I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tabhair] 01/9/2024 20:02

If you really rate the I3 assets, then there's a good way to play this.

If you vote for the deal and it goes through, there's likely going to be forced selling as many I3 shareholders/institutions will just indiscriminately dump their GTE shares. You could use your proceeds from the I3 sale at this point to increase your GTE position at what I would hope would be a discount.

I've been taking a closer look at GTE, it looks in a similar range of cheapness to I3 (although it's more levered). If the deal goes through and energy prices were doing okay and GTE went to $5-$6 I think you'd be getting a good price. A combined entity with a lot of the I3 SG&A costs taken out is going to likely produce better earnings. If we got strong energy prices, you could really get some juice in the shares.

Oh, it's not even 2 weeks since GTE made their offer. I haven't even mentioned the possibility of a rival bid....

I'll be voting yes, but am quite happy to sit tight here. If someone wants to come in and bid 16-17p in cash then I am perfectly fine with that.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 19:25

I don't think it will be more GTE shares. GTE won't want to breach a 20% threshold test which brings some US regulatory rules into play. Likely to be more cash via debt - I believe GTE have a bit of spare capacity to raise more through borrowing. As for the future, There is a deal at above 13p on the table now (with gas prices at historic lows) so why, if the deal falls through because shareholders say it isn't good enough, shouldn't the market reflect that in the SO?

[pretax2] 01/9/2024 17:19

Moonshot - you don’t know that. And even if GTE did up their offer, they don’t have enough cash. It would be more GTE shares.
I’m hoping for a rival offer, maybe Regent Aquisitions, but concerning the GTE vote, many investors have already sold out - many more will do before the vote (who wants to tie their money up for weeks on end).
There are about 7 angry ‘no votes’ on the bulletin boards, but they’re already sounding like an echo chamber.
If the GTE bid fails, with oil and gas prices souring, I think you could see I3E go back to 7-9p and stay there until next year.
BoD will hate the situation and won’t care about their day job or shareholder value (especially shareholder value).
A no vote is literally turkeys voting for Xmas.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 15:39

GTE will increase their offer.

[tag57] 01/9/2024 13:57

Moonshot. Should the offer be rejected what are your expected consequences?
Given the share price movement ever since the failed North Sea drill and should there be a lack of a second bid before the shareholder vote, Don’t see anything good to come from it due to the potential change in management, ongoing gas price etc.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 11:26

TonyAny chance you can spread the word on the LSE platform to get full traction with disgruntled PIs over there?Thank you.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 11:24

So for PIs no matter what the size of your I3E shareholding it is important to register a NO vote if you want to block the bid. Remember there are only 5 to 10 significant shareholders whereas there are thousands of retail investors. There's no way the majority in number of shareholders condition will be achieved if a majority of PIs vote against. In those circumstances, the bid will fail.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 10:09

The Green king plc (October 2019) case shows how the maths works. The judge noted that 1,789 shareholders out of 2,189 shareholders voted in favour. Because 1,789/2,189 was 50%+ in number and also represented 75%+ in value the scheme was approved. This completely changes your narrative to I3E PI shareholders in terms of getting them motivated to vote against. They have a real say.

[moonshot3] 01/9/2024 09:33

Hi Tony Not sure where you are looking. I am looking at the I3E website which has downloaded all the documents for investors. If you click on Rule 2.7 Announcement it takes you to the offer document. At page 54 (Appendix 1) the conditions for approval are laid out. At paragraph 2a, one condition is the approval by a majority in NUMBER ... of the Scheme Shareholders which equates to 75% in value.

[tonynorstrom1] 01/9/2024 06:41

"In addition, a special resolution relating to the Acquisition must be passed at the i3 Energy General Meeting, which requires the approval of i3 Energy Shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast at the i3 Energy General Meeting (either in person or by proxy)."

This is straight out of the form 2.7 announcement and is very clear to me. There is some other wording about "scheme shareholders" and "by value" that is less clear but the above requirement is in "addition" and must be met.

So its one share, one vote and they require 75% of those votes actually cast to pass the resolution. Lets assume no one votes except for those that have already provided an undertaking which is basically Polus and the BOD. In this case only 32% of the total voting rights have been voted but 100% of the votes are in favour of the resolution - so in this case the resolution is approved. This is why imo whilst not a slam dunk - the odds are in favour of the resolution being passed.

For the no vote to win over - we need some of the other institutions to vote no and a majority of PI's to vote no - this is a tall order imo as weve seen some PI's on here are in favour of the scheme (not a majority it would appear) and also historically many PI's dont bother to vote. My bet is that all institutions will vote so they hold the key.

[moonshot3] 31/8/2024 23:50

Just read an article by Dentons (law firm) on the Dee Valley Group plc case. The case was about splitting some shares to give shares to 434 new shareholders for the purpose of creating a majority number of separate individuals to oppose a scheme. The share splitting ruse was thrown out but the case shows that you do need to look at HEADCOUNT. So even if all the institutions vote YES, if a majority of separate shareholders vote NO, the scheme is rejected.

[moonshot3] 31/8/2024 23:05

..a NO vote by a large number of Retail Investors could block the deal. The wording in the article suggests you look at the NUMBER of SHAREHOLDERS who vote yes or no, in working out whether there is a majority not the PERCENTAGE of votes held by those who vote yes or no. If you are looking to muster support for a no vote, it would be worth checking this very important legal question.

[moonshot3] 31/8/2024 22:59

Hello Tony Following on from this, I have googled the topic. I came across an article published by Cooley M&A, posted on 26 April 2022. It says, "A majority vote means both a majority by HEADCOUNT of the shareholders voting at the scheme meeting and that the shareholders voting in favour at the meeting have 75% of the value." I am again wondering whether the large number

[tag57] 31/8/2024 18:16

Moonshot, probably depends if they have had access to the data room. If they have then will have already had access to most details regarding I3e but then the question would be why didn’t they bid higher during the sale process as I3e probably went though at least 2 bid rounds to squeeze out the best price?

[5chipper] 31/8/2024 17:15

Someone building a position could at least use their shares to vote ‘no’R30; then see what happens if vote fails

[scrwal] 31/8/2024 17:11

I suppose there could be a new bidder doing due diligence now which is approved by the company - could well explain the lack of any noise from the institutions who are holding back until the details of a new bid are released. This is just a hopeful supposition.

[moonshot3] 31/8/2024 13:20

Would a new bidder require more information than currently disclosed in the Scheme documentation before deciding to make a bid? Presumably yes. Incredibly tight timeline for a bidder to make a decision of this magnitude?

[grahamg8] 31/8/2024 11:01

In reality less than a month. Voting deadline is 3 October so votes will start being cast during the week preceding that. So probably too late after 26 September. But any bid needs a bit of time to sink in and be mulled over. So probably the week earlier, 19 September is about as late as a bidder would go. It is also probably about as early as a bidder would go so as to wrong foot GTE and anyone else who might be interested.

[pretax2] 31/8/2024 10:19

Regent gas part of Regent Acquisitions, a conglomerate of unrelated companies.
3% in i3e isn’t exactly showing their hand, but the timetable stretches more than a month.
Thoughts?

[pretax2] 30/8/2024 21:58

I wouldn’t expect 20p/sh but 14/15p cash at a squeek.
However they hold less than 3% currently with the timeline closing.

[moonshot3] 30/8/2024 21:31

Got it!Definitely in the plebs club...

[roundtheworld] 30/8/2024 21:13

Pretax

You might be right.

Majid went over to Canada 5 years ago on a wing and a prayer with no real team and made a good fist of it. These guys may fancy a pop.

[mr waite] 30/8/2024 20:59

Moonshot
You must be knew to Advfn
Only paid members can vote you down.
Those members are highlighted in blue while us plebs are in black.

[moonshot3] 30/8/2024 20:11

Score draw then. Fairly small sample size though.