Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 14/9/2018 21:10

The US can do whatever it wants, but in the end if HCM produces a drug which meets a need then I can't see how cost or tariffs will stop people in the US accessing it. It is one thing to try to bolster your own steel industry, another thing altogether to deny someone access to a lifesaving drug. So while I think this may explain some of the weakness in the SP, I don't think it really affects the business at all.

[sportii] 14/9/2018 20:55

Chi-med share price has not been moving in the positive direction, even after the major news of first drug approval. Due to the unfortunate geopolitical situation, institutional buyers in the USA are not showing any interest. Hence, share price is suffering and we, long time holders, are disappointed. Unless, there are new buyers who are willing to buy, share price will not move up. That will be the case even if the company gets approval for two or more drug candidates.

Wondering why the management isn’t interested in listing on HK stock exchange.

[nerdofsteel] 13/9/2018 15:12

Reptile, good point and WCC brings back memories, I made a packet on that, together with CMSHL which also move to HK.

I did ask the Board at this years AGM about a listing on the Hang Seng and they said it was not under consideration and unlikely to be in the future. As many recent HK Biotech IPO's have been a disaster, together with the wider HK market I doubt they'd touch it at the moment, although I do agree about the strong Chinese support.

U.S. Investors are generally fickle & anti-foreign anyway. However Iam sure Donald's current China bashing stance is not helping our cause at all. Most U.S Investors, including Institutions are probably avoiding anything remotely chinese, which is a shame. However, it just presents a great buying with a long term view in my opinion.

The United States may not like the rise of China Biotech but they'd better get used to it.

[sportii] 13/9/2018 08:07

That’s an excellent point, reptile.
Listing on HK stock exchange would be extremely good for the company in view of the recent achievements. One can easily assume the sentimental value to the Chinese people about the first ever medicine developed on their soil by their researchers and scientists. Hence, there should be good response among Chinese and HK investors. Chi-med management should seriously think about this option. Many companies (including Luye are dual listed).

[reptile3] 12/9/2018 21:30

Maybe the answer is to list on the Hong Kong exchange. At least in the short term most of the increased revenues will originate from mainland China. The Chinese provided strong support for West China Cement some years ago when it left AIM for H.K. and I feel they will appreciate a highly successful home grown company..... and as you say N of S current sentiment towards China in the USA is not helpful.

[nerdofsteel] 12/9/2018 16:07

unfortunatley there's a lot of negatives in the media about the U.S - China trade war and also some commentary about the quality of China API's none of which is helpful. That said I am very surprised we have not had a better reaction by the market after last weeks announcement, which occurred whilst I was literally only a few yards away from Chi-Meds HQ in HK!

[shaker44] 08/9/2018 06:28

yes an equivalent 4.5% would be good

[sportii] 08/9/2018 06:16

Nice to see the share price ‘getting corrected’ to an extent in USA. Expecting same with AIM by next week. Good to see no bigger sell-off. Thursday’s negativity proved to be transient.

[sportii] 07/9/2018 08:34

Any early falls in the share price going to bevtransient. Expecting ‘corrections’ by this afternoon.

[reptile3] 07/9/2018 07:51

kazoom.... I should have said with reference to the drop on Nasdaq where at 8.30p.m. UK time the share price was 9.3% down on the day and therefore anticipating the drop to around £41 on AIM.

[lauders] 07/9/2018 01:53

Great news from HCM this week although the positive reaction was very short-lived! Judging from the close in the US at the end of the last session we are in for a rough day when the UK opens. If we drop down to the 4000-4100p area I may well have to average down. In the long term that should be a wise move, I hope!

[nerdofsteel] 07/9/2018 01:00

An interesting article just published by Evaluate

hxxp://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/china-comes-age?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWTJSaFltUmxZbUppTnpCaCIsInQiOiI1UG1zUE1OdHZ3S21LTEg1TG92VHpYK2xVVDhORTJmeVwvb09yY3FFTVI1K2pWU0xTRXRxTWNtMGk3dGQ5cUdjY1wvUk0rV0N3bWN1KzZLV1AxQTBsQ01remQ2WFZweDFtZThDRndnQUQ1NW5FRVJqQ0pCeldXdVB0a2hLZEl4Z0hqIn0%3D

Interesting, although I do not agree with this point:-

"Presumably if fruquintinib is left on its own outside China Chi-Med will have to seek a new partner."

It seems the author isn't aware that Ci-Med is setting up the required infrastructure and regulatory Teams to avoid the need to partner if Lilly does not take up ex-China rights.

[steeplejack] 06/9/2018 23:13

The US close at $26.55 is equivalent to £41.I keep an eye on charts but I’m no devotee.However,that chart suggests that the price would like to revisit £41.I hope I’m wrong and if it does I hope the visitation is a short one.

All things Chinese have been under pressure of late.Alibaba is down near a quarter in just a few months but this is in large part due to a falling renminbi.Quite why HCM has come in for a beating is not immediately obvious.Better to travel than arrive ahead of drug approval?Well,we hardly had a spate of outperformance ahead of yesterday’s RNS did we?I guess stocks like HCM can be vulnerable in tired markets but I’m searching for explanations.

[kazoom] 06/9/2018 21:37

Head and shoulders.... probably complete now.

I'm no expert on chart patterns at all, but isn't tjat a H&S formed, which would signal a further fall?

[reptile3] 06/9/2018 21:02

Head and shoulders.... probably complete now.

[mad foetus] 06/9/2018 19:56

Makes no sense to me at all. Annoying though

[sportii] 06/9/2018 18:59

Everything else, other than the share price, appears positive. Big drop in share price on the other side of the pond, today. Is yesterdsy’s approval news not good enough for the big buyers? Disheartened sellers, perhaps.

[steeplejack] 06/9/2018 08:10

Daily Telegraph article in today's business section discussing things."We are going to see the Chinese pharmaceutical industry really develop from an emerging market to being the most important market globally," said Mr Hogg. "It is inevitable."So when will China become home to the new Boston or London? "Give it five, 10 years and Shanghai will be up there," said Mr Hogg. "It's been a long journey for us to get where we are, but we are also excited about the things to come. This is just the start."

[nerdofsteel] 06/9/2018 04:31

I agree that anything with "China" in it is being avoided, there is a selloff at the moment in Asian markets and we have suffered but the Company's pipeline and growth path will mean its growth is assured.

We had a lull like this 10 years ago when there was 4 years of stagnation, only to then quadruple in the space of 4 years. The same will probably happen again as we get more approvals. Savolitinib is the big one of course, especially if we get BT designation in the U.S. That will be huge.

[shaker44] 06/9/2018 03:15

are you suggesting that fruq, although trialled on 3rd line and approved for that, may also be used (trialled) for 1st or 2nd line patients instead of, or alongside, chemo??
if appropriate, that would reach far more patients but surely new lengthy trials and approvals would be necessary?

[petersplants] 06/9/2018 00:56

Median os and pfs in 3rd line treatment results can be confusing. Patients in 3rd line trials are very sick people most with a few months prognosis. This result for fruquintib is comparable to an early trial result for tagrisso (aura3 I think) in lung cancer, 2nd line. Look at tagrisso now being given to treatment-naive (1st line) patients. The os and pfs is so much better for these patients because the drug has relatively little disease to deal with instead of losing half your patients before you really got started - a few months pfs means so much in 3rd line. Tagrisso looks like producing $6billion a year at its peak in all the different indications it will be used in. Fruquintinib is an important drug but its true potential is not yet understood, hense the tepid response to its approval. Having invested back in 2016 simply because of my own research into my own lymphoma led me to hcm, I realise now that this is when it all kicks off and the fun starts! This approval is pivotal. In for the long term (I hope).

[cisk] 05/9/2018 19:22

NoS, I agree, surprised (but not!) that we ended down today.

Having been with HCM since the one pound days I think the future looks rosier than ever.

Out of interest, do you live in HK or visiting? Had the pleasure of visiting there last December.

[dbadvn] 05/9/2018 17:24

Anything with the word "China" in it is being avoided...