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HRN Hornby Plc

-0.50 (-1.75%)
22 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Hornby Investors - HRN

Hornby Investors - HRN

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Hornby Plc HRN London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-0.50 -1.75% 28.00 12:33:14
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
28.50 28.00 28.50 28.00 28.50
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Posted at 05/1/2022 19:03 by zico01
shares tipped by midas :

Lyndon Davis has spent his entire career in the toy and hobby industry, starting out as a 16-year-old apprentice at Mettoy, the Swansea-based toy company.

Now 61, Davis is chief executive of Hornby, the company behind Scalextric and Airfix kits, Corgi cars and numerous overseas brands, as well as the famous Hornby train sets.

Despite this enviable portfolio, Hornby had been making losses for five years and its entire future was in jeopardy when Davis joined in 2017. He restructured the company from top to bottom and set about recreating what Hornby had always been known for - making trains, planes, ships and cars beloved by children and adults alike.

Fresh: Hornby customers can download an app so they can control their trains online +3
Fresh: Hornby customers can download an app so they can control their trains online

Today, models include a No Time To Die Scalextric kit, the Airfix Supermarine Spitfire, and Harry Potter, Coca-Cola and Beatles train sets. Customers can even download a Hornby app so they can control their trains online.

The group has moved into e-commerce too, so customers can buy goods directly as well as via third party retailers.

Davis even opened a pop-up Hornby store at St Pancras station in London before the pandemic and more may follow in time. Hornby makes most of its products in Asia so the group was hit by supply chain issues and soaring shipping costs last summer. Davis has since raised prices and ensured that manufacturing is spread over several sites so logistics should be easier this year and beyond.

Critically too, demand is strong here and in overseas markets, which account for around 60 per cent of sales. Hornby is backed by Phoenix Asset Management, which owns 75 per cent of the company and sees itself as a long-term, supportive shareholder.

MIDAS VERDICT: Hornby shares were more than £1 a decade ago. Today, they are 42p. The stock should recover strongly from here. Davis is highly experienced, the company has been transformed under his tutelage and oldfashioned hobbies have come back into fashion. Small companies with large shareholders can be hit by share price volatility but, for long-term investors, Hornby is a buy.
Posted at 20/12/2021 14:45 by clocktower
Well HOLTS as I assume you are in the business I trust you have had a very successful time recently and it also seems to me having studied the trades over a period of time and more closely since the last RNS, we are in for bumper good news from HRN when they provide the Christmas Trading update.

Seeing the share price rise against market trend, is truly very positive and I am glad I read the last RNS as "we have chucked everything into the kitchen sink, so we can then tell investors how well we have dome, bearing in mind our order book was 35% up, as per RNS"

Seasons Greetings all but thanks HOLTS for the info provided over the past year.
Posted at 29/10/2020 21:33 by holts
I wouldnt think the Investors Champion has any real knowledge of the type of business Hornby are in .
Posted at 29/10/2020 15:05 by 1tx
Hornby is 75% owned by a couple of investment funds controlled by Phoenix asset management;these funds also own loan notes in Hornby.The writer is an investor in one of the funds.The same fund also controls Stanley Gibbons.One other unconnected fund also owns most of the remaining shares.Phoenix have invested much money here but it is a bit of a illiquid share.
Posted at 21/6/2017 11:52 by sinkyj
Sounds like a win for the home team, CT. I'm sure the board will be happy. The employees maybe less so.. "Back in April, investors Ian Alexander Anton and New Pistoia, between them owning 20 per cent of the company, called a requisitioned general meeting (RGM), with two resolutions: to boot chairman Roger Canham off the board, and to elect Anton himself in his place.Canham is also non-executive chairman at Phoenix."
Posted at 21/6/2017 09:05 by clocktower
It might take a bit of time to sink in with some investors but the board have done a good job and re-established its business with smaller retailers rather than just focusing on big box movers that want you to work for nothing. If the product sells they will not want to miss out on the product even if they have to pay the asking price.

The brand alone is money in the bank imo, I am also expecting a bid at some point in time (not to far away hopefully).
Posted at 07/2/2017 09:32 by mikeroot5
Hornby trading statement covered today by Trader Tim - I have to agree not a clear update today. Mixed language. It is almost as if the BOD want investors to forget about the profit warning.
Posted at 17/2/2016 20:38 by spob
Paul Scott wrote on Feb 10 ....

Hornby (LON:HRN)

Share price: 39.6p (down 51.1% today)
No. shares: 55.0m
Market cap: £21.8m

Just a bit of catch-up first;

I reported here on 18 Jun 2015 about Hornby's £15m equity fundraising at 95p, and how amazed I was that it had been possible to raise fresh funding in what was effectively a rescue refinancing, to get the bank off the hook. Sure enough, the investors who backed that 95p fundraising are looking unwise now, and indeed looked unwise at the time too.

In my report of 12 Aug 2015 I noted the non-specific but generally positive-sounding trading update, and the move from the main listing, to AIM (a sensible move for a company of this size, in my view), concluding that the shares (at 107.7p) were too high, given that the turnaround was not cemented yet. Risk:reward was all wrong at that price - with shareholders being asked to pay up-front for what was then only a tentative turnaround.

Interim results on 8 Dec 2015 look pretty awful, I didn't report on them at the time, but am just looking at them now. It was clear from the interim numbers that the turnaround plan was not working, and once again Hornby slipped into losses - £3.4m for H1, and that's before adjustments, exceptionals, etc. Once again however, management peppered the narrative with optimistic noises about the outlook.

Profit warning - here we are today, and it's clear the wheels are coming off. Clearly a serious profit warning, to have triggered a fall in share price of over 50% today, on top of the drift downwards in price since Aug 2015.

UK sales performance seems to have fallen off a cliff in Jan 2016, which looks very strange to me;

In the UK the Group saw a strong sales performance in the key November and December period as sales opportunities were maximised in the run up to Christmas. Like for like sales in this period were up 17% overall year on year, though this masks some volatility within the period. However, subsequent trading since the start of the New Year has been in stark contrast, with a disappointing response to January product promotions combined with poor underlying sales resulting in negative year on year revenue growth and sales for the month being substantially below expectations. While we are expecting performance in February and March to improve on January, it will not reach previously anticipated levels.

Something just doesn't stack up here, to my mind. I can't recall ever coming across a company that is achieving +17% LFL sales, and then suddenly plunges into negative sales the following month. One explanation might be if some exceptional one-off sales were achieved in Nov-Dec. I think the company needs to elaborate on this, because it looks very odd indeed to me - there must be some other factor to cause such a plunge in sales, which is not being disclosed (yet).

International trading has also had continued disruption, although they are trying to make it sound as if the worst is behind them (reassurances which we've heard quite a lot in the past too);

As disclosed at our interims, there has been a significant reorganisation of the management and distribution operations of the European subsidiaries. The impact of this has been that trading in the international businesses was disrupted last autumn as the restructuring took place. Hornby is now through the main period of major disruption. Improved sales in the last two months have reflected the changes that have been made to the logistics, stock handling and distribution operations and like-for-like sales across December and January combined were up 5%. Despite this being the first positive like for like sales performance this financial year, this is still significantly behind the Board's previous expectations.

The key sentence above is the last one.

Guidance on loss for this year - helpfully the company does give some figures to enable shareholders assess the damage;

In total the Group is now expecting to report an underlying loss before tax in the range of £5.5m - £6.0m, which represents a substantial setback in our recovery plan for the business.

With a £3.4m H1 underlying loss, this means that H2 is also loss-making, to the tune of £2.1m to £2.6m. Plus there will be all sorts of exceptionals on top of that. Looks pretty grim to me. As an aside, I think companies that make a great song & dance about having a turnaround plan, and give it a silly name, as if it were some kind of separate entity, often seem to come unstuck. When actually, turning a business around is all about starting to manage it well, instead of badly.

Bank covenants - these are under pressure again, despite the £15m equity fundraising in Jun 2015. With one failed attempt at turning the company around already in place, I imagine that the conversations with the bank will probably have a much harder edge this time.

As a result the Directors consider there to be a risk that the Group will breach a covenant of their banking facility in March 2016. The Group has enjoyed a long and supportive relationship with its lender, with whom it is currently in discussions.

Having a long and supportive relationship with a bank means precisely nothing. It only takes someone at regional office to get a fright on, and over-rule (and replace) the friendly local manager, and all of a sudden your banking relationship has gone out of the window. I've experienced that situation personally whilst an FD in the 1990s, so ever since have never relied on any banking relationship.

Outlook - this sounds like a management team who are not in control of the business, and don't really know what's going on (which reinforces what I already thought);

The Directors are continuing to execute the Group's turnaround strategy. At the same time, the Board is now analysing the causes and consequences arising from this poor start to the new calendar year. We will update the market on the Board's progress and our revised expectations for the financial outlook for the business in due course.

My opinion - if I held shares in this, I'd have sold with the lousy interim results in Dec 2015, at over double the current price. If I'd somehow missed the obvious need to sell in Dec 15, then I would definitely sell this morning.

Bank covenants in danger of being breached just 7 months after a substantial rescue fundraising, is a complete disaster. I know it's easy to criticise, but management really don't seem to know what they're doing, and don't seem to have basic control over the business, and its supply chain.

It's still heavily loss-making, has problem bank debt, and no doubt a shareholder register who must be asking themselves whether it's time to just pull out, rather than throwing more good money after bad?

As things stand right now, I'd say this share is uninvestable, so it's gone onto the Bargepole List, as being too high risk. The trouble is, after making positive noises for some time now, about the turnaround, yet delivering dismal results (and publicly saying that they don't really know why current trading is so poor!), then who would have confidence in management to continue their attempts to turn around the business?

So the danger is that the next fundraising could be at a massive discount, hence diluting away existing holders. Even if I did think the turnaround looks promising (which I don't), then I would wait for someone else to refinance the company first, and only invest once the banking covenants were sorted, etc. Why take the risk of being heavily diluted in the next fundraising? It wouldn't surprise me if the next equity fundraising has to be done at say 10-15p. Or below, who knows? When a company runs out of money, and has its bank breathing down its neck, then you could argue that the existing equity has nil value. The company will only survive if new finance is raised, and it's then up to the new financiers to name their price (which if they have any sense, will be as low as possible).

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Posted at 10/2/2016 19:08 by arthur_lame_stocks
The problem is will they be able to get another RI away so soon after the last one has burnt investors? I think this has further to fall, even if it bounces a bit from here.
Posted at 19/5/2015 15:45 by crbema
Hornby Plc (LON:HRN)‘s stock had its “add” rating reaffirmed by equities research analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday. They currently have a GBX 100 ($1.57) target price on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s price target would suggest a potential upside of 4.28% from the stock’s previous closeShares of Hornby Plc (LON:HRN) opened at 99.2400 on Tuesday. Hornby Plc has a 1-year low of GBX 58.6620 and a 1-year high of GBX 100.0000. The stock’s 50-day moving average is GBX 89.31 and its 200-day moving average is GBX 80.76. The company’s market cap is £38.87 million.

Hornby PLC is a United Kingdom-based company, engaged in the development, production and supply of hobby and toy products. The Company offers train sets such as Analogue Train Sets and Digital Train Sets.. Under the Locomotive section, the Company offers Steam Locomotives, Diesel and Electric Locomotives, Digital Locomotives with sound, TTS Digital Sound Locomotives, DCC Ready Locomotives, DCC Fitted Locomotives, Limited Edition Locomotives, as well as Thomas and Friends Locomotives

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