Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 18/7/2008 16:29

Ta for the article Mas, is there a link?

Agred skirbell, about as pretty as most companies' charts at present, though a lot better than many! But HYD is more about illiquidity/volatility, so any small selling is magnified in its effect on the price. Hopefully that'll also be reflected in an upward direction after the interims or a trading statement given the positive AGM statement, the increased Impax stakeholding and the debut share buying by the FD.

[skirbell] 18/7/2008 12:30

Looking at the chart again, it's still not pretty. We still have lower highs and lower lows which signals a (rather obvious) down trend. There was a messy penant formed which broke to the downside indicating a continuation of the trend. I think we may see further falls to around the 130p area.

Fundamentals look great though and at 130p HYD would be on a prospective two year PE of 7.2 and a yield of 2.8% - very attractive for a steady growth stock, so I think it will find support at some point shortly.

[masurenguy] 18/7/2008 11:42

Saw this posted on another thread - just underlines the great potential for HYD !
.................................................................................

Coming Soon, War for Water!

MUMBAI -- After global warming, what is the biggest problem the globe is facing now? It is water. If you want to know the seriousness of the situation just take the case of India's Cherrapunjee. Cherrapunjee once boasted of being the 'wettest place on earth'. Now also it gets around 40 feet of rain a year. However, Indian government is now seeking Israeli water management experts' help to manage and retain water that today sluices off the area's deforested landscape so that the area can get water when there is no rain. Take another example of Rajasthan where lakhs of people (almost always women) spend hours per day carrying water up to several miles for their family's needs because no source is close at hand.

On the other side of the globe, in Barcelona, Spain, people are paying a fine of $13,000 if they were caught watering their gardens. According to media reports, a tanker ship is docked in Barcelona this month carrying 5 million gallons of precious fresh water and officials are scrambling to line up more such shipments to slake public thirst.

Again, Cyprus is ferrying water from Greece. Australian cities are buying water from farmers and building desalination plants. Thirsty China plans to divert Himalayan water. In southern California, citizens are bracing to face water-rationing. So, the world may go to war for water in the coming years. Experts say that water is the oil of this century.

Blue Gold

According to researchers, developed nations have taken cheap, abundant fresh water largely for granted. Now global population growth, pollution and climate change are shaping a new view of water as 'blue gold'. Global water markets, including drinking water distribution, management, waste treatment, and agriculture are a nearly $500 billion market and growing fast. But governments pushing to privatize public water systems are colliding with a global "water is a human right" movement. Because water is essential for human life, its distribution is best left to more publicly accountable government authorities to distribute at prices the poorest can afford. According to experts, the world is at a transition point where fundamental decisions need to be made by societies about how this basic human need is going to be provided. The profit motive and basic human need for water are just inherently in conflict. What's different now is that it's increasingly obvious that the world is running up against limits to new fresh water supplies, says a water expert. It's no longer cheap and easy to drill another well or dam another river.

The idea of "peak water" is an imperfect analogy. Unlike oil, water is not used up but only changes forms. The world still has the same 326 quintillion gallons. But some 97% of it is salty. The world's remaining accessible fresh-water supplies are divided among industry (20%), agriculture (70%), and domestic use (10%). Meanwhile, fresh-water consumption worldwide has more than doubled since World War II to nearly 4,000 cubic kilometres annually and set to rise another 25% by 2030. Up to triple that is available for human use, so there should be plenty, the report says. But waste, climate change, and pollution have left clean water supplies running short.

The world has ignored demand for decades, just assuming supplies of water would be there. Now people have to learn to manage water demand and – on top of that – deal with climate change, too. Population and economic growth across Asia and the rest of the developing world is a major factor driving fresh-water scarcity. The earth's human population is predicted to rise from 6 bn to about 9bn by 2050. Feeding them will mean more irrigation for crops. Increasing attention is also being paid to the global "virtual water" trade. It appears in food or other products that require water to produce, products that are then exported to another nation. The U.S. may consume even more water – virtual water – by importing goods that require lots of water to make. At the same time, the U.S. exports virtual water through goods it sells abroad. As scarcity drives up the cost of fresh water, more efficient use of water will play a huge role, experts say. In the U.S. today, about 33.5 million Americans get their drinking water from privately owned utilities that make up about 16% of the nation's community water systems.

But private companies' promises of efficient, cost-effective water delivery have not always come true. Bolivia ejected giant engineering firm Bechtel in 2000, unhappy over the spiking cost of water for the city of Cochabamba. Last year Bolivia's president publicly celebrated the departure of French water company Suez, which had held a 30-year contract to supply La Paz.

Private water industry officials say those pushing to make water a "human right" are ideologues struggling to preserve inefficient public water authorities that sell water below the cost to produce it and so cheaply it is wasted - doing little to extend service to the poor. Global warming isn't going to change the amount of water, but some places used to getting it won't, and others that don't, will get more. Water scarcity may be one of the most underappreciated global political and environmental challenges now. Water woes could have an impact on global peace and stability.

China & India

In the developing world – particularly in China, India, and other parts of Asia – rising economic success means a rising demand for clean water and an increased potential for conflict. China is one of the world's fastest-growing nations, but its lakes, rivers, and groundwater are badly polluted because of the widespread dumping of industrial wastes. Tibet has huge fresh water reserves. While news reports have generally cited Tibetans' concerns over exploitation of their natural resources by China, little has been reported about China's keen interest in Tibet's Himalayan water supplies, locked up in rapidly melting glaciers. Himalayan water is particularly sensitive because it supplies the rivers that bring water to more than half a dozen Asian countries. Plans to divert water could cause intense debate.

Tibet is not the only water-rich country wary of a water-poor neighbour. Canada, which has immense fresh water resources, is wary of its water-thirsty superpower neighbour to the south. But don't look for a water pipeline from Canada's northern reaches to the U.S. southwest anytime soon. Water raises national fervor in Canada, and Canadians are reluctant to share their birthright with a United States that has mismanaged – in Canada's eyes – its own supplies.

The lack of clean, safe drinking water is estimated to kill almost 4,500 children per day. In fact, out of the 2.2 million unsafe drinking water deaths in 2004, 90% were children under the age of five. Water is essential to the treatment of diseases, something especially critical for children. The world water crisis is created by a confluence of factors including climate and geography, lack of water systems and infrastructure, and inadequate sanitation, something that 2.6 billion people (40% of the world's population) lack access to.

By arrangement with www.commodityonline.com.

[rivaldo] 10/7/2008 20:56

HYD are presenting at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:



"Innovations and Paradigm Shifts for Integrated Urban Water Management Seminar
Date and Location
July 16, 2008
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Urban Watershed Management Branch
Building 205 Conference Room
2890 Woodbridge Avenue
Edison, New Jersey, 08837 Morning Session (9.00am – 12:00 noon)
Theme: Integrated Stormwater Management in Urban Environments

An overview of stormwater control and treatment; technologies and paradigm shifts.
Significance of effective flow control and regulation coupled with storage and infiltration systems for flood control and mitigation of adverse wet-weather impacts.
"Tomorrow's world" and 25 years of effective inlet control and distributed storage for flood control and alleviation.
Highlights of recent developments and advancements, particularly in relation to the importance of capturing and retaining sediments and their associated pollutants to prevent "pollutant washout."
Experiences with Field Monitoring of Stormwater Treatment Systems; protocols and the relevance of land use.
Afternoon Session (1.30pm – 3:30pm)

Theme: Addressing CSO Challenges with Innovation

Paradigm shifts in current thinking and approaches to wet-weather management; importance of wastewater characterization.
The significance and benefits of effective flow control and regulation coupled with the use of satellite treatment to achieve cost-effective wet-weather management.
Highlights of recent developments and advancements involving the intensification of unit processes by achieving solids control, floatables capture and disinfection in the same vessel.
Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in the development and assessment of wet-weather treatment devices.
The use of advanced vortex systems for CSO treatment and disinfection; the Saco WWTW Case Example.
Presenters:
Professor Bob Andoh
Director of Innovation for Hydro International"

[rivaldo] 10/7/2008 12:24

And there's our buyer - Impax have bought another 200,000 shares:



They're now up to 1.39m shares, or 9.75%. Quite a large bet on HYD now.

[rivaldo] 09/7/2008 14:56

Hmm...15k shares sold today yet the price is up? Presumably a buy or two not yet been reported, or a buyer in the background. Perhaps the new note has found its way to people's desks faster than I thought.

[rivaldo] 08/7/2008 14:35

Steg, I've already got my allocation. If I didn't I'd be topping up. Short-term of course people may be nervous of the market in general and of HYD's illiquidity, unless you take a longer view in which case HYD's fundamentals remain excellent. If I have spare funds I may just be persuaded to part with those funds!

The FD's purchase of a maiden stake just before the end of H1 is certainly a good sign.

[stegrego] 07/7/2008 17:17

Has the note made you want to buy more of these at this price Riv?

[rivaldo] 07/7/2008 15:21

Gac, it's dated 1st July so only last Tuesday. Any fund managers, institutions etc will take a month or more to take any decisions prompted by the note I'd have thought.

Let's hope the FED's share buying and the postive recent outlook signal good H1 figures for a start. Seems to me that recent trading has been driven by a few small sells in a bear market, i.e negligible volumes in an illiquid stock. The usual story with HYD!

[gac100] 06/7/2008 14:55

Thanks for the PH figures riv. Do you know did the note come out before the recent share price drop, or is it hot off the press and we've yet to see its effect on the sp?

[rivaldo] 06/7/2008 07:56

The new note is out - and I have a paper copy! That's the good news. The bad news is I'm under sufferance not to disclose too much other than the actual forecasts.

Peel Hunt go for (remember HYD made 11.9p EPS last year):

This year - 13.6p EPS, £2.8m PBT, 3.2p divi
Next year - 16.3p EPS, £3.4m PBT, 3.4p divi
31/12/10 - 18.0p EPS, £3.7m PBT, 3.7p divi

They conclude HYD is undervalued (and that the housebuilding decline will be more than compensated by various other factors).

It's an excellent 28 page note covering all the recent legislative and trend changes which will benefit HYD (especially in the EU and USA), the Eutek acquisition etc etc. That's about as much as I can say.

[nhb] 03/7/2008 15:11

I suspect HYD must be being painted with the housebuilders brush...at least in the mind of the market maker. Unless there's a big seller in the wings. Not good timing if it is.

[mdjuk] 03/7/2008 11:00

The fall was once again on a small trade, this time of only 3000 shares. I do not know if the Peel Hunt report is out or not, but the vast majority of share price variations for HYD bear have no logical origin. Flooding is a major issue, see The Microdrainage conference featured in the clip suggests that much higher return period storms may be designed for in future - for a 1 in 250 year return period as opposed to the present 1 in 50 year. As HYD sells stormwater storage systems (Stormcell & Stormbloc) this is excellent news from their perspective as it means far greater sales. Incidentally, the speaker briefly shown on stage at the conference is Alex Stephenson, HYD's stormwater director. People have short memories but these will be reinforced with every flood event that occurs. Major spending in this sector would appear to be the logical progression.

[stegrego] 01/7/2008 18:45

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-06-08 CORP 2.60 12.91 2.70


Maybe they have put the note out now?

[rivaldo] 26/6/2008 22:16

It's scandalous :o))



"Tougher flooding regulations required for new homes
25 June, 2008

By Alex Smith

Homes being built without flood resistance is "scandalous" says author of report into 2007 floods

New building regulations must be introduced to force developers to improve the flood resilience of new homes, says a report on the devastating 2007 floods.

The author of the Pitt Review said regulations were needed because new homes were being built with inappropriate materials.

Speaking on BBC Radio Sir Michael Pitt said: "It is scandalous that new property is now being built with materials that are susceptible to flooding."

"All new homes in flood risk areas should be built with sustainable urban drainage and flood resistant materials.

The Pitt Review said that the government, local authorities and the public should take flooding more seriously. It contains 92 recommendations on making Britain better able to cope with the scale of flooding seen last year.

The Pitt Review is an independent report commissioned by the government."

[rivaldo] 26/6/2008 10:25

I see the report on last year's flooding was out yesterday. I heard an interview with the main man responsible - the first thing he mentioned was the need to provide sustainable drainage solutions in all new developments.

Been a bit out of touch recently with other things on the go and holidays - I think he also mentioned there's a Bill going through Parliament to enact anti-flooding measures? When I get time I'll have a trawl around.

[rivaldo] 22/6/2008 19:48

Intriguing stuff at present. KBC have sold 200k shares, going down from 753k to 553k shares, yet the share price in this illiquid stock is going up!

Seems to me that KBC must be profit-taking to feed a buyer out there who's happy to take stock off their hands. There's no way such trades would go through normally without the price being affected (the proof is surely the 10k etc sell trades still going through).

Hopefully we'll see an RNS at some point to se who's buying, though it's possible the buyer isn't up to 3% yet if they're takign a new position.

[gac100] 19/6/2008 15:57

Agreed riv, and I'm sure the time will come when HYD will start to attract more institutional investors ... Look forward to it :-)

[rivaldo] 19/6/2008 14:43

A new FTSE environmental index is being launched in conjunction with Impax:



"FTSE Group, in conjunction with environmental investment company Impax Group, has launched the FTSE Environmental Opportunities All-Share Index.

The new index comprises 450 constituents and will cover alternative energy and energy efficiency; water treatment and pollution control, and waste technologies; and resource management. It is one of a series of environmental indices that Impax and FTSE are developing together."

Given the emphasis on water and pollution and Impax's large holding in HYD it doesn't take much imagination to see HYD as a constituent member!

[rivaldo] 18/6/2008 22:09

Nice post mdjuk. Clarified a few things in my own mind too.

[mdjuk] 18/6/2008 18:49

With HYD's share price history there doesn't always seem to be a reason for large increases or falls. More often than not tiny volumes of share trading result in large changes to the share value. However, to pick up on Quickmind and Rivaldo's discussions -recent history has shown HYD expanding heavily into the wastewater sector - hence the purchase of Vexamus a few years ago in the UK and the purchase back in May of this year of Eutek Systems in the US. In so doing HYD's reliance on the storm water market is being dissipated. The recent acquisition also shows HYD's strong determination to crack the US market through increased investment, where historically it hasn't made anywhere near the progress that it has achieved in the UK. It seems logical that the building slow down will impact sales of storm water products directly related to new housing developments but HYD's record £1.6M storm water order in May was for a major flood prevention scheme in Glasgow and was not related to the housing industry. It seems likely that such high-profile flood prevention schemes will continue as a result of both climate change and the increasing monetary cost of rectifying flood damage. The reference to the mid-90s performance is, I think, misleading as the current whole organisation / management team / expanded group of companies bears no relation to what it was at that time. Nor were climate change and flooding such topical issues. My own view, based upon recent press releases and the last annual report, is that HYD should be in for another highly profitable year.

[asparks] 18/6/2008 13:53

a significant rise today (biggest for quite a few months) but reported trade vol low.

news on the way?

large late buys tto be reported?

[asparks] 18/6/2008 13:51

5-day chart showing bid/offer spread shaded - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - and intraday chart



+ 3 month charts -----------------------------------------------------------and 2 year charts

[gac100] 18/6/2008 11:37

garth 2253 ... or has the broker note finally appeared???

[masurenguy] 18/6/2008 11:25

rivaldo - you've got mail !