Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 20/5/2020 08:17

Well, have a laugh at CNR: half the market cap of this, similar proposition, but no producing mine and "near term" plans for something fairly small scale.

That shows the madness of the market and how misleading EV is as a key metric taken in isolation.

As the cash starts to pile up here, it opens up so many opportunities, organic and inorganic.

[dan_the_epic] 20/5/2020 08:09

Exactly andrew. They are being punished ridiculously for not progressing it over Yanfolila when it is a quite incredible resource they have found there in its own right. I repeat. If the business was just Dugbe with £7m cash in the bank, the market cap would easily be £40-50m BARE minimum. It could easily be £100m .

Targets for today. 1.75m of volume would be nice, plus holding above 29.25p at the close.

[andrewsr] 20/5/2020 08:05

Greatland Gold are probably more than 10 years away from production with no defined resource, but valued at £335m. If their JV partner (Newmont/Newcrest?) walks it's worth virtually nothing.
Dugbe is potentially about 3 years away - 1 year for a BFS, 2 years for construction if, and it's a big if, a partner was found in the coming weeks.

[borderterrier1] 19/5/2020 21:35

new_buyer Please desist.

[casual47] 19/5/2020 21:33

They should be able to get to 78p just off the back of Yanfolila, imo, e.g. once they get a proper LOM and start delivering dividends.

Dugbe is too far in the future to add much to the share price now, imo.

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 21:25

When you look at it and stocks like Cardinal Resources, the more I realise that if Hummingbird was just Dugbe and say they had £7m quid in the bank. This stock would be valued on £40 - £50m easily at bare minimum. Look at Condor Gold! Lots of analogies of slightly larger businesses with very similar numbers and scale to Dugbe valued at £150m to £200m in pre development stage

It really does make the valuation here quite incredible. They are getting actively penalised for pursuing Yanfolila which is throwing off incredible amounts of cash to strengthen the balance sheet when Dugbe must be pushing an IRR of 50-60% at spot prices.

If they play their cards right, you could easily value Yanfolila alone at an EV of £175m and Dugbe at £100m. I am not even exaggerating but that would be almost 165% upside or 78 pence

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 21:24

When you look at it and stocks like Cardinal Resources, the more I realise that if Hummingbird was just Dugbe and say they had £7m quid in the bank. This stock would be valued on £40 - £50m easily at bare minimum. Lots of analogies of slightly larger businesses with very similar numbers and scale to Dugbe valued at £150m to £200m in pre development stage

It really does make the valuation here quite incredible. They are getting actively penalised for pursuing Yanfolila which is throwing off incredible amounts of cash to strengthen the balance sheet when Dugbe must be pushing an IRR of 50-60% at spot prices.

If they play their cards right, you could easily value Yanfolila alone at an EV of £175m and Dugbe at £100m. I am not even exaggerating but that would be almost 165% upside or 78 pence

[new_buyer] 19/5/2020 21:16

Any day next week we should get the latest update, looks like the market is expecting and anticipating it!!

[dogwalker] 19/5/2020 15:55

Thanks Chip.

[chipperfrd] 19/5/2020 15:50

:-)

No, not necessarily. One has to still apply all the other factors before making choices. But still useful to make these comparisons - especially with producing mines.
Chip

[dogwalker] 19/5/2020 15:47

Should we all be buying PERE then do you think Chip?

[chipperfrd] 19/5/2020 15:42

Useful comparisons posted earlier by Dan-the-epic. Thought I would check the numbers against my own data.


EPIC . Ev/M.I. ($/oz)
PERE .. 3.1
RRR ... 3.4
KEFI .. 8.1
ALTN .. 8.5
XTR ... 9.1
SOLG .. 14.6
CGNR .. 16.1
LND ... 17.5
PAF ... 21.4
CGH ... 23.8
GRL ... 25.2
GDP ... 32.3
RMM ... 32.4
CNR ... 39.1
HUM ... 51.7
KAT ... 69.7
GAL ... 69.9
ARS ... 86.5
HGM ... 86.7
PUR ... 91.5
HOC ... 96.3
RSG ... 100.5
SRB ... 105.4
EUA ... 107.8
MTL ... 114.0
VAST .. 114.4
POG ... 114.6
AAZ ... 118.4
CEY ... 126.1
SGZ ... 138.4
AAU ... 147.2
TSG ... 151.7
CNG ... 159.0
SHG ... 159.4
CMCL .. 191.4
FRES .. 264.7
POLY .. 343.4

Chip

[jestercat2] 19/5/2020 14:54

For those who like technicals - STRONG BUY

hxxps://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-HUM/technicals/

[ukgeorge] 19/5/2020 14:50

Dan even when these hit 37p in two weeks time they will still be good value. :)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/5/2020 14:02

FY2019 financials in around 10 days time, and we can see how much of a dent the company has put into the trade payables from 2019-H1, we know they will be 6 months old but can then extrapolate forward on the stronger POG.., we know the cash and debt position at Q1-2020 but post reporting events added in the FY could well be the net cash positive milestone.. :o)

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 11:59

Hit 2m of volume. 3m new target for today.

[ronwilkes123] 19/5/2020 11:31

At least news in 10 days ish

[ukgeorge] 19/5/2020 10:58

The traders are welcome to have a penny here and there, but you can't trade a decent amount of shares. I would rather buy a chunk and hold on for the 2-3p up days that are going to happen (unless we have a massive f up). By trading the share you risk imo missing the big moves.

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 10:34

Copied from the AAZ board. Confirmation that we are cheap esecially for a producer moving to net cash soon

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 09:11

No chance of high 30s in a week. This will grind upwards rather than spike. Flush out some stale money who were looking for a 30p exit and get in new money who recognise the value on offer. Picture a staircase as that is what I expect

Volume target for today, it would be nice to see 2m shares traded.

[ronwilkes123] 19/5/2020 09:05

Old adage aim pis can't hold water imho coming to pass here

[ronwilkes123] 19/5/2020 08:59

Too many short term traders imo for that

[ukgeorge] 19/5/2020 08:45

Roll on high 30's within a week or two.

[aim999] 19/5/2020 08:44

Nice start to the week.... +30p now

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2020 08:42

No hard feelings at all from me. We all hope this company will do well and deliver for shareholders and the circumstances seem right this year for this to go on a proper run up.