Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 01/10/2017 15:16

I said I would try and come up with some numbers to support the Kobada project deal being undertaken by Hummingbird (HUM), so here it is:

Bit tricky trying to assess the overall reductions in Capex and Opex at Kobada by going for a concentrate only processing route and then working out how that looks in terms of a LoM NPV/IRR on a 100% basis.

I then applied a 45% attributable in order to assess the Kobada project value to HUM after the equal split with JV partner AGG and allowing for the 10% free carry for the Mali government (note this may well rise to 20%!!).

I merged the resulting cash flows from the Yanfolila attributable set with the set calculated for HUMs attributable cash flows from Kobada, but did not add anything in for the HUM shareholding in AGG (which will be the equal JV partner in Kobada).

Here are my post tax NPV results across a range of gold prices:

Gold Price ........... 1,100 . 1,200 . 1,250 . 1,300 . 1,400
Yanfolila only (80%) . 107.2 . 133.8 . 151.7 . 161.3 . 195.6
Kobada only (45%) ..... 15.5 .. 24.7 .. 27.5 .. 31.8 .. 40.5
Combined attrib ...... 153.1 . 195.4 . 221.1 . 238.6 . 288.6

It looks as though the combination of the two projects actually improves the NPV above the simple sum of the two.

Obviously I am likely to have errors and we will have to wait for the outcome of the DFS to get a more accurate assessment of the overall benefit from Kobada - but it looks pretty good to me!

Whilst I was at it I tried an estimation for the cost (to HUM) of their attributable oz in-situ at Kobada.

The total Resource (2,239,000 oz) will have effectively cost HUM US$6.4/oz for their share.
The P&P Reserves alone work out at just US$27.9/oz ... which is excellent!

Chip

[bahiflyer] 01/10/2017 10:42

Project update interview by Hummingbirds head of business developement on Vox markets podcast. Sounds very positive.

[zeberdie] 30/9/2017 11:55

I get a warm funky feeling I'm my undercŕackers .

[darola] 30/9/2017 11:36

Next step is to expand production capacity to 200k+. We have the resources to sustain that throughput for 10yrs+.

I smile every day because I was able to find a share like HUM.

[qs99] 30/9/2017 10:53

I think he means £1.20....GLA, like the recent deal a lot, market seems to like it IMO, but is waiting for first pour and production, then IMO we will be or should be off to the races....Just the beginning...DYOR

[darola] 30/9/2017 10:34

Agree with the sentiment zbd but the language is a bit harsh mate

[zeberdie] 30/9/2017 10:26

.apologies for my bad language. What I should have said is...
Deramping is all good and well on pumped up fly by night trendy shares with novice holders.
Hummingbird doesn't quite fit in that box so you are employing a poor tactic when trying that old chestnut here. Just pay the price and be done with it. You know it makes sense :-)
Oh and merry Christmas. Xxxxx

[mirabeau] 30/9/2017 10:07

I like the Betts family behind this. They've been involved in gold smelting and the precious metals sector since the mid C18th. They have a name and a reputation to maintain which is one of the reasons I bought in here. Trust is vital and the Betts exude it in bucket-loads and so I believe what they say

[divmad] 30/9/2017 09:27

He wants it lower for a selfish reason. Simply that.

[charles clore] 30/9/2017 08:56

Zh - for the price to sink to 20p at this stage there would have to be some kind of serious setback imho. I can't imagine what kind of event you might have in mind.

[charles clore] 30/9/2017 08:52

duplicate post

[darola] 30/9/2017 07:21

Hope so, I'll double my holding!

[zhockey] 30/9/2017 06:50

I still think we'll see the 20s before the 40s but WTFDIK!

[westmoreland lad] 29/9/2017 19:35

LOL Riley

There clearly has had to have been a back ground seller as this should be 40p+
by now on recent RNSs. Onwards and upwards from here then !

[rileyma] 29/9/2017 18:26

Its probably zhockey

[charles clore] 29/9/2017 18:18

zh - the price is rising so someone is buying even more than SR Global is selling

[darola] 29/9/2017 18:18

Probably explains the price holding on higher volume. Shifting over 3 million shares when this has been turning over less than 500k a day would have held us back, hopefully there will be less willing sellers and we'll continue today's rise.

[zhockey] 29/9/2017 16:24

Global Fund LP selling out it seems.

[charles clore] 29/9/2017 14:58

Completion of the dish at 60p by xmas coinciding with first gold pour would be very bullish.

[qs99] 29/9/2017 14:30

ah, ta zerberdie, looking forward then to 2012 high instead then as a first stop haha.

[darola] 29/9/2017 13:57

Great volumes the last two days, probably see the interest wain again next week, then reignite end of October/early November for a push closer to .50, profit taking after first pour will see it retrace 10/15% Followed by a steady rise as the business case turns in to real cash.

[zeberdie] 29/9/2017 13:41

QS, nah it touched 37 on the last run.

[brucie5] 29/9/2017 13:27

I hope to be hanging on for the ride. 60p first target.