Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 25/3/2018 00:07

Investors Chronicle

Gateley, the UK’s first listed law firm, is delivering on its promises of organic growth (168p). With a plethora of near-term catalysts and a solid long-term outlook, Hutchison China Meditech is a rarity in the biopharma world (5,200p). Take profits in Aim-listed oil and gas company President Energy, which has performed well over the past year (12p).

Not new but worth repeating the "near-term catalysts" part :-) HCM can go up just as fast as it can come down!

[nerdofsteel] 24/3/2018 11:43

vicsonvic - Gilead are developing GS-9876 Syk Inhibitor but it appears their indication is Sjogren's (which I happen to suffer from) and the huge RA market.

They appear to be ahead ahead of us (Phase 2), so could be First-in-Class but even if they are we may be Best-in-Class....time will tell

Chi-Med have stated the RA market is expected to be a $45 billion p.a. by 2020 with B-cell pathway; anti-TNF; & JAK the main focus.

[mad foetus] 24/3/2018 06:12

I'm not sure trade wars will make any difference. If HCM comes up with drugs that are better than those available in the US, I cannot see the US not allowing them in. And indeed, if the US focus on ensuring that China stop copying IP, that could have hidden benefits for us. I think the main cause is people locking in profits after a good run and a sense that news isn't imminent and there is no reason for the price to rise without it.

[lauders] 24/3/2018 04:09

From a link on the pharmacube page highlighted above:

Q. Is that in part a statement about the demographics of China and the urgency of solutions?

A. All of the Chinese healthcare industry is going to grow because of the demographics. You can see all the money from real estate and other industries now coming into healthcare industry. There is a window for investors and businesses, as this is a necessity for China. This is the fastest growing industry in China. Besides areas like cancer and cardiovascular, there will areas such as long-term management and medical foods. There will be more management of diabetes on a long-term basis, as well as diagnostics.

[lauders] 24/3/2018 00:43

A new Chinese pharma resource:

Pharmcube is a China-based data & media company aiming at unearthing the trends in Chinese pharmaceutical industry.

Shame the website doesn't seem to have an English option.

As you say steeplejack HCM is being hit because it is clearly Chinese and the trade war is in everyone's mind. Might go lower still and I was feeling so good about my recent buy. Can get cheaper now. Still watching but if goes much lower may well top-up!

[steeplejack] 23/3/2018 16:09

I fear this stock is suffering because of trade war concerns,collateral damage.

[vicsonvic] 23/3/2018 10:17

Nerd, could you please share your comment "..set back... ahead of Gilead" - what is it and where I can read more about this. Thanks

[nerdofsteel] 22/3/2018 09:45

can't say I blame them, I continue to buy as I have been for 10 years £££;£££££

[thornyone] 21/3/2018 09:58

No smoke without a fire :-)

[mad foetus] 21/3/2018 09:29

There is another director buy. Deja vu!

[nerdofsteel] 21/3/2018 08:52

Agreed, that was a major setback, I just hope we are still leading or at least not too far behind Gilead with their development. Getting a First-in-Class to market will be very material.

[thornyone] 20/3/2018 14:52

Yep. A pity the dosages were wrong though. Would have saved a couple of years.

[nerdofsteel] 20/3/2018 13:52

Interesting article which discusses the current and future value creation being seen by certain Immunokinase Drug Candidates including SYK.



It seems Syk is probably one of the highest value targets, especially in the context there are only 3 drugs being developed for this candidate and we are probably one of the leaders.

523 could be a very very valuable asset in the medium to long term, particularly as it moves through Phase 2 in the next 2 or 3 years.

[lauders] 20/3/2018 00:25

Closed up in the US on a down day so perhaps more director buys as you say MF or at least some US investors thinking the stated director buy is worth following ;-)

[mad foetus] 19/3/2018 09:12

There is the first director buy, wonder if we will get a slew of them now.

[nerdofsteel] 17/3/2018 16:55

Great article Lauders thanks for highlighting it

[lauders] 17/3/2018 04:46

This article from NofS's twitter link is also very interesting and not new to investors here:

China’s pharmaceutical industry is ripe for this kind of investment. It is a high-technology field that requires massive amounts of research and development, with such high investment costs that most Chinese companies are simply priced out. It is also a growing field in China. The Chinese population is aging and increasingly ill, two factors that have made China the world’s second largest pharmaceutical market. Being able to create national heavyweight companies that can dominate the Chinese market, compete and beat foreign competitors, and begin to take market share away from those foreign competitors’ home markets checks all the boxes of the “Made in China” plan.

The part I emboldened is good for HCM and the pharma industry but not good for the citizens of course. Can't change the aging part though!

This part can't be bad either re: HCM's awaited approval: The government is also moving to more quickly approve new drugs for the market.

[nerdofsteel] 16/3/2018 09:04

Happy for the price to drift lower, I continue to buy

[dons] 16/3/2018 07:58

Hcm tipped as a buy in today's investors chronicle

[dbadvn] 15/3/2018 16:43

Had a very interesting meeting with the CFO .

They are certainly sticking to plan and gearing up for European/US sales independently of whatever happens with Lilley etc. Making all the right noises on Clinical/ Sales teams/ Branding/ Competition and realistic on timescale.

Not defending the fact that the recent cash raise was basically opportunistic use of perfect market conditions . Looking to be cash flow positive within 5 years ( doe not exclude more cash raising depending on opportunities).

The positive "elephant in the room" is the $50bn potential of HMPL 523 in the immunology market. Although still at the early stages HCM seem to have the lead here and only Gilead as competition.

Short term lack of news flow may see the share price drift but medium and long term potential probabilities of success are increasing . At some point the US market will start to valur HCM in the same way as the US Biotechs ( less the takeover premium perhaps ) .At that point the share price will react strongly . When that happens is anyones guess so I for one am staying invested long term