Hydro Intl Share Discussion Threads

[sg31] 07/10/2007 20:22

Traderabc,what is this? 20 questions.The posters on this board are generally holders,we hold because we think this is a good investment.If you ask questions like your last the obvious answer you will get is that the share price will break upwards.To be honest your guess is as good as ours,we do not have crystal balls.Look at your charts,if you believe in them,do you own research then invest,or don't the choice is yours.

[traderabc] 07/10/2007 13:58

gac100,riv,spandy,thanks for the imput,I'm glad they are aware of the $ risks and have acted accordingly.
To change the subject a little,from looking at the chart,I get the impression the present formation implies a break out ahead,the range is narrowing,would anyone agree that the next move should be fast and extend at least 30p-50p ?
Again the big question must be,in which direction?

[gac100] 07/10/2007 12:58

riv, splandyandy - spot on

traderabc - HYD does hedge foreign currency exposure with forward exchange contracts and options (per latest interims). More detail and position at end of last year in Note 21 to the 2006 Annual Accounts ( You say "there is a distinct possibility of a major retrenchment across all the indexes,the question for me is 'when' not 'if'." No one can argue with that, in fact its a certainty: could be next week, next month, next year, the year after etc, but at some point it'll happen. You can either hope to time the markets and sell out of equities, or carry on holding through the rough patches. HYD isn't going to be immune to a market crash, though it may not suffer as much as highly geared companies with poor cash flow

[rivaldo] 07/10/2007 10:33

Exactly andy. There are far more material issues to think about than dollar hedging on HYD's US sales, If and when (hopefully soon, maybe even this year!) US sales take off to say 30% or more of sales then these things become more important.

The same goes for a market crash - obviously HYD isn't immune, why even bother to ask the question as it's so self-evident?! The more relevant question is whether HYD is more or less immune than other companies, and the answer imo is that HYD is a safer bet, due to the regulatory, environmental, global growth factors etc that HYD are benefiting from and that we've constantly reiterated here. Along with the £3m cash pile and the reasonable fundamentals of course.

[splandyandy] 07/10/2007 08:16

Must admit to being puzzled by your pessimism traderabc! I bought in at around 18 pence approx 9 yrs ago then sold at 30 feeling smug. Bought in again at 90p and am definitely holding this one for the long term this time. Hindsight would have been very nice but .........imho this one was a good bet even before climate chaos, global warming, and heaps of legislature on water management arrived. Building regulations on new houses in uk may well include a requirement for wastewater recycling in the not too distant future and hyd already has products for this. I'm content to hold and if the share price of hyd dips at all, that'll be the time to buy some more ! Or you could put your money under the mattress! Good luck whatever you decide to do.

[traderabc] 06/10/2007 14:32

Rivaldo
Thanks for pointing out that. You are correct I have not researched this company enough.Do you know if this company are aware the $ risks,do they 'hedge' those risks in any way? I get the impression that they look towards the USA as their major growth area,if that is correct is it not reasonable to be concerned?
The market as a whole does worry me as I have still got a lot of exposure. I feel that there is a distinct possibility of a major retrenchment across all the indexes,the question for me is 'when' not 'if'. I noticed you have called for a big rise with this over the next few years,you may well be correct,however would you conceed that in the event of a general market decline Hydro would not be immune?

[rivaldo] 06/10/2007 12:26

Hmmm....methinks a little more research necessary here trader abc.

HYD's US sales represented a mere 17% of sales in 2006, at £3.76m. Not exactly "large exposure"....and that's even if you accept all the "end of the world" guff floating around, in which case you'd have sold everything by now anyway I'd have thought.

The USA represents a huge opportunity for HYD in view of legislative and environmental considerations, as would be evident from a read of recent results statements.

Furthermore, HYD are addressing that opportunity by increasing sales in an inexpensive and efficient manner by appointing distributors/sales reps etc instead of building a huge infrastructure, so ramp up costs should be relatively small.

[traderabc] 06/10/2007 12:08

I hold this from 85p,however I'm worried about its large exposure to the USA and thereby the doomed US $. I just can't see how this stock will not lose value suddenly when the extent of the economic problems that country faces become more common knowledge.
Perhaps I read too much stuff like this.

[rivaldo] 06/10/2007 09:54

Ta alter ego, exactly - if you trust the management then the worldwide potential, beneficial environmental factors, HYD's IP, the cash pile, assets and fundamentals etc all combine to make this a worthwhile long-term hold imo. It's already a 160% gainer for me, but if HYD doesn't get bought out first I can see a similar gain over the next two years with AMP4, the USA and the EU Water Framework Directive all ramping up.

Incidentally, with ref to your comment about competition in the USA I understand from a Peel Hunt broker note and from the company that a major competitor has had problems which have opened up opportunities for HYD in the USA. I'm unsure what those problems are or the name of the company from memory.

News of a Downstream Defender to be used in Portland, USA:



"Shopping plaza to transform Newick's site

By Linda Hersey

SCARBOROUGH (Oct 5, 2007): A drive-through coffee shop, hair salon, men's formal wear store and home-health care center are among the shops set to open next summer in a retail plaza planned for the site of the former Newick's Seafood Restaurant in South Portland."

""If we were to install a retention pond, many of the trees would have to be cut down – thus defeating our goal," said Hurtubise, who works with T&T Development. Instead, she said, a so-called "downstream defender" has been designed to clean and filter the water overflow into Anthoine Creek. "This is a more environmental-friendly situation," she said."

[alter ego] 04/10/2007 11:11

Rivaldo, certainly looks like HYD are trying to push in USA judging by strength of team attending WEFTEC. Last accounts show USA turnover only about 25% of UK t/o so must be lots of scope for ramping it up. I imagine they have some serious competition there but don't know if this is the case? The problem about trying to time entry or exit points on a stock like this is that once you know it's the right moment so does everyone else. My take is that this company has the right products and demand trends look highly favourable. As long as management are competant shareholders should benefit. Like you, I think it's worth tucking these away and letting time do the rest.

[rivaldo] 04/10/2007 10:18

Polzeath, could well be - depends on your point of view I suppose. For a company with worldwide potential and exploding markets HYD will soon be on a reasonable current year P/E of 16.7, and maybe less if results lead to upgrades.

That P/E reduces to say 13 or 14 if you strip out the cash pile.

Then there are other outers for the share price:

- HYD get taken over : this seems extremely likely, be it in 2008 or 2010
- more contract announcements, especially with AMP4 ramping up now
- more earnings-enhancing acquisitions using HYD's cash pile
- further investment from environmental and other institutional investors in what is generally an illiquid stock
- maybe even property dvelopment news?

So if you're not already in but are interested, the question is whether to wait or not. Personally I'm in this for the long-haul unless something goes drastically wrong.

[polzeath] 03/10/2007 22:50

Just me, Riv - but could be a flat share price 6 months, plenty in the price already, thought about buying for the last few months but decided against as can't see the up, not so bad already.

[rivaldo] 03/10/2007 22:44

HYD are pushing the boat out in the USA:



"Hydro International to Exhibit at WEFTEC 2007
03-Oct-2007

Hydro International will showcase its full line of products addressing grit removal and combined sewer overflows at the WEFTEC 2007 conference in San Diego on Oct. 15-17.The WEFTEC conference, hosted by the Water Environment Federation, is the largest conference addressing water quality issues in North America. The annual event attracts more than 18,000 attendees and more than 1,000 exhibitors.

Hydro's exhibit booth will include displays highlighting its industry-leading Grit King® process for removing grit from wastewater streams. The Grit King device, an advanced vortex separator that augments gravitational forces to separate grit from water, has been proven in side-by-side field trials to be up to 15 times as efficient as other grit removal systems. The Grit King System consists of the separator unit and a grit washer/classification unit. Valving, grit classifiers, grit pumps, dewatering decanters, and control systems are available as part of a comprehensive grit-removal package.

The exhibit also will focus on Hydro's full range of award-winning CSO solutions, which includes treatment equipment to clean sewer overflows up to primary treatment equivalence and flow controls to manage wet weather flows for storage, separation and deep tunnel storage schemes.

Hydro will be represented by an array of top executives and sector experts including CEO Steve Hides, Director of Innovation Robert Andoh, President Ed Izzo, Operations Manager Neil Raymond, National Sales Manager Ken Medlin, Wastewater Products Manager Glenn Murphy, R&D Manager Kwabena Osei and Export Sales Manager Graeme Fenton. Also representing Hydro at the show will be officials from KriStar Enterprises of Santa Rosa, Calif., the California distributor of the company's stormwater product lines."

[alter ego] 23/9/2007 13:14

rivaldo, thanks for your postings. Recently bought in to what I hope will turn out to be a strong growth story over the next few years. Happy to tuck away and wait while the inevitable demand for better water handling makes its impact.

[rivaldo] 22/9/2007 17:50

From Impax's report from yesterday - interesting stuff from the USA on HYD's specialist area of stormwater management in view of HYD's expansion over there:

"In the water sector, the Geneva-based World Meteorological
Organization reported a record number of climate and weather extremes
around the world since the beginning of 2007. These include more
than 70 serious floods and the first ever documented cyclone in the
Arabian Sea. In the US, New York experienced a record three inches
of rain over three hours, bringing the subway to a standstill and
causing severe delays to thousands of commuters. Governor Eliot
Spitzer responded by ordering a Metropolitan Transit Authority report
on stormwater management. This coincided with an audit which found
that the city's drinking water system is losing 35 million gallons a
day through leaks, leading to a separate award of a US$239 million
contract to start the repair work."

[rivaldo] 21/9/2007 15:00

Crikey - looks like the above contracts persuaded someone to sell £3.5k's worth!

Yet more news flow - HYD's IP bringing forth new products:



"News Release

New Hydro-Brake(R) chamber guide demonstrates drop-in water flow control (21 September 2007)

The new literature and users' guide for the Hydro-Brake(R) Chamber showcases the even more convenient format for the Hydro-Brake(R) Flow Control developed by Hydro International with partner CPM Group. Designed specifically for the busy contractor and developer, the Hydro-Brake(R) Chamber saves time and money by minimising on-site fitting and installation work.

The Hydro-Brake® Flow Control has become the industry standard for minimal maintenance, power-free stormwater attenuation. It is now available pre-fitted in the specially designed, reinforced precast concrete Hydro-Brake® Chamber and sized to match flow requirements. The Chamber is delivered to site ready to be placed in the hole and connected to inlet and outlet pipes, without additional work.

The 12 page brochure contains comprehensive information about how the Chamber is tailored to meet site requirements, including precoring and forming to fit the specified inlet pipes, complete with preformed internal benching, and with step irons if requested. This greatly reduces the time normally taken in completing the installation, while all internal work is completed to the highest possible standard.

The dimensions and installation details are all included, with comprehensive data on the benefits of flow control with the Hydro-Brake® Flow Control Device.

As well as the standard Hydro-Brake® Chamber models, the guide demonstrates the other configurations available to meet a variety of site conditions, including penstocks, weir wall overflows, and parallel Hydro-Brake® installations for complex, staged discharge requirements.

If you would like a free copy of the Hydro-Brake® Chamber Users' Guide or details of any of Hydro International's stormwater, wastewater and sewage treatment systems, please call 0800 269371."

[rivaldo] 20/9/2007 22:56

And there's more good news...



"Hydro's Stormbloc® Stormwater System Delivers Cost Reductions for Cumbrian Office Development
19-Sep-2007

DEVELOPERS of a prestigious new office development in West Cumbria have identified a cost efficient solution to control stormwater runoff in a heavy rainfall area using Hydro's Stormbloc® modular storage system and a Hydro-Brake® Flow Control device.

Contractor Thomas Armstrong (Construction) Ltd, who designed and built the spectacular new three floor West Cumbria House at Lillyhall, Workington, needed to provide stormwater runoff attenuation for the roof and external hard paved areas. They identified significant benefits by taking advantage of the loadbearing properties of Hydro's technology to reduce installation costs.

West Cumbria House is a multi occupancy office building for West Cumbria Development Agency with offices to let to new and expanding companies to help improve the local economy.

The site is located in a 1000 mm-a-year high rainfall area and the stormwater system was required to control runoff from 8000 m2 of roof, car park and vehicle yard to meet a discharge limit of 11litres/sec. The original proposal was for a 500 m3 GRP tank approx. 4 m in diameter by 40 m long, buried under the car park.

Bob Boardman, Project Manager for Thomas Armstrong, commented: "Although relatively inexpensive in capital terms, the original plan required the tank to be installed in concrete for structural support under the car park. This entailed deep excavation into stiff clay to prepare the site then, to sink the tank into the poured concrete, a lengthy process of progressive ballasting it with water. In addition at this depth, the tank would have also required a pump installation to empty it for discharge to the drain invert level with implications for access, maintenance and running costs.

"The alternative we adopted was Hydro's Stormbloc® modular storage system. As Stormbloc® is loadbearing, it needed minimal structural work to install, and could be configured as a much shallower profile storage solution, requiring excavation to only 2 metres for a 500m3 tank which was simpler and safer. This meant less shoring, no concrete and less cartaway and spoil disposal costs. Also, at this shallower depth, attenuation with Hydro-Brake® Flow Control Devices was feasible to match the invert depth for discharge to the storm drain, and a pump was not required, reducing operating and maintenance costs."

The new Stormbloc® Inspect access chamber gives excellent access to the inspection channels built into the Stormbloc® tank, and the Hydro-Brake® Flow Control is un-powered and requires minimal maintenance. Overall, the installation offers a much more attractive solution in terms of design, CDM compliance and ongoing operation and maintenance costs."

[rivaldo] 20/9/2007 12:21

Impax Environmental have raised another £103m:



Hopefully they'll be topping up their existing stake in HYD.

[rivaldo] 17/9/2007 15:06

Thx for reminding me gac100 :o))

Intriguing that on a day like this someone's prepared to splash out £35k on buying 15,800 HYD shares at 221p.

[gac100] 14/9/2007 10:02

Riv, that's about the size of it as I recall.

You posted the following on 8 May (post 1675), if that's any help:

'I talked with the Collins Stewart analyst about his forecast for 2007. I asked if his EPS was "basic" or "adjusted" and he said "Oooh, that's a bit technical" and had to rustle through his papers and look it up! Unbelievable...I should have been an analyst, these guys are just useless.

It turns out that his 10.68p EPS is not worth the paper it's written on as far as I can see - my notes were as follows:

- it's fully diluted based on 14.3m shares rather than on the 14.13m in issue
- it uses a 30% tax rate which he admitted was conservative compared to last year's 27%
- and it assumes just 15% PBT growth when last year achieved 28% and even the prior year achieved (despite Vexamus) 18%!
- plus it ignores the 3 large recent contract win RNS's'

[rivaldo] 12/9/2007 14:28

I don't have access to prior forecasts any more, but from memory I believe Peel Hunt have increased the forecasts for this year EPS-wise? I think they were forecasting around 10.5p EPS, but post-interims that's now 11.16p EPS for this year, with 12.85p EPS for next year (the same as before I think)....it'd be good if someone could confirm or otherwise.

At 220p HYD is well below the 233p at which the IC was saying Buy.

[rivaldo] 11/9/2007 22:00

Agreed about the nice response to the results. Some interesting trades in the last few days too - a 25k buy at 223p and 55k shares bought today in two deals, including 35k at 221p on a T trade. Perhaps some accummulation going on?

News from the USA:


"Hydro International Technical Papers to Present Stormwater Solutions at Floodplain Conferences in Indiana and Wisconsin
28-Aug-2007

Hydro International, a leading provider of environmentally sustainable products and innovative solutions that control and treat stormwater, wastewater and combined sewer overflows, will present technical papers at a pair of upcoming conferences hosted by environmental groups in Indiana and Wisconsin.

A Hydro representative will deliver a paper drafted by Hydro U.S. Research and Development Manager Kwabena Osei at the annual conference of the Indiana Association for Floodplain and Stormwater Management held on Sept. 12-14. The conference will take place at the Potawatomi Inn at Pokagon State Park in Angola, Ind.

Osei's paper for the Indiana conference will focus on "Storage, Control, Treatment and Reuse of Stormwater in Urban Development."

Osei also is drafting a paper to be presented at the annual conference of the Wisconsin Association for Floodplain, Stormwater, and Coastal Management on Nov. 7-9. The session will take place at the Radisson Paper Valley Hotel in Appleton, Wis. The paper will address issues corresponding to the conference's theme: "In Our Backyard – Sustainable Flood, Stormwater and Coastal Management Solutions in Wisconsin.""