Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 04/6/2018 13:38

You could say that gswredland:

Don't think anything has been sold other than when it went above 10% of portfolio value and then it had to be for balancing. Think that is correct.

What's up with today's share price action? Good news and negative. Should have released it as an RNS and not RNSNON! Perhaps the US market will appreciate it?

[gswredland] 04/6/2018 08:40

Hi guys
So Mark Slater is big here?

[nerdofsteel] 03/6/2018 09:53

great post thanks Lauders

If I can also add, when comparing other stocks, it is worth noting companies on NASDAQ such as:-

Nektar - up 5 fold in a year
Beigene - up 5 fold in a year
HCM - up 1.33 fold in a year

Generally some Analysts have had the view this Co. is over-valued, which it may be based on pure fundamentals, but not when you compare it to Co's like Nektar, Beigene, Genmab & Galapagos

[lauders] 03/6/2018 03:03

Some interesting stats here:



Need to remove the period between the first and second "i" to make the link work! Included in the round-up of companies is this VERY brief excerpt on HCM:

Hutchison China Meditech (HCM) has done badly during 2018 but the long-term performance is impressive.

Interesting to see the 5-year table in the article. VCP has increased 2100% over 5 years while HCM "only" 770% in comparison. Still a way to go to catch-up with VCP and also BUR! IGR is a bit nearer.

[nerdofsteel] 01/6/2018 08:07

One of the key factors in Edison's new valuation is the fact that they now conclude HCM's wholly owned drug candidates will not require partners, presumably driven by the Co's decision to setup a Regulatory Office in the U.S.

[nerdofsteel] 01/6/2018 07:59

"Lauders25 May '18 - 13:23 - 1457 of 1473"
No Lilly deal???

Let's hope so!

Now we have a Regulatory Office in the U.S. it's almost certainly better for us if they do not exercise their final option to ex China rights. We don't need their financial help and probably do not need their help in dealing with the FDA.

100Laila - THANKS for the alert re Edison, this new note is long overdue :o-)

[nerdofsteel] 01/6/2018 07:55

"Someone must be overlooking HCM if the sector is "red hot"

Agreed, and it's happened before many times. If you ask certain large holders including insiders and Mark Slater they will tell you why they will not sell and how the Co. is overlooked

This will change with our first NDA, and also if we and AZ get BT designation for Savolitinib in the U.S

In the meantime what a great opportunity to build a stake!

[carcosa] 01/6/2018 06:37

"...We have extensively reviewed our financial forecasts and increase our valuation to £71.0/share"

Well, that's some increase in their valuation! Seems to be driven by a change in the economic terms for wholly owned assets (fruquintinib ex-China, and globally for sulfatinib, epitinib, theliatinib. HMPL-523) from the prior flat 30% royalty rate on sales assumption to full value retained by HCM

More info here:

[dbadvn] 31/5/2018 16:17

Its like a dam waiting to burst. Its going to happen but when..? Probably first piece of commercial news.

In the meantime I am building a ( large ) position.

[100laila] 31/5/2018 15:59

New Edison note out (free)

Extract

Key near-term value drivers include newsflow from partnered assets savolitinib (AZN globally) and fruquintinib (LLY in China). By year end, we anticipate the China FDA to approve fruquintinib (3L CRC). The molecular epidemiology study (MES) data on savolitinib in PRCC could support a US NDA submission (possible breakthrough therapy designation, BTD). Both products have blockbuster potential; as combination therapies in cancer drive overall uptake of targeted therapies. Beyond this we expect progression in Hutchison China MediTech’s (HCM) wholly owned late stage oncology assets to reach value inflection points over the next few years. We have extensively reviewed our financial forecasts and increase our valuation to £71.0/share or $6.4bn.

[lauders] 30/5/2018 12:22

Someone should tell NASDAQ that NofS! We have taken a pounding over the last three trading days and not quite sure. Someone must be overlooking HCM if the sector is "red hot". If there is any good news looming the reaction should be very strongly northwards. I would rather been in than out at the moment. If I had just sold at nearly 5000p and bought back yesterday it would have been perfect. LOL!

[nerdofsteel] 30/5/2018 10:52

"China's Drugmaker Shares Are Red Hot"

[reptile3] 29/5/2018 18:06

The previous low on 28th March was $28.87 and today's intra-day low of $28.76 could indicate the base from which recovery will flow. I aim to buy a few first thing in the morning.

[nimrod22] 29/5/2018 16:33

4 times as many buys than sells today. The share price has just dropped in to the RSI oversold range, so will probably head back up again in a few days time. A good buying in point for anybody wishing to enter.

[mad foetus] 29/5/2018 16:17

Could do with that newsflow starting, it has been a bad few days.

[nerdofsteel] 26/5/2018 15:51

indeed, thanks for posting Luaders.

For any newer Holders here, eg less than 10 years it is worth looking back at the charts. We have had many periods during that time when the share price has retreated or remained level only to then surge ahead. The valuation of the Company seems to stay static, followed by huge growth periods that are often over-extended, followed by a smaller pullback.

In my view we are experiencing one of those pullbacks now, which will be followed by another significant growth period, driven by a lot of material news including our first NDA approval

[mad foetus] 25/5/2018 21:09

We just need news to be honest. There is a lot expected this year and very little to date.

[gswredland] 25/5/2018 19:27

Chart not looking good though
Return to 4000?

[reptile3] 25/5/2018 16:26

The previous low was around $28.87 ($30.04 at the moment) so hopefully that will provide a base for recovery.

[nerdofsteel] 25/5/2018 13:59

oh I forgot to say, I continue to buy, as I have done again today

[nerdofsteel] 25/5/2018 13:55

agreed Lauders, on the face of it there is no shortage, however some large buyers want very very large quantities and are therefore not prepared to buy on the open market using multiple trades. when you consider some of the very large holders are approached it explains there are some who want a lot of shares.

[lauders] 25/5/2018 13:23

You wouldn't think that is a shortage of shares or any demand out there based on today's action. People getting impatient for news or hearing something in advance about no agreement with Lilly?

[kikkeridirect] 25/5/2018 12:10

I am holding as no obvious reason for the fall. Trade talks with China driving so down ?