Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 22/12/2020 11:08

Plat who is SLP?

[plat hunter] 22/12/2020 10:59

Exactly deaconEven if George is right and the mine life is only 5 years then at 1800 dollars an ounce that's 600,000 ounces or circa half a billion on current gold prices, plus tangible assets.So even on the basis of liquidation the company book value would be atleast 500 million or a mere 5 bagger in 4 years time. UK George also claims to hold in SLP which relies on third party material, so why he thinks mine life is a problem is very inconsistent Imo... DYOR

[the deacon] 22/12/2020 10:18

Bought back in over the last couple of days. Just on Yanfolila alone the valuation is cheap, but add in Kouroussa in 18-24 months time and I struggle to find anything more compelling. They've been through the wringer since production started, but maybe there's better days ahead for HUM

[plat hunter] 22/12/2020 10:06

George don't be silly...The current mining and production plan is for 5 years, the assets are a tad more significant.Anyway...60p by July or I'll sell and leave the board to all you moaning minnies

[ronin12] 22/12/2020 09:55

Ukgeorge,

So you're basically suggesting that the AIM market is not worth investing in? That's your preference then as scores have invested in AIM and done exceedingly well. How you balance your risk/reward is up to you but to say that HUM gets away not disclosing enough detail is wrong. Besides have you had a chance to speak to management? Because I have and they've been extremely courteous and prompt, have taken feedback on board.
As for some of your other arguments - that short mine life you're referring to, is being extended through further drilling this year with reserves to be increased. Even if you take the short mine life, at margins of 45% (i.e. net profit of c$45m/pa), the 4-5 years does not compute to the current mcap. Let alone expected increase in mine life, Dugbe and Karoussa. Your points around missed production, cost rising this year - not one mining company can say they haven't had those issues, 2020 has been impacted by Covid and any reasonable person would accept that a 5% miss on guidance at the start of the year is actually an achievement!

As for management, yes - the fact that they get paid top dollar is not ideal, I'd like to see them more aligned but that is not a deterrent when you look at the fundamentals of the company and their present valuation.
Finally majority of the precious metals are in Africa and yes, producing gold in any of these African countries (not just Mali due to the coup) brings about an inherent political risk which I'm sure any investor will evaluate before investing, but for you to just list all the inherent risks as reason not to invest doesn't make any sense. Lots of other large companies have operated there for years and continue to do so without any problems - Barrick, Endeavor etc.

Can you explain the rationale as to why SHG is a better miner? You alluding to the fact that Pasofino is a better investment doesn't tie in with your earlier statement of investing in Mali, as Pasofino's premier target is Dugbe (Libreia - Africa.

The bottom line is one can argue against any investment (like you have), but if you're a reasonable investor you can appreciate the risks, the operational performance and the valuation disparity here.

Let's have a conversation in Q3 2021 when HUM will have cleared off the debt from their books taken to fund Yanfolila, have made revenues next year of c $125m with EBITDA of c$50m, obtained the mining licence for Karoussa, signed the debt deal with Coris to fund the entire capex, have the DFS for the Dugbe project that already has PEA showing a resource of 4.2moz and see where the mcap is. I certainly don't think it would still be at c£100m (that it is today!).

[ukgeorge] 22/12/2020 09:25

Ronin12,

Here are some reason why not to invest.

Opaqueness. Due to being on the Aim market HUM can get away with not disclosing important information this same information is mandatory on as on TSX and ASX. A great example of this is the Q3 results where they reduced what they normally disclose. Why do this? It just implies something is wrong.

Short mine life. 4-5 years, high strip ratio, problems with artisanal miners. Missed the last 3 quarters production targets. Costs have subsequently risen.

Costs do not include head office costs.

Management are not aligned with shareholders-
1p options!
Bonus scheme
Excessive pay
Moving the dugbe asset into a new entity and then investing in said new entity

Mali,
Political risk heightened following military coup
Other mining companies are having problems reclaiming VAT payments

There are many more things that could be mentioned.

Pasofino is probably a better bet than hum. Which is obviously also what Dan and Tom think as that is who they put money into not this.

There are so many better gold miners such as

POLY, CEY, TSG, SHG, FRES, Steppe Gold

[ronin12] 22/12/2020 07:08

Border terrier, there you go again. Again fluff and tactics resorting to criticising historical share prices. You are just a keyboard warrior who has clearly lost some money here.

HUN is positioned for success and is a different beast to 5 years ago. Stop beating a broken drum and come back when you have a coherent argument. Your baseless share price predictions are useless unless you have a valid argument. Historical share price performance does not justify that.

[borderterrier1] 22/12/2020 01:14

Ronin12 Proper research? You are right, of course. That's why in five years this share price has never been more that it was as a mud field. Ramble on and Merry Christmas.

[ronin12] 22/12/2020 00:57

Border terrier, your posting history says it all. Constant criticism of the past without any coherent reasoning to back your delusional thesis.
Let’s get some facts straight
a) This is a 100koz + producer with margins greater than 45% on FY20 avg price. That’s $170m + revenues and $75m+ EBITDA.
b) The Mali asset alone has a mine life of atleast 5 yrs with work done this year to increase reserves.
c) Debt reduced to c£12m by y/e and cash+inventory should exceed that figure.

Based on just the above factors, you think the value of the company should be £70mil (your ludicrous 20p prediction). Or if you could enlighten us as to how you arrived at that figure - we can have a discussion. Because no matter what valuation model you use, you will only get multiples of that price - making the current value an absolute bargain!

Institutions and PIs can sell for a host of reasons, which does not have anything to do with the company. Just because the valuation disparity is as large as it is here, doesn’t mean value accretion will never happen - market always has a way to correct itself. However your uninformed posts with absolutely no facts or figures is quite frankly ludicrous. Surely your time is better spent elsewhere?
Come back with some credible arguments and I’m happy to debate you. We’re all invested to make money but it’s posts like yours that do a disservice to those who post proper research and submit a coherent argument.

Oh and as for valuation - I’m keen to understand what value you attribute to Dugbe at present? And to Karoussa when the mining licence lands?
Please refrain from some fluff that you seem to constantly write about and let’s talk with a straight bat.

[borderterrier1] 21/12/2020 23:20

kennyp52 Investors have been posting "factual figures" here since 2014. ???? Oh, I know, "booked earnings and cash flow" so, THIS TIME they've got it right. But still the share price drifts lower. 20 p by Christmas. Oh, of course, that's right, I already said that a few months ago when this was a lot higher and you said I was wrong. But I was right. But please don't apologize for calling me names, we can't all be perfect can we?

[borderterrier1] 21/12/2020 23:18

So, why are so many selling? Wouldn't they be HOLDING now? Open mouth, insert foot time?

[plat hunter] 21/12/2020 23:12

Oh dear Border, booked earnings and cash flow are facts. The only delusional nutter here is you.

[kennyp52] 21/12/2020 22:08

To be honest .. he makes more sense than you BT1 ... it’s you most people are scratching their heads at ! At least he posts some factual figures on the company and a viewpoint other than just moaning and griping ... like a boring old fart 😂😂😂😂

[borderterrier1] 21/12/2020 21:15

Sorry guys, I just couldn't help myself. If you want a good laugh please read Plat Hunters delusional posts on here about this and also tones77777 10 page essays on the LSE bb. And all the while the share price sinks lower and lower and lower......as it always does. Have a good Christmas.

[thelogman] 21/12/2020 20:06

Could not agree more ronin, back in today as this is a given price for traders like myself. I am only interested in quick profits which hum will deliver. Good luck to you all who will hold till the decent profits. Me 15% will do for this trade, then back in when feel the need.

[dickbush] 21/12/2020 09:14

Gold up 0.8% today. Dollar up 1.8% v Sterling. HUM down. Does not compute. Does not compute.

D
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[ronin12] 21/12/2020 08:05

Thanks LLB!

Gold now trying to push through 1,900 - makes the value disparity here even more alarming. Primed for a phenomenal re-rate.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/12/2020 19:42

#Ronin12.. a final drilling programme is being carried out at the Sanioumale East (“SE”) deposit. Results to be released before year end to complete Hummingbird’s to date, successful 2020 exploration and drilling campaign..

Once drilling at SE is finalised, Hummingbird will update the Yanfolila mineral resource models and aim to release those findings in Q1 2021..

The Company’s 2021 budget is expected to be finalised in the coming weeks, with the aim to release in Q1 2021, including key findings and forecast estimates..

Kouroussa pre-development plans are continuing, the Company is awaiting the award of the mining license by the government to then move into the development stage of this exciting gold project once pre-development plans are complete..

[ronin12] 20/12/2020 17:49

Expecting a good finish to 2020 - over the next couple of weeks, especially given the rebound expected in the gold price.
From a news front, we should hear about the final drilling results at Yanfolila, and the initial drilling results at Dugbe.

Ofcourse Karoussa mining permit can land anytime and that should make for a strong re-rate as the market is not pricing that asset yet. January should see a flurry of important news flow - final Q4 numbers leading to the non audited final 2020 figures. The updated mine plan for Yanfolila following the drilling this year and the guidance for FY21. Critically I’m confident we will exceed the financial metrics for FY20 despite the slight reduction in production due to the excellent gold price this year. I expect revenues of c$175m and EBITDA of c$70m, cumulative in net profit of c$45m following capex and other costs. £100m mcap at the moment is madness and I expect this to be several multiples of current value by Q3 2021 once Karoussa is being built, Dugbe DFS is out, debt fully paid up and making EBITDA of c$80-90m in 2021.

[plat hunter] 18/12/2020 16:09

Something interesting just happened on the 4hr chart. Yesterday's strength into the close was a breakout of it's channel and this morning the parabolic sar switched position to support. Standby peeps, this is going to blowHttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ySEsbQJe