I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 01/2/2018 13:19

Name, I agree.

[che7win] 01/2/2018 13:11

Thanks, I'm stunned at the upside on worst case scenarios, I like that it's dilution of assets rather than equity which really means the share price upside is incredible.I really think the market has missed this RNS.150P IS MY IMMEDIATE minimum target to reflect what we know.

[showme01] 01/2/2018 13:03

My take on the capital repayment is that the JV will provide funding and that capital will be repaid from cash flow once oil is sold. They also get up to 33% equity in the company. It's a great deal for both sides. They get their money back plus no doubt interest plus a stake in i3e. I3e have plenty of access to funds ( up to $200m) to develop this and any other assets they can secure including the 30th round bid.
It is worth noting that the other deal to just fund the 30th round bid asset was capital ba k plus a 50% share in the asset.
This new deal gives i3e more equity in the asset. Neill and Graham have plans to build up quite a company with multiple assets and I guess this JV gives them the funds to do it. Your figures are close to are correct, less development costs which shold mostly be covered now with Liberator, hence the 2 placings . It is not too good to true.
Zengas, I would apprecaite your thoughts on my assumptions here.

[cashandcard] 01/2/2018 13:01

che7win,


Cash generation will be strong given a $60+ brent crude environment and the fact they are trying to do a dynamic deal that does not mean huge upfront capital or ongoing costs. However, net returns are likely to be a little lower as the program and (potential) work on other related licenses will gobble up a lot of cash. Even then, I think, with most of the major oil analysts forecasting $60+ for the foreseebale (some as high as $70), £1.50 is a fair start point, once they can ink a deal.


Cash

[che7win] 01/2/2018 12:31

Liberator:

10000 barrels x $40 profits ($25 costs) = $400,000 profits per day.

Over 365 days per year, that is $146,000,000 profits.

We will have a free carry of 'no less than 67% of Liberator".

So our share is $146,000,000 x .67% = $98,720,000 profits.

Converting that to sterling amounts to £69,459,392 profits for I3E, just from Liberator.

After the fund raising, we will have 34,254,523 Ordinary Shares in issue.


So, EPS would be (£69,459,392 / 34,254,523 ) = 202.7p EPS.


WHAT AM I MISSING?
The only thing I'm not sure about is the capital return with the JV lender company?
Even if they get half of our share of profits as capital return for a couple of years to pay for Liberator, we are worth many multiples of this price to my simple mind!

I think we are worth 150p+ per share at this stage, I'm surprised we aren't in triple figures.

I'm a novice, please correct my thoughts here, the other license they are bidding on transforms the business if they get it and just adds to the upside.

I know the other way to look at this is on reserve value, but surely this is incredible value on any metric?

Feel free to correct me and educate my understanding, appreciate the comments from O&G experts.

[scotty666] 01/2/2018 12:31

Thanks assumed that was most likely, agree though it is nice to see some liquidity now in the shares as well as interest and of course the company moving forward with plans.

The bridge slide (7) Zengas posted the link to last night - I am happy to hold these until we get to the closing bar, especially as we will not get diluted to hell in the meanwhile.

Appreciate all the good info on here.
Cheers

[showme01] 01/2/2018 12:22

Scotty, I'm guessing most of them will be. This share needed some liquidity but that will soon dry up again as those buying at current prices will be holding for gains. More shares in free float was needed but I am delighted that we are only diluted by so few shares and then have a minimum of 67% of the asset. The JV will get their capital back from drilling costs through cash flow once the wells flow and also get a good stake in the company. They too have an excellent deal and we remind operator and majority stake holder.Win win

[scotty666] 01/2/2018 12:14

Probably an obvious question but assume I am correct in thinking the trades of this week which are heavy on the buy side will be settled by the new shares coming to market next week? Until this week you had to beg and steal for just 5k shares.

[showme01] 01/2/2018 11:41

These are all quite tightly held. Volume yesterday was the highest ever and when cosidering the BoD own half, me and a few mates own over 1 million between us, there is minimal free float.
I guess we have a few new holders after the last few days. Bit of consolidation is no bad thing at these levels after the rise. So much news due soon, 30th round bid, drilling approval, funding with a JV and the placing is out of the way. Happy days ahead.

[w1ndjammer] 01/2/2018 10:46

bought some more, this time in the ISA not heavy at the moment,
but watching and waiting

Not many know about this stock IG have less than 10 long positions open.

WJ.

[cashandcard] 01/2/2018 10:40

I like to compare this with JOG and clearly, the balance of risk in the assets and near-term development of Liberator puts this way ahead. Yet JOG is valued at £44mln with a discovery, and great potential. While this is valued at little over £17mln with line of sight to first production not very far off.



Cash

[duckdown] 01/2/2018 10:33

The fact you can still get these at the float price is unbelievable.

[che7win] 01/2/2018 09:08

Just added more here, delighted with the price.

[showme01] 31/1/2018 21:03

Zengas. Thanks for the breakdown. I still think most don't realise the huge potential here. The BoD are taking their time to do the right deal, especially considering the huge stake they both have.

[zengas] 31/1/2018 18:58

On the basis of todays news using 67% minimum indicated interest post investment funding - it's worth reflecting on Page 7 of the last presentation

Pre development and now using 67% interest and 34.25m shares (using £1/$1.40 exch rate).

Liberator is worth 130p/share. These are classified 2P reserves - no longer 2C - see recent RNS and it also does not include further potential reserves in the Liberator field as stated in the CPR.

With 2nd field 390p/share.

On production later this year 775p/share.

Further production target and reserves upgrade - do the maths on the same formula.



Page 7! 67% Interest. £1=$1.40. Dyor.

[barneygumble27] 31/1/2018 18:50

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/162418/i3-energy-secures-funding-north-sea-campaign/

[showme01] 31/1/2018 16:45

Chipper. Their fault for trading this. Those buying and holding will soon be rewarded.

[5chipper] 31/1/2018 16:18

Guess now there will be quite a few nursing losses or hanging on to small profits and each time it drops by 1p the finger moves closer to the sell button?

[nametrade] 31/1/2018 15:56

Jeez, wild ride today...
Not so sticky hands as the price drops...

[showme01] 31/1/2018 14:19

It's breakfast time here Toon! I will be hitting the beach soon :-))

[2prsimo] 31/1/2018 14:13

Could end the day finishing in the red - from a chart perspective no bad thing as some of the heat needs to be dissipated

[thetoonarmy2] 31/1/2018 14:13

Showme. I hope the price gets to where you want it mate really do but get out to the beach knock some rays out.:)

[roundup] 31/1/2018 14:07

Yellow.! That's a lot at one go; they must have a lot to sell

[falia] 31/1/2018 13:39

afternoon hike coming up

[5chipper] 31/1/2018 13:23

The Oil Man has had his say...

"i3 (I3E) has raised £2.57 million at 30p and has other "multiple funding options at an advanced stage". Farming out of Liberator appears to be close to completion and also some of its applications in the 30th round. One to watch although plenty to do."