Meant to read in the current reality and situation. Yes clearly they are in trouble for most investors. I’m essentially a proverbial vulture picking over the carcass
I do see a small chance of HUM escaping Coris’s clutches entirely.
You called it right border and so did I
What I am now focussed on is arbitrage mainly. |
The things they say. "I warned everyone that Hum was in trouble but now I can see clear evidence that they are not in trouble." Really? Is that why the share price was 40p as a hole in the ground 6 years ago and today it is 1.90? Priceless!!!!!! |
Tiger the situation in Mali has been known a year , it’s factored into the share price and always has been
This is all about Koruso at the minute |
Tiger I barely even take in your views at all as your just someone that pops up all over with views that are often wrong , all I’ll say is let’s see how this pans and prepare to eat humble pie.
If I’m wrong I stand to lose a lot of money , but I am pretty certain what’s going on here and I’ve no doubt in the worst case I’ll receive 2.66P
I warned everyone that HUM was in trouble but I actually now can see clear evidence they are not in trouble and coris are been opportunistic.
You obviously don’t factor they are on commercial run rates. That is fact
I’ve called this right all the way and my money is where my mouth is as you know. |
 I get that you're in over your skis and watching what you considered a sure trade going horribly wrong, but:
1. Mali has gotten significantly worse very recently - see the shakedowns at RSG and Barrick by the military junta. (Always remember 50% of Mali's exports are gold, so it's the one easy place for the junta to get quick cash (which they desperately need as the war in the North os going badly). I don't know if the junta have made demands of HUM as regards Yanfolila yet, or if they haven't got round to it as it's a smaller mine. But it's coming for sure. And, all in all, Yanfolila's value to HUM is now a fat round zero.
2. I read the Dugbe news as the potential buyer getting cold feet and backing out. That's $30m gone. I thought that was an excellent price for Dugbe, all things considered. I doubt they'll find anybody else ready to pay that much. Or even a buyer at all. It's a very difficult project (for reasons I've gone into a hundred times already).
And, yes, these developments would cause somebody in Coris's position to reassess. They have security over the assets; so bankruptcy is an option for them. The only reason for them not to pull the trigger is they don't want to annoy / lose all the other creditors. |
Tiger Mali has been on going a year , your creating fear I get it. Dugbe theirs lots of interested parties that could bid higher and the current bidder is seeking finance. Least we have a ball park of firesale value.
On coris taking their time yes of course these things are complicated.
But many think the company has achieved commercial production so they don’t want this dilution and want to find other ways.
I don’t think you have popped up not knowing to much. But I can assure you the Mali situation was baked in to the share price and it’s all about Kuruso here as Yano was losing the company money , now break even.
I honestly think theirs an outside chance they can navigate this without all this and come out the other side.
They are on a run rate of over 30,000 a month at Kurso that’s 30 million extra that pays coris payments. |
I think an important RNS this morning despite its blandness - indicating that the Coris debt for equity deal may not be going as smoothly as planned.
Things have gotten worse for HUM over the last few weeks. UIN Mali, especially, with the actions of the military junta there. And, also, with the seeming collapse of the Dugbe sale. So maybe Coris are reflecting on those developments before proceeding, |
Chesty1 This has been "dead for holders" for years, it's just a pity nobody would listen to logic and common sense. Now I'm hoping the the AIM investigation will conclusively prove this and the authorities will prosecute those responsible. |
This is dead for holders.... |
It’s already happened , it’s already over. But it’s cheaper and more efficient to take this out at 2.66
It’s never likely going to be anymore than that.
Its value to shareholders is now 20 million
Coris now have taken control of the rest. |
I've been watching this for several years. Never dipped a toe in because of geography. I would get out now were I holding, this is likely to go one way.Good luck PlattyCheersFrog |
Hi all, does anyone know when the vote will take place and how us personal investors get access to vote? I use the Youinvest platform, will I automatically get a message with an option to vote when the time comes? Cheers |
Big shakedown of Resolute mine operations in Mali (Syama) by military junta there.
Some here having trouble understanding that HUM is insolvent and entirely at the mercy of its creditors. Best of luck to those trying to arbitrage the difference between the current share price and 2.6p, but it's not a game I would ever play. Way way too risky. |
burt777 You're working with "logic and experience" with this? You're obviously comparing apples to oranges or extracting the urine, right? Over the last few years, two investors here have said the same thing, Plat was one, I was the other. Guess who was right? |
 All I hoped was to persuade you to think about it. What happens to the share price if it is announced that this is not going ahead? I'd wager gains might be better than 2.6p, particularly if kor is finally gaining momentum. Because let's be honest, kor is worth much more then 2.6p on it's own.
Other things I think could also trip Coris up in their ambition.
I'm not saying that what they are doing is 'immoral' a such.. it's 'opportunistic', 'just business'.. maybe. And it was DB and co that left the door open to it(though they may have been running short on options towards the end, to be fair). But you initially said Coris was just protecting themselves and I think that is a big stretch, they are doing a fair bit more than protecting themselves and if kouroussa is @ 2700/week, frankly everything is just fine and they need take no action. They are trying to take a paid for mine at a _very_ low price, just as it's on the verge of chucking out cash. Any existing holder with any sense should vote against that(just my opinion, not advice of course!). |
Absolutely agree with all you have said there and it’s food for thought.
Just reading bismarks message that I received a phone call from insiders , this is not the case. I work on logic and experience.
I think coris are doing what anyone would do in their position. But if Koruso is at commercial then it’s possible things happen here.
And my vote is not decided to be clear |
You didn't really answer the question of why you wouldn't vote no. It's not like that will reduce your options post vote. The only laughably small danger is your no vote could result in it going into administration.. and I think we all know that is not really in anyones interest, particularly that of the number one shareholder and number one lender.
I am not a holder on your scale, but I will certainly vote against the waiver. In reality, if it is voted down - some other arrangement will be reached and the company will continue as a listed company. This is a better outcome for ALL non Coris parties, I would argue - yourself included.
You paint Coris as benign, just protecting themselves, but that is not really true. They are behaving as a predator, DB and co put hummingbird in a weak position and they are trying to steal it cheaply from current shareholders. If the declared position of Kouroussa is true, the company is viable as is(well, with new management is an extra bonus).. and just requires some slight wiggle room in it's debt terms. Coris could just provide that - they'd still stand to do very well out of the situation in the medium term. |
Hi Dusty it’s more to do with the situation I’m invested as I knew it would end up un a situation where coris struck.
Sadly there are ways that coris and the company can paint a blacker picture and they hold all the cards so pointless fighting them.
Plus people are selling at this price so what does that say , I’m surprised it’s dipped this low as the debt to equity will happen in all probability as it suits the situation.
Could I vote No ? Yes I could as the situation evolves most certainly it could be commercial production is announced and the board feels it can juggle. Couid be suddenly a higher offer arrives for Dugbe or the current bidders getting finance sorted.
Could be coris decide it’s better to keep the listing and some other alternative funding partner arrives.
So many possibilities really and this isn’t done.,
With Koruso likely at commercial run rates that’s big extra cash flows. They have a slight chance of coris backing off a full takeover but sadly the 71.8% looks done.
See what Tuesdays update looks like.
Lastly on the LSE board I find it hysterical they are trying to find a link between me and Dan Betts. I cannot stand the guy!!
But my holding is fully disclosed to the market. People try find conspiracy where their is none.
I personally am very sad for shareholders here but that’s investing and I am investing in the current fear as this is not going under , it’s valuable and a going concern.
Coris just rightly want to protect themselves by taking it private and the blame lands fair and squarely with the management.
It’s a moving situation so I’ve not actually decided what I am doing with my shareholding. |
dusty42 I agree 100% with what you say here. With different management this absolutely could be profitable. Multitudes of shareholders have already said that. Get rid of Del Boy, Tom Hill and the other hangers on. Put some DECENT management in charge. Simple. |
Ha.. ok burt, you being goldinvestor makes some sense. I was wondering why on earth you seemed pleased at the prospect of voting yes and getting 2.6p for your shares.
A question for you - why would you not vote no? If this can be blocked(hard for me to understand why any remaining true independent shareholder would not vote 'no').. then surely the prospects for your fairly significant holding are better. And if the no vote fails, it surely doesn't mean you can't accept any offer?
Lets be honest, by the sound of it the company is very much viable as is if kouroussa is pouring 2700 ounces a week, not to mention any dugby sale. This is not likely to go to administration. |
burt777 All well and good. And I also predicted that this would happen because I had good reason to. Nobody listened. But don't the long time shareholders need to know exactly why the co. has deteriorated to such an extent over 5-6 years? Where are the missing millions? I don't believe PP management is the only problem here. Nor does trader465. |
In summary
1.coris deferred the 31st of October payment to provide liquidity
2.Given the final 10 million tranche to likely pay suppliers
3.Hum a likely profitable now
4.Coris are converting the full 30 million CIG loan to equity at 2.66 meaning they have 71.8%
Does that sound like a bank planning admin ? No
Then they can make a firm offer
The waiver can be voted to be removed and the full timeline is given to market.
I’m 99% certain in my mind that all this will happen. Big companies fund managers often make a binary decision based on nothing more than risk analysis.
It spooked a few people the big sale but it’s a small percentage of the shares in issue it’s just liquidity is poor.
I think it will recover Monday above 2P as people look to Tuesday. And if Tuesday it’s a done deal or indications a formality. Then The marker makers open it up far higher
All in my opinion
DYOR |
Kenji hope you read this board as well , I deleted my profile on LSE , I am gold investor. I hold 1.31% it’s disclosed to the market. I thought I would have to remain silent so thought it best to delete my profile but I am assured I can have an opinion.
The drop is only due to liquidity been low and should recover Monday a tad in my view . Doubt their will be many sellers , their was no real sellers at below 2.10 level it’s just someone needed the money in a hurry and dumped 11 million in one trade. For the market to swallow that in one go they clearly must have buyers higher.
The current share price is irrelevant and I’m surprised it’s gone this low myself , but it represents uncertainty and people don’t like that. But for me the company has been clear….they plan to update the market 19th November or Tuesday next week.
Everything points to the debt for equity been done at 2.66 as that’s the term sheet , it takes time to draw up and do the due diligence but clear Tuesday could be the day Whilst strongly advising shareholders do nothing.
Clearly people don’t trust the company anymore hence people selling under the debt of equity conversion and potential offer.
For me it’s a basic fear thing of losing the lot but people might want to read the RNS for clues that won’t be the case. This isn’t a company going into admin . It’s had liquidity pumped in 6th November and has plenty overdraft. Plus its weekly run rate is double normal gold production and commercial production will likely be deemed after 30 consecutive days of that run rate.
All in all I’d be very surprised if they were not cash flow positive , the issue was the debt repayment and dugbe sale not happening yet. But it’s not bad news as there are other interested parties and the current bidder is trying to get finance.
Coris I trust and not HUM as they constantly keep supporting this. They have deferred the latest instalment with the interest payable end of December only.
Does that all sound like this won’t go through. Coris need to get full control so it’s my view it’s a done deal they convert. If they don’t it remains a going concern now generating significant cash (speculation) based on the weekly run rates at Koruso.
Mali fear might of driven the share price lower but really that situation was always around in the share price and the company says it’s close to an agreement.
So all in all this for me isn’t done
My investment at 2.20 was based on logic and coris self interest in getting debt to equity swapped to gain most of this. At that point the thing looks viable to me and that’s why coris are going to in my opinion offer 2.66
People are controlled my emotion they have lost a lot of money , but if you stop and think and apply logic and read the full RNS it’s clear that the probability is high that 2.66P stands.
This isn’t investment advice. But most people don’t want to invest in the arbitrage opportunity as they think why risk 100% for 20-30%
But come Tuesday or after that with the confirmation coris swap debt to equity I think this quickly rebounds.
Also theirs all sorts of possibilities that coris decide to leave the listing in tact of shareholders vote no.
Just connecting all the dots but why on earth would they put this in admin at this stage.
I predicted 100% that HUM would end up in this situation, now I will back myself to be correct again.
But do your own research and only invest money you can afford to lose. For in any situation factors and risks appear that you could not foresee.
For me this is a simple Heist by coris and u trust in them not the company to deliver. |
Burt777 Sad really. Even Bernie Madofs ponzi scheme victims were awarded something after the enquiry.
Of course, Madofs company was full of nepotism. Some of the people who lost money did take revenge and many of the family members were found murdered. |
Sadly over here they are toothless and nothing will be done.
The only thing left here is a cheap takeover
Coris will in all certainty convert debt to equity and then have complete control.
What I do find strange is why people are selling 35% below the offer price.
Tuesday they clearly are looking to get the debt to equity RNS out and advised strongly shareholders take no action.
Coris do not really gain anything by putting this in admin as they will want a running saleable / profitable going concern.
It’s only temp fear , come Tuesday or whenever the RNS lands the share price will be back up nearer 2.50
Easy money from here for those of us that understand how to read between the lines.
Feel sorry for the panicked sellers thinking not prepared to wait. Would rather sell 30% cheaper than have a sleepless night. I get it. But I think people should just look at this logically. They want full control.
Putting it into admin will not benefit coris
They could not hint anymore that this is a done deal with paperwork on the way and an upside Tuesday. Don’t throw your shares away cheap theirs a further chance of them getting voted down and the cash flows save the day.
It’s clear Dugbe buyer was to slow and this is the companies plan B
HUM never seems to get leaks and things always tails people by surprise so I doubt anyone that’s sold knows anything. The 11 million seller will prob be able to make the 30% in something else and does not want to hang about.
Should be a move back over 2P Monday as people see a Tuesday RNS indicating the debt to equity conversion. Let’s also realise that debt is unsecured and why on earth if they planned admin would they have extended 30 million and deferred debt.
So the share price is a gift at the min |
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