Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 07/4/2023 20:20

I have to ask...What's a SNAFU?

[dickbush] 07/4/2023 19:58

One of the most influential voices for aggressive Fed action on rates changes tack:

Summers Says Recession Probabilities Rising, Fed Nearing the End. Bloomberg.

[dickbush] 07/4/2023 18:09

China, the world’s second-largest economy, increased its gold reserves in March for a fifth month in a row, as central banks globally continue to pile up reserves of gold in the face of high inflation and heightened geopolitical risks.

The People’s Bank of China boosted its gold reserves by around 18 tons last month, per data from the central bank cited by Bloomberg.

The officially reported Chinese reserves of gold now stand at 2,068 tons, having increased in each of the past five months.



That’s the longest period in which China has been consistently buying gold for months since a ten-month period that ended in September 2019.

Central banks globally have been buying gold for months, with reported global gold reserves rising by 52 tons during February – the eleventh consecutive month of net purchases – following the 74 tons central banks added in January, according to data from the World Gold Council.

In the first two months of 2023, central banks reported net purchases of 125 tons, which was the strongest start to a year back to at least 2010 – when central banks became net buyers on an annual basis, the council said this week.

The largest single purchase in February was reported by the People’s Bank of China, which added 25 tons of gold in that month. Turkey, Uzbekistan, Singapore, and India also added gold reserves in February.

[plat hunter] 07/4/2023 15:18

On gold, we could potentially sell of from here to test 50ma of circa 1900 but I do think if it happens it will also be short lived...

3month T bill inversion over the 10y is again at it's largest spread for over 40years and will start hurting banks again over the next couple weeks, setting the ground for a repeat of the strength we've enjoyed through march

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/4/2023 14:45

#PH, further upside does hang on Dugbe and how that plays out, I am here for some dividends in 18-24 months time, another self funded mine build will kick that can into the grass and not for me, BUT if HUM retain a minority shareholding and let VEIN/ESAN build it then that works and adds more value, a sale of our 51% realising more immediate value to wipe out the Kouroussa debt, and maybe a special dividend..?

Funds tied up here need to be discounted 8% p/a for the dividends we are not getting, and another 10% for inflation, so we need to see scratch +30% for 2021/22 in terms of a profit and we are well on the way, a very interesting point in our journey from late H1, into H2 now with Kouroussa coming online..

#DB, I cannot see POG weakening much, rates will of course be the driver, US inflation data next week will in turn drive rates in May, they are near to topping out now stress fractures have already appeared in the banking sector, Gold will rip when they plateau/pivot, some of which is getting priced in now..

[borderterrier1] 07/4/2023 14:08

Fat Grunter More utter garbage from you I see this morning? Quote:- "This will keep going now to 70p...." Is that the same prophetic nonsense as your "This will be a 10 bagger before Christmas" Christmas 2019? ROFLMAO.

[dickbush] 07/4/2023 13:49

Two years from now with $2,000 gold I can get to 80p, based on 3 times EBITDA. Take off 2p for every $15 mil of net debt. Nothing in for Dugbe.

TWO risks:

Gold price $2,000 plus. I'm reasonably comfortable with that.

8 qtrs without a SNAFU. Given the record, that's the risk that worries me.


US Employment plus 236,000. Still too high for the Fed to think about cutting rates. On the positive side, wage inflation was up 0.3% and 4.3% y/y. It was 4.6% through February.

Eyes down looking for next week's CPI and PPI data. Should be helpful.

[plat hunter] 07/4/2023 12:35

I ditto LLB Jaspo and that's excluding Dugbe.

Which coincidentally is the biggest risk, we could find ourselves selling off from a market peak again in 2 years with a debt burden of 300 + million against a 500 mill mcap and that would probably see me selling out.

Dugbe is conflicting, on one hand I'd love to see it into production and on the other, I don't want a repeat of the last 2 years

[jaspoland] 07/4/2023 11:58

LLB thanks for the reply. AAZ allows me to sleep at night but Hum has the ability to add some fireworks in the 12/18 months. Going to be interesting to see it unfold

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/4/2023 11:41

#PH, ready for the ride here, its been a painful 18-24 months, but early teens for break even..

#jaspoland, current MCAP is GBP60M, debt around USD115M, cash zero gives an EV of cGBP150M but once the debt and trade payables are cleared that comes down to just 60M

Debt free late 2024 gives shareholder equity of around USD350M on 600M shares and 58 cents / 47 pence a share..

200,000 ounces a year at a 750 margin would give us 150M EBITDA say 50% 75M net / EPS 12.5 cents, a couple of years out from now we could have a PE of 10 giving an share price of around 100 pence.. :o)

[jaspoland] 07/4/2023 11:04

PH what do you see the EV of Hum if/when production hits 200k oz and gold is say $2k

[plat hunter] 07/4/2023 10:13

This will keep going to 70p now over the next 12-18 months.. Not excluding the odd pull back here and there to reset the strength indicators, with each one encouraging more and more trend buyers buying the dip to fuel the next leg.

It's going to be fun, enjoy it.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/4/2023 07:42

Nice finish here, 10 pence for Easter is fine, 2,000+ POG, Q1 update in 2/3 weeks, and we are nicely positioned with Kouroussa 1st pour 8-12 weeks out, a good recovery and everything is there for the taking, back in the teens before/after our next update..20/30/40 pence might seem a long way off, but so was 10 pence from 5 pence.. :o)

[borderterrier1] 06/4/2023 21:07

farrugia Quote:- "this is a miner that had been suffering high mining costs." Err...... no. Wrong I'm afraid. This is a miner with and incompetent, inexperienced Daddy's Boy in charge. Please read what japsoland says a few posts below then wise up, there's a good chap

[plat hunter] 06/4/2023 21:01

Too many to list, AIM is literally awash with warrants.

[farrugia] 06/4/2023 19:24

not also giving warrants - i don't see it that often - diluting shareholders plus giving warrants is too much

[plat hunter] 06/4/2023 17:26

Very common with aim too

[farrugia] 06/4/2023 16:01

btw if you think HUM screwed shareholders you should check what Canadian miners do



Share issue at lower price than current + warrants

This is what Canadian precious resources miners like to do. They keep diluting but what is worse is that they also issue warrants with each dilution. This practice is very common with Canadian miners.

[farrugia] 06/4/2023 15:39

it safeguards the company that's what - this is a miner that had been suffering high mining costs! We desperately need that hedge particularly since increasing production going forward won't be an issue since we'll have ample production. I'm not saying hedge all but hedge a portion for gawd's sake!

[plat hunter] 06/4/2023 14:35

Gold is 10% up YTD, if it falls back to 1800 how much do you think a hedge is going to save?

Gold is also trading in contango, so there's more to come yet too.

[jaspoland] 06/4/2023 14:24

"hedging a portion of it ensures we don't get screwed."

Bit late for that don't you think?

Gold going much higher imho

[farrugia] 06/4/2023 12:25

guys contact investor relations and get them to hedge a portion of our production at those high gold prices. That's the only way to safeguard your investment! We will have ample production - hedging a portion of it ensures we don't get screwed.

[plat hunter] 06/4/2023 09:17

There's no hiding place for the FED, the cat is well and truly out of the bag and anything over 4% puts the regionals under huge huge pressure. The market doesn't believe the dot plot either and I don't blame them.

Pivot will come, how much harm the fed do trying to kick the can down the road is anyone's guess though.

[plat hunter] 06/4/2023 09:14

I do like Mo, very interesting fella when they have him on Bloomberg.