.

Both foreign banks said their local partners have been given government approval to launch yuan and US dollar credit card operations in China.

HSBC launched today a co-branded credit card with the Bank of Shanghai, in which it holds an eight pct stake. Cardholders will be able to use the card at any overseas outlet accepting the Visa brand and pay their bills through their yuan account on the mainland.

Citibank said it expects to start issuing cards with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SHA 600000), in which it holds a 4.62 pct stake, within the next few weeks.

Neither Citibank nor Shanghai Pudong Development would disclose whether the card will be co-branded, but Citibank is providing all the management and technology expertise for the venture.

"According to international practice, we are prepared to see losses in the credit card business with Citibank in the initial two years because of the costs of aquiring new clients," Shangahi Pudong Development spokesman Yang Guoping told AFX-Asia.

But Shanghai Pudong expects to see significant returns in the long term as the credit card business becomes an important plank in its strategy to expand its consumer banking business, which currently accounts for only 10 pct of the bank's total income.

The bank aims to attract high-net worth individuals to sign up for its credit card and use this as a platform to sell them Shanghai Pudong's other personal banking services and products, Yang said.

But Yang Qingli, a senior banking analyst with CITIC Securities, sees plenty of problems ahead which could limit the profitability of credit card ventures.

These include intensifying competition, government control over interest rates and an undeveloped personal credit reference system.

"China still keeps tight control on interest rates, so management fees for credit card users are currently an important source of profit for issuers, with annual charges ranging from 20 to 100 yuan," she said.

Many other local banks, including China Merchants Bank (SHA 600036), are also starting to issue dual currency credit cards, she said.

"Local lenders are not afraid of engaging in price wars to attract customers," she said, adding this could pose a threat even if their services are inferior to those of sophisticated foreign institutions like Citibank.

"It is too early to forecast any profits from the credit card business of foreign banks, although it is certain that the credit card market has huge potential to grow over the long term," she said.

The absence of a comprehensive and reliable national personal credit reference system in China presents a significant risk to both local and foreign credit card issuers who cannot check the creditworthiness of potential customers in a country where the concept of debt repayment is not firmly entrenched.

The absence of a personal credit rating system has already become a serious problem in the auto sector. State media reported last year that about 30 pct of borrowers in this area have failed to repay their bank loans on time.

With this problem in mind, the government last week approved a new central bank law, which takes effect in February, requiring the People's Bank of China to start collecting corporate and personal credit status information for financial institutions as part of move to control risks in the financial sector.

The foreign banks themselves are also aware of the risks.

Both Citibank and HSBC have said they will initially limit their focus to Shanghai which has the most developed local personal credit status information system in the country.

The local government-sponsored system has compiled credit records for 3.25 mln residents and can provide complete personal credit status reports on 850,000 residents, according to a Shanghai government spokeswoman.

HSBC and Bank of Shanghai said their co-branded credit card is mainly designed for Shanghai residents who travel frequently between Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Citibank is more ambitious, saying it plans to distribute credit cards through Shanghai Pudong's 290 branches, although 119 are in Shanghai itself and most of the others are in major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou.

But Wang Li, Citibank's China spokeswoman, told AFX-Asia: "Credit cards will only be issued to clients with a sound credit status."

In spite of the risks, analysts say it's still worthwhile for foreign banks to venture into the yuan credit card business because it allows them to skirt China's ban on allowing them to offer yuan services to Chinese individuals until the end of 2006.

Citibank and HSBC will gain a major head start over their competitors who do not have local partners in attracting high net worth individuals and building up brand recognition ahead of the full opening of the banking market, analysts say.

Foreign banks who want to issue their own yuan credit cards to mainland residents will have to wait until 2007.

"These foreign banks are getting into China's personal yuan business indirectly ahead of China's opening schedule and gaining a competitive advantage," said Li Lei, an analyst with China Securities.

He believes the prospects for long-term profitability for foreign players in China's credit card business are good.

"This is a huge untapped market and these banks are focusing on affluent clients," he said.

"Foreign banks have much better ability to attract the 20 pct of affluent clients who generate 80 pct of the profit," he said.

He said Chinese commercial banks who blindly issued bank cards over the last few years to attract customers have made little money because of poor management, a lack of proper customer targetting and the relatively small proportion of credit cards issued as a percentage of overall bank cards.

Figures from the People's Bank of China show domestic financial institutions had issued 569 mln bank cards by the end of June 2003. But the vast majority of these were debit cards and rarely used.

A survey last year by credit card issuer Mastercard International estimated that only 1.0 mln were true credit cards with a further 24 mln having some kind of credit function.

(1 usd = 8.3 yuan)

[e-mail]

02/01/2004 10:49

[hectorp] 31/12/2003 19:27

so did Gympie - till this week! they had a sorry Xmas day ( fire in the mine - closed ... goodbye Gympie)

Happy N Y all Jap and Chin board readers.

[mcbeanburger] 31/12/2003 18:45

Shipping stocks:

FRO,

GMR,

OMM,

OSG,

TRMD,

TK,

VLCCF

[mcbeanburger] 31/12/2003 18:36

FDG Fording Canadian Coal Trust supplies China with Coal.

[oldolie] 30/12/2003 16:04

oops sorry thgt. this was the Royal Doulton thread.