Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[zeberdie] 01/5/2018 11:36

UK George does that mean we can stop listening to your negative bias every 5 minutes ?

[ukgeorge] 01/5/2018 10:35

I've just added a few at 33.4p. Roll on Q2 results of 30koz and reasonable costs.

[charles clore] 01/5/2018 10:32

Maybe we have seen the end of Pageant selling. Looking quite positive today.

[zeberdie] 01/5/2018 10:31

Maybe the new guys phoning round their contacts.

[lasata] 01/5/2018 10:08

Wider audience taking note of commercial production starting

[darola] 01/5/2018 09:24

Hopefully this the start of a slow sustained rise. Deserves to break 40 now.

[rickyhatton] 01/5/2018 07:22

Very Good results ("outstanding potential") as previously trailed by Cora. Teke is potentially very positive for hum LOM and output, and could now become, after conversations with Hum, Cora's priority. Teke is potentially much better than most of Hums satellite deposits.

"Some excellent grades and widths, a deep weathering profile which signifies the potential for lower cost mining, and both discoveries' proximity to an operational processing plant underpin the outstanding potential which we see at Tekeledougou. I look forward to promptly pursuing these discoveries, with follow up infill and extensional RC programmes being planned, as well as some core drilling to help understand the new systems."

[bookwormrobert] 30/4/2018 18:07

In the conference call Dan reacted to a figure of about $60m with a positive comment - so a bit better than $53m, I think.
It's interesting to note the conditions under which the share options are granted at the end of today's long RNS. They set a target of 100,000 ounces for the next nine months (April to Dec) at a "normalised" AISC of $750 per ounce. (See RNS for exact conditions).
Anyway, all good here. Actually, very good. Except for the share price, of course. When will Pageant be gone?

[chipperfrd] 30/4/2018 17:11

CEO says "15% of FCF = US$8m".

That translates to a total estimate for FCF (theirs) of c. US$53m.

Chip

[zeberdie] 30/4/2018 16:41

How did you get the $53M

[utrecht_00] 30/4/2018 16:25

the only number that counts in that RNS is the expectation that they will be produing $53 million of free cash flow a year. That is outstanding. And with the pog set to increase it just gets better. Cash at bank covers debt marhet cap circa £110 million, todays news prices HUM at a p/e of 2.6.... whats not to like?

[ukgeorge] 30/4/2018 15:50

Centamin aside. (I didn't bring them up)

These will imo do little until the q2 results are out in circa 3 months time.

Then we will fingers crossed get confirmation on low costs and around 27koz of gold production.

I shouldn't think they will hit an aisc of $750 and personally would be happy with anything sub $950. Interesting that they mentioned the 60 cents per litre in the update today. It would be good to know the current price. The mine has a high strip ratio so fuel prices will be making up a big chunk of costs. Shame they did not hedge the fuel at lower prices.

[chipperfrd] 30/4/2018 15:32

UKGeorge,

Centamin has been a great stock for me since 2001. But you are giving an incorrect impression of it in your last post here.

Their reserves are actually 8.9Moz, not the 20Moz you are stating.

You should also be mentioning that their attributable earnings are shared with the government on a 50:50 basis. HUM's attributable earnings are 80%.

Like most startups, CEY have spent many years building up their mine having raised lots of cash and working through a number of different crisis issues.

Give HUM a bit of time and they may well perform just like CEY. They have certainly done very well so far at Yanfolila.

Chip

[redtrend] 30/4/2018 15:26

I'm talking about the principle of one mine which others have raised. I'm sure you can pro rata.

CEY's market cap is 1.8bn for 580k oz forecast and HUM's is little over 100m for 120k oz.

If HUM's free cash flow is as advertised and net debt quickly changes to net cash, it's quite clearly under valued. Its under valued for a good reason - risk profile. It needs to prove itself but if it does, it will obviously re-rate

[charles clore] 30/4/2018 15:25

George - and what percentage of Sukari is owned by Centamin?

[ukgeorge] 30/4/2018 15:11

The Sukari mine produces 600koz per annum and has 20Moz of reserves hardly comparing apples with apples.

[redtrend] 30/4/2018 15:04

Centamin are a 1 trick pony... Hasn't hurt them.

If HUM prove the free cash flow and AISC forecasts are as advertised over the next few quarters and continued exploration successfully extends LoM, the company and share price will do incredibly well.

After commercial production has only been achieved today, find all this talk about "one trick pony" bizarre

[qs99] 30/4/2018 14:31

As with all these things, it is all about management and delivery. One trick pony at the moment, but needs to expand its reserves. As it delivers, share price should rise IMO helping it to raise money and through FCF to fund exploration and maybe the odd takeover of other under performing assets. To be fair to management to date they have promised and delivered to those promises. Long may that transparency continue!

[darola] 30/4/2018 14:30

Recording of this morning conference.

[ukgeorge] 30/4/2018 14:27

I guess one worry is how much oxide ore is available and then if the laterite ore will achieve the same recovery rates.

The call is now on the website

[roguetreader] 30/4/2018 14:25

Chip
I agree, $53M FCF in year 1 will be a great achievement. I was a bit stumped by their statement in the Feb 2018 Presentation when they stated they would look to achieve $70M FCF in the first full year of production - as none of my attempts at modelling the numbers came anywhere near that number, without making assumptions around an increase in the gold price.
RT

[catsick] 30/4/2018 14:14

Interesting point is that news itself does not push prices up only strong actual buying can do that, good news comes and generally with aim shares we are more likely to see capitulation than a strong rise, most aim holders are waiting for a kick from news and will bail out when nothing happens, long term investors can build nice positions as you now can here , I have been buying again today as a lot more risk is removed from the position but not many other punters have ....

[chipperfrd] 30/4/2018 13:26

Well done to all at Yanfolila for making such a success of this start-up :-)

All looks to be well on course to hit initial targets (extrapolating from the March figures).

If their estimation of 15% of FCF equating to US$8m is correct, then 100% of FCF of c. US$53.3m for their 1st year in production would be outstanding!

I have no problem with the options. Compared to what goes on elsewhere it is relative peanuts. People need to remember that without entrepreneurs like Dan Betts there would be no company to invest in at all!

The first tranche vesting looks pretty demanding. Based on the March figures, I get an estimated 116koz of gold produced over 12 months. To do 100koz in 9 months looks tough, but nice if they can get there.

re Liberia assets: I have wondered if the new management of ASO might work out a deal with HUM although I suspect that ASO would only want 100% ownership. We will have to see what eventually transpires at Dugbe.

Chip

[bo doodak] 30/4/2018 11:43

HUM are also still actively exploring all options to unlock the value in Liberia, but recognise its really to big to fund themselves at present.
Dan said he hopes to announce something on this within the next year.

On the Pageant question, while the answer was obviously non-committal, I read it as indicating they likely won't sell out completely