Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[what is a login ?] 13/3/2008 08:33

Yes, NHB I later saw that you have been posting here since 2001! Well done. I discovered HYD only last year via Rivaldo while I was lurking on another thread in the first half of 2007. A couple of years ago a know-nothing PI could buy just about anything and it would go up. It's a lousy market at the moment. I have been looking at my portfolio to see whether I have any "rubbish" I can get rid of (although I still have BAY!). You know better than I do that HYD has shown steady growth over the past few years and has increased the dividend commensurately. In fact HYD is one of my favourite stocks. I don't know very much about the technicalites but with drinking water becoming scarcer, floods etc. and everybody pretending to be environmentalist, HYD should have plenty of business.

[nhb] 13/3/2008 08:27

G,

Pretty good. :-)) ....but not as good as 9 months ago! :-((

...and not as good as when CGT for AIM was 10% and not 18%!

Hence my recent moodies. :-))

NHB

[garth] 13/3/2008 07:42

And what kind of profit you are sitting on :0)

G.

[nhb] 12/3/2008 23:53

what is a login : I'm just frustrated with the current investment climate where anything outside oil and mining is being panned. So, you shouldn't take my recent posts seriously.

Mind you if you took the trouble to read this thread further back then today you would see I have been posting for about seven years. Which happens to be the same time that I have owned Hydro shares.

That should tell you what my true opinion of Hydro is.

Anyway, I will keep my frustrations to myself in future as it seems to be confusing you.

[what is a login ?] 12/3/2008 20:46

NHB I don't know how seriously to take your post. If you really mean this company is rubbish you should say why or quit being facetious. Are you really in a bad mood or are you just wearing ill-fitting shoes?

[nhb] 12/3/2008 16:36

Yeah, quite right mate (whoever you are) you sell those 10,000 Hydro shares for 1.58. Dump them quick. This company is rubbish.... No long term prospects at all.

[nhb] 07/3/2008 11:21

Some people want of this come what may! I suspect this is people wanting to sell before the capital gains tax changes take place in April. What's that saying? "Never make investment decisions based on tax reasons"!

Ultimately the decision to move from the full UK exchange to AIM gave a bad deal to small shareholders.

Yours in a bad mood....

NHB.

[gac100] 29/2/2008 11:19

NHB - that's bizarre, bordering on the perverse!!!

One complaint I have:

As with most of my small caps, when Education Development Intl released a trading update this morning, the company had 2 new brokers' notes up on its website hot on the heels of the RNS

Peel Hunt never seem to have a bloody note ready for HYD - my impression is PH could be doing a lot more for us than they do, grrr.

[nhb] 29/2/2008 11:10

Someone thinks Hydro are a sell!?

[rivaldo] 28/2/2008 13:53

HYD kept very quiet in the results about rainwater harvesting - no mention at all as far as I could see? There's usually more in the full report. But there's lots of news flow about this and lots happening in the UK.

The UK government is about to announce the sites of ten new eco-towns - these look like having anything from 75,000 to 200,000 new homes, and according to the BBC news all will have rainwater harvesting:



Terence Conran is building an "eco-hamlet" of 22 new homes with rainwater harvesting incorporated:



Asda's new "high-efficiency" stores also have rainwater harvesting:

[rivaldo] 28/2/2008 08:11

Steg, HYD are always restrained, which is part of their attraction for me. Note the wording - "we look forward to achieving further progress" is almost word for word the same as last year as a summary outlook.

As gac100 says, I think we can look forward to acquisitions soon, especially given the cash pile. If it's anything like Vexamus was it'll be a showstopper.

Forecasts should now be for 14p+ EPS this year I'd have thought? With potential further upgrades on acquisitions.

[stegrego] 28/2/2008 07:55

Nice numbers, realistic but slightly worrying outlook.

[gac100] 28/2/2008 07:54

As you say riv, excellent set of results

I see, also that acquisitions are now very much on the agenda.

PBT from North America up 5331% I make it!! -

and up to 28% of total from 1% last year.

Bruce the worry bear: that conservative EPS of 13p for 2008 can be forgotten, its going to be more than that :-)

[greek islander] 28/2/2008 07:46

Yes on the high side of solid!

[rivaldo] 28/2/2008 07:42

No probs. Excellent results today :o))

PBT and EPS well ahead of expectations, and 2008 forecasts will have to be raised I'd have thought.

And £4.8m of cash too on a £24m m/cap...

12.5p EPS compared to 11.2p as forecast, a substantial divi increase etc...

The narrative is balanced and cautious as usual, but the order book tells the story, being £7m compared to £4.6m last year.

Here they are:

[romi2nikki1] 27/2/2008 19:24

Rivaldo

Thanks for all the news articles.

[rivaldo] 26/2/2008 14:52

Bruce, I'm not in the business of making precise EPS forecasts - all I do know is that with HYD's fundamentals, expertise, IP, sector growth etc the prospects are terrific - and worldwide.

I think the eventual outer here will be via a takeover of HYD. When I don't know, but I can envisage it being at more than 300p even now, and in a year or two maybe 500p if the business continues to grow as it is.

Some recent unpublished news:



"Edited by the Buildingtalk Editorial Team on 13 February 2008

Stormcell controls surface water run off

Installation of Hydro International's Stormcell and Hydro-Brake stormwater control systems on one of the biggest sustainable commercial business development projects

Parc Bryn Cegin is a new business park being developed in North Wales on the outskirts of Bangor, Gwynedd by the Welsh Assembly Government with funding from the European regional development fund via the Objective 1 Programme, and managed by the Assembly's Department for the Economy and Transport.

It is planned to bring more than 1,600 jobs to North Wales.

The steeply sloping 36 hectare site is located on a bluff above the Afon (river) Cegin between the A5 and A55, with a fall of over 45 metres, so the development is arranged on a series of 9 plateaux connected by an access road spine.

As Nicola Wilkes, Senior Project Engineer for consulting engineers Jacobs points out: 'The steep slope, underlying rock formations together with the new development mean that stormwater runoff in this high rainfall area could potentially be a problem by increasing the run-off into the river'.

'The Stormcell and Hydrobrakes mitigate the effect of this increase and fulfil the Sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) principles for this project'.

'The environment agency limited the discharge rate to 5 litres per second per hectare into the river.

We designed a 1750 cu.m.stormwater control system based on three Stormcell storage tanks at points down the slope, attenuated with Hydro-Brake flow controls in the storm drainage which runs along the central roadway.

In this way, the site can be treated as three separate but interlinked catchment areas'.

'The Stormcell modular block storage tanks were chosen as it is one of the systems Dwr Cymru Welsh Water will adopt'.

'The loadbearing modules enable shallow tanks to be constructed in a variety of shapes to suit the topography without extensive civil works, a distinct advantage where the soil cover over the rock base is thin and slopes are steep; a low maintenance feature is the patented perforated pipe design for integral silt protection to the storage, minimising any maintenance requirements'.

The Phase 1 infrastructure was completed in May 2007 and the site is now ready for development in partnership with the Welsh Assembly Government's private sector development partner UK Land and Property, a Liverpool based property development company.

The next phase of on site development is currently being designed and is scheduled to start on site in 2008.

When fully developed the site will accommodate over 70,000 sq.m. of floor space, providing a new strategic site for business investment and development in North Wales.

Client: Welsh Assembly Government Department for the Economy and Transport.
Consultant Engineer: Jacobs UK .
Civils Contractor: Jones Bros."

[gac100] 25/2/2008 13:05

For 2008 conservatively EPS approx 13p, P/E 15/16 = 200p ish

Repeat, conservatively.

IMO quite considerable upside potential over the next few years from where we are (171p) - UK earnings should be solidly underpinned by the latter stages of UK regulated water industry planned capital expenditure under the fourth asset
management programme (AMP4) but the potential is really in the rate of growth in North America (and rest of the world to a lesser degree). Signs are that its beginning to take off.

But results on Thursday should give us a much better idea.

[bruce the worry bear] 25/2/2008 12:01

Posters could I suggest you please illustrate your enthusiasm or otherwise for this stock in terms of your forecasts for EPS growth for as far into the future as you dare with the appropriate justification. Then a useful discussion could be had and people's views could be easily translated into prices.
Eg. 07 11.17 08 +15% 09 onwards +2.5% = 151p
07 11.17 08 +15% 09 onwards +5.0% = 214p
07 11.17 08 +15% 09 onwards +10.0%= 285p

[rivaldo] 24/2/2008 09:30

An interesting blog here about someone building a new house incorporating HYD's rainwater harvesting Stormbank product. Hopefully a sign of growing popular acceptance, though the lead should come from the main building companies HYD already have links with, like Barratt etc:



"The net result is a around a 50% saving in the amount of mains water you need to use. Good eh?"

[rivaldo] 22/2/2008 10:49

I was right! The company has confirmed to me that the profit percentage in the original release was "nonsense".

The relevant extracts now read as per the RNS:

"As National Sales Manager, Mongeau oversaw a 34 percent sales growth
in the US Stormwater business in 2007."

"In 2007 Raymond led his team to achieve record performance by increasing the US Wastewater Division's order intake (excluding the City of Clearwater order
received in late December) by 80 percent and its revenue by 40 percent over the
previous year's statistics."

[orange1] 22/2/2008 08:11

Thanks Gac. Now I see it.

[gac100] 21/2/2008 23:28

Just posting 2006 geographic segmental analysis ahead of 2007's next week for ready comparison.

BY ORIGIN
(Revenue 2006) [PBT 2006]
UK (£16.7m; 75%) [£1575k; 86%]
N AMERICA (£4.2m; 19%) [£26k; 1%]
EUROPE (£1.5m; 7%) [£233k; 13%]

BY DESTINATION
(Revenue 2006)
UK (£16.3m; 73%)
N AMERICA (£3.8m; 17%)
EUROPE (£1.5m; 7%)
REST WORLD(£0.8m; 4%)

The Rest of the World revenue was generated about equally through the UK and US divisions.

It'll be interesting to see the 2007 segmental breakdown. Note that last year North America generated 19% of revenue but only 1% of PBT.