Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 15:30

7,400,000 BBLS

[zztop] 09/3/2017 15:24

gibso, Ok I give up...how many?

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 14:55

It's amazing this is for Halifax Lancaster if connected , and recoverable !!!

[buffythebuffoon] 09/3/2017 14:50

Dunno, can't read it.

How many?

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 14:49

Re WH Ireland article , every extra meter of depth below 1620m equates to ,,, how many BBLS !!!

[davidblack] 09/3/2017 14:35

The Chinese consumption of oil is set to rise steadily as the progressively clamp down on high surphur dirty coal which is poisoning the whole of the east coast of China. So growth may be officially down to 6.5% (make that 4% in the real world) but oil should not be affected.

The better benchmark of the Chinese industrial economy is copper imports which are running at record levels.

I just get the feeling HUR is a bit unloved this week?

[zztop] 09/3/2017 14:31

do oil shares go up before good news? the ones i've had seem to drop..

[rayrac] 09/3/2017 14:29

Well it must be news from the rig that we are not privy to see. Or the mm's are doing their best to shake some shares out?

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 13:43

To a great extent POO realtime is slightly irrelevant, however it's a risk that is priced in .
The Financial markets aren't as willing to provide funds without thus risk being catered for .

The beauty and attraction of our asset is the $32 break even price which can and only will reduce with both fine tuning and increase in production .

I'm keeping my powder dry just in case that there is another OO thrown our way , and the better informed ie IIs have taken the Lions Share

[jacks13] 09/3/2017 13:28

This is what Richard Hulf, manager of the Artemis Global Energy Fund had to say just after last Autumn's Opec deal:



Also from the fund manager's update:

'The energy sector had a subdued start to the year. This is typical for January, when global refineries reconfigure and crude demand tends to dip. In addition, there was a ‘post truth’ story circulating that production in the US would ramp up following Opec’s cuts. This will not be the case: the US is struggling to make up for two years of under-investment and shale production is too slow to respond to current drilling. Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden, agrees. As he put in a recent conversation with us: “US shale may meet demand growth but it cannot cover supply shrinkage as well”. We suspect politics are playing a part here. Let’s just stick to the facts. Oil prices look underpinned in 2017 but there are some unknowns in 2018.'

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/3/2017 13:22

Yes, oil production! Chinese imports of crude are running at record levels, up around US import levels!!

[rayrac] 09/3/2017 13:14

Oil production you mean tgg? If it is rising industrial production in the US you mean? Then that would help our cause. But the Chinese economy is another problem...less demand for oil from that source?

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the wise guys look miles ahead and bet on what they feel is on the horizon.

There was talk somewhere, that oil could be heading for $30 bll !

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/3/2017 12:58

Rayrac, I was slightly surprised at yesterday's dip in the OP.....US oil inventory was off a touch, presumably the market's a bit excited about rising US production...

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 12:55

To me , the glass is very half full , since the Lancaster Well news a few years ago then the doldrums of the following 2 years or so I like many others have massively accumulated.
At £1.00 I'm mortgage free living in a nice high ceiling Georgian Terrace with an XF ( still having to work but my job keeps me fit )

At £1.50 it's the above with a 911 for the weekend plus a property to rent out .

At £2.00 it's the above with a liver transplant pencilled in ,

However I digress when it gets to those lofty prices whom will stay for longer

[rayrac] 09/3/2017 12:42

The price of Brent oil is falling dramatically! That's the main problem here and elsewhere. OPEC have lost their grip on the market, due to in some small measure to lithium and to a greater extent, the US fracking industry!

Heads down...

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 12:37

To be honest Offshore Drilling if you could get the mindset was easy , just literally a case of wear this , be here do this till someone takes over , my apprenticeship of sorts as a Roughneck was under Canadian tutorledge on Semis and Jack Ups .
Offshore Drilling is identical to forces mentality , which I had prior experience.

It's now gone a bit sissy and automated derricks , pipe spinners and iron roughneck have taken over ( it sensitises the work force from danger , and decision making )

I've worked manual derricks and went down 21ft droppers Scaffolding ( which years ago everyone led by example .
I'd still advocate Offshore Drill crew as a career as most things in comparison are easy

[dave19w] 09/3/2017 12:14

Hi Gibso,

That's good to know there are some others from the Oilfield in here. I have been in for 10 years and still holding on by the skin of my teeth (last 2.5 years been tough and pay cuts/job losses already happened to me and many friends), I have never turned any pipe myself as I work mostly on the Supply/MFG side. Must have been tough in the N.Sea especially in the 11 months a year winters. And yes, that is exactly the type of cost cutting that has been going on, and ironically the cost of the diesel to run the rig has likely gone down also (due to the low oil price) and this is often paid by the operator. And it will hit those dizzying heights again like you say, that is for certain. Only a matter of time. I see it well over 100 a barrel again in the next few years in fact, but it will take us all by surprise.. again.

[robbiekeane] 09/3/2017 12:05

Many thanks all for your quick responses. $32pb looks like a decent buffer should there be a downturn in oil price.

[gibso6767] 09/3/2017 11:56

Dave , excellent post , I've two previous careers North Sea Offshore in both Drilling and Scaffolding/ Rope Access .

Was going to go again for my third and final jaunt but the money V time away isn't worth it .

My second tenure Offshore was from 2005 to 2008 and my hourly rate was £24( this is with an advanced Scaffold card and rope access uplift ).being paid a 14 hour day
In 2017 they are offering me £21 for the same job .

Under no illusion it was good then but that's my example of cost cutting , it will slowly but surely get to those dizzy heights again , wash rinse repeat

[leeson31] 09/3/2017 11:55

$26/b opex, but $6/b capex... $32/b total. on ~$50/b sales, thats ~$18/b netbacks..

EPS ~20k bopd = ~$118.8m net revs/annum, allowing for 10pc downtime/maintenance....

thats ~$10c/sh eps.... or ~8p/sh eps, and on sp50p, thats a forward per of 6.25


then theres the nav/sh to consider from lancaster.. and if lancaster is connected to halifax, and warick to lincoln.......... wouldnt worry about poo at mo, hur is fundamentally hugely discounted to nav anyhow...

if we use a conservative ~1b barrels overall, at $3/b valuation, thats $3b or ~£2.4b, or ~200p/sh NAV, in additiona to future income from the EPS... plenty of free cashflow from ~$118.8m/annum for further development too...

[dave19w] 09/3/2017 11:49

Hi Robbie,

The cost per barrel is less based on the location and more the operator. The Production costs reduction you are referring to in the North Sea is a concerted effort by North Sea operators to reduce their overheads and operating costs (as they were arguably too high in the past). They will do this by re-negotiating with Drilling contract rates (Day Rates) and laying off non essential staff etc. For Hurricane as a small operator with huge assets i would expect the cost per barrel to be very low as they naturally will run lean. Huge assets of and high yield wells obviously means lower cost per barrel as the same costs are set against more barrels.. If you get what i mean. Cheers

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/3/2017 11:44

robbie, the company have put opex at around $26/bbl. Which field(s) do the CNR figures apply to? At a guess an old field with high water cut?

[gary38] 09/3/2017 11:38

Another tree shake which is usual before news.Not long now only 17 working days including today before end of Q1.

[robbiekeane] 09/3/2017 11:37

I have read that Production Costs in the North Sea are dropping. Does anyone have an idea what the projected costs per barrel are for HUR?

From Oil Voice: Production costs for Canadian Natural Resources in the North Sea came in around $42 per barrel—well below the current rate for a Brent barrel at $55.17—down by a third compared to overhead the year prior.
2016 per-barrel costs stood at $42.47, and by 2016 Q4, costs were down to $41.66, the Calgary-based company reported.

[haideralifool] 09/3/2017 11:22

idleduck it was a Soco well in Vietnam, I think they lost the drillbit there as well.