Waldron - what is your view on the RNS?
From my perspective it is disappointing, but the problem with OS was in plain sight. I am disappointed that it has been a lost 18m while waiting for a negative view from the regulator.
What this does call into question is management’s judgement…..they were talking this up at the HY results but the issues must have been known and the prospects worsening.
Hopefully there will be good news from Japan shortly and positive news from the outstanding China regulatory submissions…..
From a management credibility perspective it is important that they get the ITP and EMC approvals and the extension to Savolitinib. |
Next news is likely to be approval of Fruq for Gastric cancer and in Japan(Q3 was suggested for both events), then Takeda sales update at the end of October (for their HY to end September).
It remains to be seen if Hutchmed will provide a sales update thereafter….. |
Good to see that HCM stood its ground yesterday and did not buckle. Very surprised really! Now good to see strength on the general recovery that appears to be taking place. |
Well the markets were not that impressed by the HY results.
It may take some time for the analysts to update their forecasts, although the only significantly new information yesterday was the Takeda sales which I consider to be at the top of expectations, certainly Cavendish will be raising their forecast from $200m to somewhere north of $300m.
Yesterday’s up before results and todays slight down were not dissimilar to other companies not reporting results.
The most significant slide in the deck is now the roadmap with the expected submission and approval/launches mapped onto it.
CEO saying that profitability point will likely be reached in mid 2025 ahead of plan should also be a boost….. |
Takeda sales for Apr-Jun were 11.9bn Yen. This is nearly $80m USD.
The growing sales trend in the US shows little sign of slowing (but it will).
2024 sales are going to exceed $300m….cant predict the peak US sales yet but 350-400m looking likely for 2025.
A good start to the day |
hxxps://www.takeda.com/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/ |
Takeda will reports its Q1 numbers before HCM issues its H1 report….
If the HK market moves significantly look at the Takeda results. |
 As with all things M&A for HCM, it will come down to CKHH.
China wants its raise its markets by encouraging firms to be more commercially oriented and provide value to owners…..
Beigene is probably the most successful of its younger biotechs but is still small compared to big pharma.
I expect there will be a wave of consolidation M&A within the chinese biotechs, and HCM will participate…
The economics would appear compelling…230;.if you merged HCM with any of Junshi, Innovent, Beigene there would be significant operational overlaps across the whole develop, register, manufacture and sales processes as well as competing products that can be rationalised. In addition the companies have raised funds some of which is looking like excess capital which can be paid out in merger / dividends.
The big news tomorrow will be Takeda’s sales in the US……they should have grown sales from the $50m in Q1 but by how much? Closer to $80m and it will look like the patient population is growing and could be much higher than the $200m pa currently penciled in by analysts.
The rest of the year will be dominated by:
1 news of regulatory approvals with three reviews ongoing in China and one in Japan.
2 early sales in Europe by Takeda
3 AZ submitting Savolitinib for approval in the US.
4 Possible partner for Sovlep. |
Also note the emphasis on the market value up front and highly visible.
Something has changed at HCM…..finally realising that it’s now or never , no more free money from the market.
Upcoming results are critical. If they are excellent (not just good) they go onwards and upwards. If they are not excellent then they become a prime takeover candidate and must “dress themselves up” for that. |
Results on Wednesday 31st.
Also good to see this presentation from 9th July on HCM's website which I have only just noticed now: |
It seems that Goldman is in at CKHH and its reviews are proving a little leaky,
Two stories in two days about the European Three mobile telecoms businesses and a second about CK Infrastructure.
When they get to HCM it will be no surprise if they suggest M&A with other China biotech (I would not expect HCM to be the buyer as that would not generate immediate gains for CKHH). They should be having these discussions about reaising SH value from time to time.
IMO CKHH has incubated HCM and may decide it does not have the resources/appetite to take it much further or the ability as a Board to oversee this specialist investment and therefore seeks to dilute its ownership.
If they can get a proposal above hk$50 they will be obliged to seriously consider it. CK deals have often involved a mix of cash and listed shares followed by sell downs (eg recent mobile mast deal in Europe).
No certainty of a deal emerging, but I feel there is change coming at CKHH and HCM may not be untouched by it. |
No doubt correct DBADVN. If there was a fingers crossed emojie I would have clicked it! Let's hope we see more positivity here going forwards. |
All about the money now. Once that star ts coming in , politics will take second place. |
The company keeps advancing on its agenda of being consistently profitable in 2025 and beyond.With three priority reviews in China and a fourth nearly complete there are prospects of strong sales growth in China next year (with a 60-80% gross margin and an increased royalty contribution from Takeda as they mature the US sales and develop EU, Japan and additional RoW markets.
It looks likely they will achieve their aims…..icing on the cake will be a global partner for Sovlep. |
+7.14%, as I type.
f |
Not today it would seem! Disappointing to say the least. |
Some more good news: Thursday, July 4, 2024 - HUTCHMED Announces NDA Acceptance in China for Tazemetostat for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Follicular Lymphoma with Priority Review Status
One day the market may start to like the news-flow from HCM! |
That was yesterday danmart2, although you wouldn't think it from the price reaction. Perhaps there will be a delayed reaction later this week! Given that HCM are on 3x different exchanges you would struggle to wonder why though! |
EU approval granted
RNS |
As I said before - good entry point .
Quick approval by Europe via Takeda really highlights the politicisation of the US drug approval system. Patients are dying because of their hypocrisy . Might be excusable if there was a US alternative available . They have completely lost their way. Shameful really. |
Am in at that.
f |
That's quite an rns. |
its all about the money ( = sales ) from here on in .... |
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