CMB Intl yesterday
Maintain BUY. We revised our DCF-based TP from HK$73.25 to HK$51.15
based on a 14-year DCF valuation (WACC: 10.47%, terminal growth rate: 3%) |
Deutsche has downgraded today from buy to hold and cut price target from $37 to $20.Bit behind the curve chaps! |
 Ever since the US government has taken an anti-China stance, including blacklisting Chinese companies of all kinds some of which have nothing to do with the military or advanced technology, the collective value of US listed Chinese companies has declined significantly. The US is not a free society if I may say so. It is free only if you obey their order and be subservient. It has no hesitation to sanction its allies either and carries out spying activities on its friends and foes alike.
Unfortunately in a capitalist society in the present time the US is the largest market (in terms of monetary value) for pharmaceutical companies. HCM may serve its shareholders better if it operates completely outside the US in the long term.
Digressing a little, HSBC originated in China and Hong Kong and has always made most of its profits in those geographical areas. The former Board decided to take over Midland Bank and in order to satisfy British regulatory requirements it decided to have London as its headquarter and had a dual London listing.
My experience of British companies is that they all wanted to enter into the US markets and virtually all of them have failed with substantial losses (M&S, Midland Bank, Tesco just to name a few). |
courtesy of tacly on LSE
See latest analyst report from CMB International dated 4 May 2022 |
Penny share |
we need the EMA to approve Surufatinib, if they don't this is dead despote the fact the SHPL jv is worth $1bn and the fact annual drug sales in China alone will be almost $200m this year |
Yes, I've been out of HCM for years, but it does seem that the FDA is increasingly politicised and I doubt a US company with this treatment would have had the same result. Good luck holders, always had a soft spot for HCM but sad to see CH go. |
hardly a chinese ripoff, currently providing 3 world besting best in class oncology drugs to patients across china. This is a proper company with real assets and a massive late stage pipeline but its valuation has been decimated by HFCAA and delayed approval of its first drug outside China. not exactly a rip off. |
yup another Chinese rip off, should never have been allowed to list in London in the first place ! |
timbeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr |
it's collapsing anyway, there will be no company left at this rate. Now lower than the 2016 IPO price despite massively larger pipeline and 3 drugs on the market. Even if this company never sold a drug outside of China it will become profitable and have billions in revs by 2025/2026
If the EMA follow the FDA and do not approve we are going to be completely decimated |
Trouble is,when a company goes private,the price is invariably pushed lower so the private equity players can buy the company for a song.Its a dirty business. |
This company should be taken private |
I suspect the company was informed weeks or months ago they needed a US trial but left the bad news until receipt of the CRL. Yet again Investors have been hung out to dry by the company. |
agree DBADVN, patients do not come first with the current FDA |
I don't know who this Matt character is but it isn't me. |
Oh Matt(steeplejack), aren't you the clever one? |
A decision which in my mind greatly tarnishes the reputation of the FDA. If they can be influenced one way what’s next, although I suppose we have already seen that with the treatment of the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine vs Pfizer. If their decisions are seen to be so much politically and economically driven , covered by a tissue of excuses , their clinical judgement must certainly be called in to question and the whole effectiveness of the regime starts to fail.
From the patient / medical viewpoint they have completely lost their way - patients come a long way Down the list of priorities for this FDA.
Shamefull. |
Oh well,have a relatively small holding compared with a few months back.Glad i bit the bullet and got shot of them towards end of last financial year.A useful tax loss :) |
Very disappointing news…for the company and potential patients.
It seems there has been a shift in policy since the FDA accepted the bridging study approach as appropriate…..we should note this is not the approach being followed for fruquintinib where full multicentre studies and Japan specific studies are being performed.
I suppose this is a three year delay….one to setup the new trial, one to submit the application and one to approve it….
What will the EMA do? I doubt they will accept without their own trial? |
Surufatinib not approved
In a May 2020 pre-NDA meeting, HUTCHMED reached an agreement with the FDA that the two positive Phase III studies of surufatinib in patients with pNETs and epNETs in China, along with the bridging trial in the U.S. could form the basis to support a U.S. NDA submission.
You would have thought the FDA would have said a year ago they needed a U.S. study when they accepted the bridging study....why wait until now or are they just playing games because Hutchmed is chinese? What are Hutchmed going to do with the sizeable sales and marketing Team in Floreham Park. They effectively have no work to do for the forseable future. |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
