Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 01/4/2019 10:13

Have to wait for the US market to open to see if we can go back towards 5000p faster NofS!

[nerdofsteel] 01/4/2019 10:03

Plenty of very positive Tweets and coverage from AACR2019 in Atlanta yesterday

[lauders] 01/4/2019 02:17

A bit more detail (3x pages) on the results NofS provided links for above:

Looks good for HCM and Savolitinib. Sad about the one death that may be related to the drug, but the benefits to those patients who did repond are good to see.

[dbadvn] 31/3/2019 17:32

I think that they are really getting their strategy sorted out. Cut the losers earlier and push hard on the winners and those with a large end market .2019 is going to be a transformative year....

[nerdofsteel] 31/3/2019 17:21

From today's AACR in Atlanta - Chi_Med has filing in its sights

hxxp://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/aacr-2019-chi-med-has-savolitinib-filing-its-sights

[nerdofsteel] 31/3/2019 16:42

Fierce Pharma update today on Savo/Tagrisso combination

hxxps://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/chi-med-astrazeneca-s-savolitinib-helps-some-tagrisso-resistant-egfr-lung-cancer-patients

[dbadvn] 28/3/2019 17:03

Waldron,

this is the Tagrisso+ Savolitinib combo ( Savannah) that they were quite excited about at the meeting I had with them.

[grupo guitarlumber] 27/3/2019 12:48

HSBC Buy - 5,940.00 Initiates/Starts

[nerdofsteel] 24/3/2019 08:52

China Biotech Commentary - Bloomberg - Sat 23rd March

[nerdofsteel] 23/3/2019 16:40

My favourite Buffett quotes, all very applicable to Chi-Med

"If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”

“Price is what you pay; Value is what you get.”

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”

“Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.”

[nerdofsteel] 22/3/2019 12:36

Great piece on Bloomberg TV by Loncar Investments CEO on China Biotech

[nerdofsteel] 22/3/2019 06:41

thanks for highlighting the AACR event, that will be critical. It's nice to see the ADR price recovering nicely, after the huge over-reaction at the end of December.

[lauders] 21/3/2019 12:32

Thanks NofS. That and the annual report released today will give us some reading. Worth sharing the bold abstract part of your link:

(Chi-Med’s)noteworthy achievements in FY18 include the landmark approval and launch of Elunate (fruquintinib) in China in 3L mCRC; the continued maturation of the tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) pipeline with multiple assets either in, or approaching, China or Global registrational trials; and significant investment in building the US infrastructure to support the Global Innovation pipeline.
2019 should bring further progress, with a steady stream of clinical catalysts.
Next up will be savolitinib NSCLC data at AACR (March 29-April 3). We continue to value Chi-Med at $33.49/ADS or £51.52/share.

[nerdofsteel] 21/3/2019 11:25

New note from Trinity Delta out today

hxxps://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/bringing-global-innovation-and-china-oncology-into-focus/

"We continue to value Chi-Med at $33.49/ADS or £51.52/share."

[shaker44] 17/3/2019 13:44

I don't see the name as a problem. Rather as an asset, given the population size and cancer incidence in China. The spat with Trump will pass, and China is hardly a pariah state with the rest of the world.

[nerdofsteel] 17/3/2019 08:41

Excellent updates DBADVN, and I look forward to further discussions on some of these points with senior Management at the AGM in April

Sportii - I dis raise the issue of the perception given by the Co. name at the last AGM but the Company didn't have a strong opinion about it at the time. I may raise it again.

[nerdofsteel] 17/3/2019 08:32

McKinsey & C. commentary or China Biotech - published yesterday, includes mention of Chi-Med

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-key-elements-chinese-biopharmas-cambrian-explosion-franck-le-deu

[lauders] 16/3/2019 04:45

"China" may be out of favour (trade disputes/tariff wars etc...) now but that is not to say it will always be the case. So on a long-term outlook it shouldn't really be an issue I would have thought! Stand to be corrected of course, for those who can see into the future.

[dbadvn] 15/3/2019 13:42

Hi sporti,
WRT how they refer to themselves I think that the name”Huchison” will always give away the company’s Chinese roots, even if they dropped the China part.

Maybe if Huchison sell down to less than 50% they would change the name entirely. I get the impression that the are extreme pragmatists and if they felt the name was holding them back they would consider changing to some Global generic,lots of examples of Chinese companies doing that. I’ll ask if I get the chance.

[sportii] 15/3/2019 10:21

Great job dbadvn. Your efforts are very much appreciated by all followers of HCM. Thank you for getting answers to my queries from Mr Cheng and Mr Lee. Its good to know that HCM has plans of extending their sales into the neighbouring asian countries and becoming a global pharma in the long term. Shaker44 had written here, last week, that Thai oncologists allowed to prescribe medications approved by Chinese regulatory agencies. A similar practice could be in use in other asian countries. If I remember correctly, our CEO had mentioned in his presentation to the (?)Royal society of Medicine, last year, that some of the therapies being developed were specific to patients of asian race. (Feel free to correct me, if wrong). Hence, my query was about extending into neighbouring asian countries. When Elunate and other drugs in the pipeline get exposures in other asian countries, HCM should highlight the same in its news releases. Any news about 'achieving sales arrangements and agreements' with other countries will surely boost the market value of HCM by good percentage as Markets see such news as very positive. After all, as private investors, we too wish to see the share price reaching the previous heights (£59 - Dec 17) again!

NOFS (Davey) has written a number of times in his messages about the impact on the market value of having 'China' in the company's title. Personally, I too feel the same. Not sure how the majority of the directors think about this. At least, outside of China, can they call themselves as just Hutchison Meditec or Hutchison HK Meditec? dbadvn, Do you think you can put forward this suggestion when you meet the directors next time?

[shaker44] 15/3/2019 08:12

Great write up dbadvn. Thank you so much. Very encouraging for the future

[lauders] 15/3/2019 04:16

Thank you very much DBADVN. Appreciate you asking my question and obtaining an answer. Also good to read all your other details. Nice about the "WILL" be good newsflow. I like that certainty and hope it comes to be fact and not overinflated optimism.

[dbadvn] 14/3/2019 22:03

Met Johnny Cheng and Mark Lee Wed am. Both very impressive and obviously on top of there game.

Lauders - "I would be interested in knowing why HCM don't look to market more drugs within China from other global pharmaceutical companies" They acknowledged that they have done this in the past and say they would do so again if the commercial deal was correct , but they want to essentially focus on there own products. The large gap in cost between local and western drugs means that the market is limited even in China apparently. Also local companies are paying far too much for marketing rights for generics. Reading between the lines it would also seem that Western companies are building out their own sales groups as the Chinese Govt loosens requirements for partners/ JV etc.

Sporti - "I wish to know if the company has any plans of expanding its commercial platform into the neighbouring countries and subsequently a Global pharma. " Yes is the short answer. In the very long term they are focused on becoming the first Chinese global Parma company. They will sell products into neighbouring countries via license agreements or agencies but are focusing first on China , USA and Europe.
During this part of the discussion the relationship with Eli Lilley came up and it was obvious that this was the source of great frustration to them for the last 2 years or so - basically they stopped just short of saying that Lilley had tried to block their route to market . New arrangement is much improved although having Lilley sell in China and HCM sell outside China seems rather perverse....Upside is much better terms and, lower cost to HCM and compensation if Lilley try to launch competitive drug in China and increased royalities. Were disappointed that market did not recognise this but realised it was probably too technical . Unless I picked this up the wrong way this is the opposite of NoS and my previous understanding - I will follow up on that. At the end of the conversation they gave the distinct impression that they will avoid partnering within China if possible....

Other points:

Dropped Epitinihib due to the success of Tagrissso but very excited by the Savo / Tagrisso combination ( Savannah ).


Initial sales of Elunate going very well - past expectations.


HMPL 689 showing increasing signs of being a success and has large market.


Near term news flow WILL be good....


CFO discussed cash position - just will not be nailed down on cash flow positive expectations but admits cash is always on his mind. Don't expect to go to market for at least two years unless for a specific and exciting reason. Ready to outright sell an asset if they needed to and it was not core. 2nd land site sale will only come after next meeting of Chinese govt ( Q2) but value of land going up all the time . Not figured into forecasts because of uncertainty of timing. Also said change of Huchison management may mean that they will consider selling some equity to avoid consolidation accounting treatment which means Huchison books a loss. Saw this as a positive move for share price if it happens ( takeover premium ).

Lots of the detail is in their presentation but overall a great meeting and gives me a lot of confidence