Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 20/5/2020 11:00

I agree that currently the sum of the parts of HUM is more than the whole.

That doesn't mean that Dugbe will be adding soon to the shareprice.

[dan_the_epic] 20/5/2020 10:55

Casual I agree on Yanfo. I disagree on Dugbe. There is massive value in Dugbe and it just needs a crystallisation point. Tell me, if it was a listed business continuing with exploration to get towards 6m ounces, it would be valued at £50m-£75m minimum as long as it had enough working capital to last 12 months (£10m quid). Do you disagree with that? There are loads of companies that prove that view is not stupid. So why not spin out Dugbe into a listed vehicle with an IPO and a £10m capital raise and retain a 70%+ shareholding? That would immediately crystallise value.

[casual47] 20/5/2020 10:39

Ron, my view is that HUM should rerate towards 80p just off the back of progress at Yanfolila: LOM increase, reaching debt-free, initiating dividends and a further tie-up with Cora.

Dugbe in the short to mid term is for me more of a liability than an asset as it will require huge amounts of capex just to get to BFS alone and the right management decisions are needed to avoid dilution or serious problems. Plus once Dugbe gets progressed more the country risk begins to become more of a factor also so sentiment around Liberia will start to influence the shareprice.

[ronwilkes123] 20/5/2020 10:35

That may be casual But in business cash is king - once a businsss can generate free cash it will rerateEgypt for years was hardly safe yet centamins price always recovered

[ukgeorge] 20/5/2020 10:31

Hopefully they do not want to sell the full 45M shares.....

Also must be another big seller as they have only sold a 1.2M shares

[casual47] 20/5/2020 10:21

Note the connection: Australia

Nobody is paying a premium for scoped ounces in Liberia.

Imo, Dugbe: BFS 3-5 years away. Production closer to 10 years away.

[seagreen] 20/5/2020 10:17

greatland gold market cap is 3 times this and has not produced anything
CAI in Astralia market cap is nearly 3/4 of this wont produce anytime soon

Just have to wait if they carry on producing at these levels ...at these gold prices etc

[glennborthwick] 20/5/2020 09:49

yes, someone in Mauritius top slicing a few selling a few. He bought at 15.2p so will have made a nice profit in a year.

[ronwilkes123] 20/5/2020 09:43

There is an rns out

[casual47] 20/5/2020 08:54

Centamin has huge exploration assets in Ivory coast and Burkina Faso. They have a huge cash pile and yet those projects are progressing at snails pace. I'm pretty sure the contribution of these assets to the shareprice of Centamin is negligible (zero).

[casual47] 20/5/2020 08:46

Greatland Gold : location location location.

[charlieeee] 20/5/2020 08:17

Well, have a laugh at CNR: half the market cap of this, similar proposition, but no producing mine and "near term" plans for something fairly small scale.

That shows the madness of the market and how misleading EV is as a key metric taken in isolation.

As the cash starts to pile up here, it opens up so many opportunities, organic and inorganic.

[dan_the_epic] 20/5/2020 08:09

Exactly andrew. They are being punished ridiculously for not progressing it over Yanfolila when it is a quite incredible resource they have found there in its own right. I repeat. If the business was just Dugbe with £7m cash in the bank, the market cap would easily be £40-50m BARE minimum. It could easily be £100m .

Targets for today. 1.75m of volume would be nice, plus holding above 29.25p at the close.

[andrewsr] 20/5/2020 08:05

Greatland Gold are probably more than 10 years away from production with no defined resource, but valued at £335m. If their JV partner (Newmont/Newcrest?) walks it's worth virtually nothing.
Dugbe is potentially about 3 years away - 1 year for a BFS, 2 years for construction if, and it's a big if, a partner was found in the coming weeks.

[borderterrier1] 19/5/2020 21:35

new_buyer Please desist.

[casual47] 19/5/2020 21:33

They should be able to get to 78p just off the back of Yanfolila, imo, e.g. once they get a proper LOM and start delivering dividends.

Dugbe is too far in the future to add much to the share price now, imo.

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 21:25

When you look at it and stocks like Cardinal Resources, the more I realise that if Hummingbird was just Dugbe and say they had £7m quid in the bank. This stock would be valued on £40 - £50m easily at bare minimum. Look at Condor Gold! Lots of analogies of slightly larger businesses with very similar numbers and scale to Dugbe valued at £150m to £200m in pre development stage

It really does make the valuation here quite incredible. They are getting actively penalised for pursuing Yanfolila which is throwing off incredible amounts of cash to strengthen the balance sheet when Dugbe must be pushing an IRR of 50-60% at spot prices.

If they play their cards right, you could easily value Yanfolila alone at an EV of £175m and Dugbe at £100m. I am not even exaggerating but that would be almost 165% upside or 78 pence

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 21:24

When you look at it and stocks like Cardinal Resources, the more I realise that if Hummingbird was just Dugbe and say they had £7m quid in the bank. This stock would be valued on £40 - £50m easily at bare minimum. Lots of analogies of slightly larger businesses with very similar numbers and scale to Dugbe valued at £150m to £200m in pre development stage

It really does make the valuation here quite incredible. They are getting actively penalised for pursuing Yanfolila which is throwing off incredible amounts of cash to strengthen the balance sheet when Dugbe must be pushing an IRR of 50-60% at spot prices.

If they play their cards right, you could easily value Yanfolila alone at an EV of £175m and Dugbe at £100m. I am not even exaggerating but that would be almost 165% upside or 78 pence

[new_buyer] 19/5/2020 21:16

Any day next week we should get the latest update, looks like the market is expecting and anticipating it!!

[dogwalker] 19/5/2020 15:55

Thanks Chip.

[chipperfrd] 19/5/2020 15:50

:-)

No, not necessarily. One has to still apply all the other factors before making choices. But still useful to make these comparisons - especially with producing mines.
Chip

[dogwalker] 19/5/2020 15:47

Should we all be buying PERE then do you think Chip?

[chipperfrd] 19/5/2020 15:42

Useful comparisons posted earlier by Dan-the-epic. Thought I would check the numbers against my own data.


EPIC . Ev/M.I. ($/oz)
PERE .. 3.1
RRR ... 3.4
KEFI .. 8.1
ALTN .. 8.5
XTR ... 9.1
SOLG .. 14.6
CGNR .. 16.1
LND ... 17.5
PAF ... 21.4
CGH ... 23.8
GRL ... 25.2
GDP ... 32.3
RMM ... 32.4
CNR ... 39.1
HUM ... 51.7
KAT ... 69.7
GAL ... 69.9
ARS ... 86.5
HGM ... 86.7
PUR ... 91.5
HOC ... 96.3
RSG ... 100.5
SRB ... 105.4
EUA ... 107.8
MTL ... 114.0
VAST .. 114.4
POG ... 114.6
AAZ ... 118.4
CEY ... 126.1
SGZ ... 138.4
AAU ... 147.2
TSG ... 151.7
CNG ... 159.0
SHG ... 159.4
CMCL .. 191.4
FRES .. 264.7
POLY .. 343.4

Chip

[jestercat2] 19/5/2020 14:54

For those who like technicals - STRONG BUY

hxxps://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-HUM/technicals/

[ukgeorge] 19/5/2020 14:50

Dan even when these hit 37p in two weeks time they will still be good value. :)