Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2018 13:26

bubloo,

re the cash flow: the loan is already baked into the NPV as a -ve cash flow in year -1. The posted diatribe effectively counts it twice.

[bubloo] 28/2/2018 12:51

clear miscalculation in that article. after highlighting all the other miscalculations of broker and analyst forecasts, the source of article has got cash flows wrong
he says $ 260 million net cash generated by 2025. pay of the coris loan of $ 60 leaves $200. 80% of which is $160 and not $115 as the article says.
so as per his own calculations it equates to 48 p per share
the above assumption I have made is based on gold at $1300. if gold goes higher and Hum brings the 1 million indicated resources outside present mine plan then we can imagine the numbers. so I am sceptical about the above article and its intention.

[sleveen] 28/2/2018 11:32

As we head into March, I would expect an announcement of breakeven/commerciallity soon.

[ukgeorge] 28/2/2018 10:51

My English is pretty bad but whoever wrote that clearly needed a very good editor and proof reader.

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2018 10:35

Lurker5,

Why don't you name the source of that bearish piece?

Frankly I take issue with much of it and find it incorrect in many areas.

In my own experience, I have found that most NPV targets are conservative over time but serve as a useful 'sanity check' for projects in development.

The author keeps repeating 12% as a discount rate yet I have never encountered such a rate being applied over the last 20 years. Why would they in such a low interest/inflation environment.

The author appears to misunderstand what is actually factored into a DCF/NPV calculations because he/she states that further CAPEX would be added after the event, thus diluting the end result. When in reality all such pre-production outflows are already part of the cash flow calculations.

However, all views are welcomed and it is up to every investor to carry out their own due diligence. And, of course, in the final analysis the company has to actually deliver on their project.
Chip

[return_of_the_apeman] 28/2/2018 10:34

Lurker5, have you got a link to that article?

I have been unable to find it online

Tia

[return_of_the_apeman] 28/2/2018 09:49

Quite right Catsick, bulls need to be brave and step up to buy or else support at 32.5p could be tested which could lead to 26p in short order.

Volume is woefully low

[catsick] 28/2/2018 09:39

Ive been chipping away buying more, this will come good in the end, Its worth having a look at the TSX listed Endeavour as a comparison as it owns most of the other mines in the area and would probably snap up Yanfolila at these prices, they own the close by Hounde mine which is basically twice the size of Yanfolilla and comparable in most other respects, It has also just reached commercial production and sold a 2% royalty stream on produced gold at the mine for 45mio usd which is a crazy high valuation, the market for these royalty streams is very strong and may be a good way for hum to fund the liberia project in part ....

[return_of_the_apeman] 28/2/2018 08:08

Yesterday sell volume > 500k, buys < 100k. Until the seller has gone unfortunately looks like this will drift.

Fml

[ukgeorge] 27/2/2018 21:02

Until we are in commercial production and a quarter or two of cost below $900/oz these are risky. Yes they haven't put a foot wrong but so many have failed at this last hurdle.

[qs99] 27/2/2018 20:09

very odd share price performance....I agree...

[darola] 27/2/2018 20:00

It is fkin irritating, but remain buoyant while there is loads of good news to come. Remember we are still a 'speculative' buy. Once we are a proven entity - with formal cash rich accounts it will be a different story....

[zhockey] 27/2/2018 19:08

Highly predictable, not crazy.

[charles clore] 27/2/2018 18:15

Crazy share price beginning to tick me off

[charles clore] 26/2/2018 14:22

A large, very desperate seller. Either that, or a very stupid one. This should be well up in the 40-50p range by now imho, not still in the mid 30s. Could be interesting to see what happens when full production is announced.

[return_of_the_apeman] 26/2/2018 08:23

Do those large trades at the close on Friday mean we still have the large seller?

[catsick] 24/2/2018 02:17

This very interesting presentation was put up on the aaz board, very relevant to hum as gives some data on just how few mining projects come in on time and budget and then how few make the profits they promoted at the start. Hum are in a minority and if they can provide the cashflow they have projected they will be in a very small minority and deserve a big re ratehttps://youtu.be/U6VDYSZRGe4

[casual47] 23/2/2018 17:35

I can't even remember the last time gold stocks were loved.....

[rhuvaal2] 23/2/2018 16:33

most gold stocks are currently unloved: once the scenery changes we'll see some meaningful re-ratings and across the board too.

[ukgeorge] 23/2/2018 12:04

It's sooooo quiet

[ukgeorge] 21/2/2018 16:18

I hope they achieve it. But from covering the gold sector for a number of years I will remain skeptical (like the market is) until they prove it.

[bookwormrobert] 21/2/2018 12:02

UK George - just to point out that in the latest presentation the company is predicting an AISC of $750 per ounce on commercial production. They've delivered everything that they've promised so far, so I'm pretty confident that they'll deliver on this figure as well.

[ukgeorge] 21/2/2018 10:36

I've entered the competition to visit the minesite. Please help :)



Promise to post an update and will ask plenty of questions. Cheers

Roll on commercial production ASAP