hxxps://www.takeda.com/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/ |
Takeda will reports its Q1 numbers before HCM issues its H1 report….
If the HK market moves significantly look at the Takeda results. |
 As with all things M&A for HCM, it will come down to CKHH.
China wants its raise its markets by encouraging firms to be more commercially oriented and provide value to owners…..
Beigene is probably the most successful of its younger biotechs but is still small compared to big pharma.
I expect there will be a wave of consolidation M&A within the chinese biotechs, and HCM will participate…
The economics would appear compelling…230;.if you merged HCM with any of Junshi, Innovent, Beigene there would be significant operational overlaps across the whole develop, register, manufacture and sales processes as well as competing products that can be rationalised. In addition the companies have raised funds some of which is looking like excess capital which can be paid out in merger / dividends.
The big news tomorrow will be Takeda’s sales in the US……they should have grown sales from the $50m in Q1 but by how much? Closer to $80m and it will look like the patient population is growing and could be much higher than the $200m pa currently penciled in by analysts.
The rest of the year will be dominated by:
1 news of regulatory approvals with three reviews ongoing in China and one in Japan.
2 early sales in Europe by Takeda
3 AZ submitting Savolitinib for approval in the US.
4 Possible partner for Sovlep. |
Also note the emphasis on the market value up front and highly visible.
Something has changed at HCM…..finally realising that it’s now or never , no more free money from the market.
Upcoming results are critical. If they are excellent (not just good) they go onwards and upwards. If they are not excellent then they become a prime takeover candidate and must “dress themselves up” for that. |
Results on Wednesday 31st.
Also good to see this presentation from 9th July on HCM's website which I have only just noticed now: |
It seems that Goldman is in at CKHH and its reviews are proving a little leaky,
Two stories in two days about the European Three mobile telecoms businesses and a second about CK Infrastructure.
When they get to HCM it will be no surprise if they suggest M&A with other China biotech (I would not expect HCM to be the buyer as that would not generate immediate gains for CKHH). They should be having these discussions about reaising SH value from time to time.
IMO CKHH has incubated HCM and may decide it does not have the resources/appetite to take it much further or the ability as a Board to oversee this specialist investment and therefore seeks to dilute its ownership.
If they can get a proposal above hk$50 they will be obliged to seriously consider it. CK deals have often involved a mix of cash and listed shares followed by sell downs (eg recent mobile mast deal in Europe).
No certainty of a deal emerging, but I feel there is change coming at CKHH and HCM may not be untouched by it. |
No doubt correct DBADVN. If there was a fingers crossed emojie I would have clicked it! Let's hope we see more positivity here going forwards. |
All about the money now. Once that star ts coming in , politics will take second place. |
The company keeps advancing on its agenda of being consistently profitable in 2025 and beyond.With three priority reviews in China and a fourth nearly complete there are prospects of strong sales growth in China next year (with a 60-80% gross margin and an increased royalty contribution from Takeda as they mature the US sales and develop EU, Japan and additional RoW markets.
It looks likely they will achieve their aims…..icing on the cake will be a global partner for Sovlep. |
+7.14%, as I type.
f |
Not today it would seem! Disappointing to say the least. |
Some more good news: Thursday, July 4, 2024 - HUTCHMED Announces NDA Acceptance in China for Tazemetostat for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Follicular Lymphoma with Priority Review Status
One day the market may start to like the news-flow from HCM! |
That was yesterday danmart2, although you wouldn't think it from the price reaction. Perhaps there will be a delayed reaction later this week! Given that HCM are on 3x different exchanges you would struggle to wonder why though! |
EU approval granted
RNS |
As I said before - good entry point .
Quick approval by Europe via Takeda really highlights the politicisation of the US drug approval system. Patients are dying because of their hypocrisy . Might be excusable if there was a US alternative available . They have completely lost their way. Shameful really. |
Am in at that.
f |
That's quite an rns. |
its all about the money ( = sales ) from here on in .... |
Deadly dull here and drifting. Good we may be about to break 300p again but we need some decent news to get things going. Never seems to arrive and if something good appears is sold off. Come on HCM give us something to cheer about please! |
The company will need to think about how it deploys excess capital…..It looks likely they already have a buffer of ~US$200-300m in excess cash.
A dividend of 1HKD/10p would cost about HKD850m / £85m US$110m and is likely affordable.
However their main shareholders may not be than interested in a cash return and prefer buy backs. Management will also be able to fund M&A (I include in-licensing) to expand the business and potentially take on debt to fund itself.
Lots of good problems for management to ponder. |
Thanks 1jat. The Takeda presentation (link provided over on LSE BB) is good to check out as well. Fruzaqla and its progress is shown in various slides.
One day (2027?) we may be looking at dividends here too. Doubt I will have the stamina to hold all my current shares until then, but should be holding some. |
Lauders
The sales report from Takeda was IMO a very positive one. They reported FY sales of 10.1bn JPY which is approx $65m, with 15m in 2023, that means Pts signed up for $50m in Q1.
They are still building the book and have not reached a steady state when new patients are matched by patients coming off the medication.
The $50m is approximately adding a net $5m of new sales each month which adds $30m to revenue each quarter in the short term and then the increment will start to tail off as equilibrium is reached.
The maths suggests a likely sales trajectory in the US for 2024 Q/ly sales of
50
80
110
140 which totals $380m.
We can watch that develop with the HY results at the end of July, but I would be hopeful that Takeda generates $350m of US revenue this year which will bring HCM $50 of royalty payments.
EU approval should come in July with sales in the higher volume but maybe price limited markets following…..THere are more govt pricing reviews before full volume can be reached in most countries so I expect it will take 2 years before we see a full European sales picture emerge. The market is 3x, but I would expect a price cut (25%?), so Takeda may be able to push EU sales to $700m in due course
Japan approval around the end of the year with sales starting in 2025. Other markets to follow using these approvals as a base.
I can see HCM getting $150-200m in royalty payments in 2026 which will last for a few years. |
Wonder why the rise today? Could it be Takeda related? Sales of Fruzaqla.
Doubt it is related to the news yesterday: Hong Kong, Shanghai & Florham Park, NJ - Wednesday, May 8, 2024: HUTCHMED (China) Limited ("HUTCHMED" or the "Company") (Nasdaq/AIM: HCM, HKEX: 13) today announces that Dr Renu Bhatia is appointed as an Independent Non-executive Director and a member of Technical Committee of the Company with effect from May 13, 2024.
Interesting to see she is the chairman of the Listing Committee of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited though. |
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