Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 21/12/2018 08:40

Edison's sum-of-parts valuation:-

Our increased valuation of $6.4bn or £73.3/share (from $6.4bn or £71.0/share)
results from rolling forward our DCF and updating FX rates, offset by a lower net
cash position at 30 June 2018 and higher R&D in 2018 and 2019. We value the
Innovation Platform (IP) at $4,780.5m and placing the Commercial Platform’s (CP)
2018e share of net profit on a 20.4x rating gives $848.2m (945p/share).

I expect Edison to update their valuation factoring in the likelihood of Savolitinib in PRCC not proceeding.

I held Tesaro so benefited from that deal. I do think many potential U.S. Investors are put off CK Huchison's large controlling stake which prevents any form of takeover. Many also do not like the fact the Company is Chinese, albeit HK based.

[cisk] 20/12/2018 18:06

I agree with your sentiments. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs - and to build a world-class pharma there's bound to be many bumps on the road. Let's hope HCM don't have any more bumps. If the ADRs hit $20 then maybe I'll add a few more.

What do you think a sum-of-parts valuation is, excluding the drug pipeline? I know everyone talks about the drugs in development etc but also there's a significant business aside of that.

And I was also wondering, after seeing how much GSK paid for Tesaro (albeit a different company but $5bn for a one-trick pony), how much the share price would be if Hutchison Whampoa didn't own 60% of HCM. When Li Ka-shing eventually passes, even though his son is running things, maybe that 60% could be reduced...

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2018 16:44

It has in the fact that I have a substantial amount of shares (1000's) which I will HOLD but I will no longer be adding until we start getting positive pipeline news. There was also a halt in the 523 trial recently so lots of bad news. The only positive news recently has been the approval of Fruquintinib but it had little impact.

I am disappointed in these updates, I just hope we get positive updates on Epitinib and Sulfatinib, late stage assets that we wholly own.

[cisk] 20/12/2018 15:45

Many thanks NofS. Has this in any way shaken your faith in the company? I’ve held since the sub £2 days - although wish I had my original stake - it just seems there’s been quite a bit of disappointing news lately...

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2018 15:38

MES implications on SAVOIR study:
 Likelihood of SAVOIR success in first-line MET positive PRCC is now considered as low given outcome of MES;
 Rebalancing SAVOIR to second-line and above patients is operationally not practical given minimal use of Sutent® beyond first-line as well as lower than expected incidence of MET positive patients; and
 The outcome of a molecular epidemiology study, along with recent novel therapy approvals, is leading to a change in savolitinib kidney cancer strategy.

As a result, the savolitinib registration strategy for PRCC is being reassessed, to take into account these findings as well as the rapidly changing RCC treatment landscape. Enrollment in the SAVOIR study has been suspended.

Basically this specific trial is suspended because it appears it's just not worth it any more

Some of the other parts are positive however

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2018 11:39

I knew we had recently been added to the MSCI China Index but on Dec 24th we are also being added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index, which should prompt some funds to start buying



Thanks to miti on LSE for pointing that out

[lauders] 20/12/2018 10:15

Some disappointing news coming from HCM recently. All been followed by big drops. Last time we recovered quite nicely. Now we shall have to see what happens over the next few weeks. We have the US reaction to come later so we may end down even further by the time they close. If it is a bad day there again we may get to near 4000p at this rate. Holding long term can be a real roller-coaster!

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2018 09:18

Terrible news on Savolitinib in PRCC, although the huge opportunity is in NSCLC. A full assessment of today's updates will take some time but the market seemed to decide within seconds, wiping £500m off the market cap at one point!

[mad foetus] 20/12/2018 07:46

Hmm, I think the financial update is a bit of a kick in the balls. Losses up due to increased R&D. Not what the market wants to hear.

[lauders] 20/12/2018 01:05

The number of trading days (read RNS release days) is reducing as the hours pass so if the news is coming this year that NofS refers to above it has to be soon! Interesting that the media are picking up on the speed at which regulatory approvals are now being granted in China. HCM gets a mention in this piece:

In April, it approved in nine days Merck & Co.’s HPV vaccine, Gardasil 9, which has been in use worldwide since 2014. A few months later, it gave the green light to Hutchison China MediTech Ltd.’s colorectal cancer capsules, fruquintinib, marking the first time a homegrown medication was approved in China ahead of the U.S. and Europe.

[nerdofsteel] 13/12/2018 14:13

agreed Lauders, there was also a dosing issue recently with 523 but that was not reported presumably because it's midway through. We certainly need progress now as approval of the Fruquintinib NDA in September resulted in no reaction from the market.

[lauders] 13/12/2018 12:38

Just hoping one or both are not as disappointing as the FALUCA results NofS. That would be a big disappointment and we would no doubt be knocked back quite a bit.

[nerdofsteel] 13/12/2018 11:38

The big one is Savolitinib, especially these.........

Initiate global study of savolitinib/ Tagrisso® combo in 2L/3L NSCLC post Tagrisso® failure; AZ presents data on c-Met resistance; regulatory dialogue;

Molecular epidemiology study (n>200) in PRCC [3] – possibly BTD enabling.

We can expect news on both of these studies in the next 2 weeks ;o-)

[nhb001] 13/12/2018 08:12

Still at a £1+ discount to the US share price.

[mad foetus] 13/12/2018 07:21

chartwise, looks like this is making a nice bowl

[lauders] 13/12/2018 01:56

Hoping for a great day here when the UK market opens for business. Up around 9% in the USA at close of play yesterday and if HCM happen to release a positive Thursday RNS it could really be a great day!

[nerdofsteel] 06/12/2018 10:00

This is probably not helping at the moment - significant price pressure in Chian on drugs, mainly generics, but the entire sector is being hit. U.S Investor
sentiment against China Co's also likely to increase as the CFO of Huawei has just been arrested in Canada and the U.S request extradition.

[nerdofsteel] 05/12/2018 10:39

Good point on NASDAQ Sportii, thanks for that information

[sportii] 05/12/2018 09:06

As long as the share price stays above 50 GBP, it shouldn’t be matter of concern. We have seen on a number of times share price bouncing back. (Not sure it would happen today, as Nasdaq closed today in respect of president Bush?)

Recent announcement of multiple collaborations is indeed quite remarkable. Out of curiosity, I checked INNOVENT side of news. I found “global” term very interesting. ‘Innovent Announces Global Collaboration with Hutchison MediPharma to Evaluate Combination of Sintilimab and Fruquintinib in Solid Tumors’
GLA.

[nerdofsteel] 05/12/2018 08:08

True! Yesterday was carnage in U.S markets, especially the Pharma and Biotech sectors so his chart and the golden cross technicals wouldn't have worked. It'll probably bounce today!

[samsj] 04/12/2018 16:40

That Andreas guy on stocktwits - he's a curse. He goes short and we rally, now he's long and we drop over 5%. I think he did the same on Beigene!?

[lauders] 04/12/2018 00:45

Thanks for the link NofS. I guess you will have more funds to use to get you nearer to your 20,000 holding now that an offer has been made for TSRO.

With luck the "talent, energy, and hunger" mentioned in this piece from your link will pay-off handsomely in a few years:

While Chi-Med began by building a team of returnees, it has in turn begun to train a pool of local talent. Today, 80 percent of its workers are locally educated. “[Companies] need to tap into the deep reservoir of intellect that exists here,” said CEO Hogg. “China is one of the most enterprising business environments that you’re going to come across. There’s a lot of talent, energy, and hunger.”

[nerdofsteel] 03/12/2018 17:21

Nice offer from Glaxo for my TSRO stock!

[nerdofsteel] 03/12/2018 17:21

Nice article from today's Statnews on China's Pharma valley which includes comments from Chi-Med's CEO

hxxps://www.statnews.com/2018/12/03/pharma-valley-chinas-kendall-square/