Horizonte Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[maverick247] 06/1/2018 09:47

Would be npv increase yes

[twigs3] 05/1/2018 22:14

Don’t think you did unless I did as well :-)

[strow] 05/1/2018 22:04

Exactly-maybe I misread :-)

[twigs3] 05/1/2018 22:02

Some huge late reported sells or buys over 16m! Strow no way imo 0.1 % would add $50m per year, maybe add to NPV?

[strow] 05/1/2018 17:31

Rapid dave-kudos for your like from the company on twitter
can you point me in the direction of where i can find the info that you presented re when the grade increases by 0.1% at Araguia that the free cash flow increases by $50m per annum ? thanks

[cf456] 05/1/2018 15:28

Quite a few dip buyers adding today by the looks of it.

[jailbird] 05/1/2018 11:48

Playing with the MAs againIt could drop to 4.35 this time , this is the 50MA before it triggers buyers again to move it up

[twigs3] 05/1/2018 10:08

iii) Net Present Value (NPV): If a target company has completed a feasibility study and is nearing production, then, the fair NPV has normally been established. This figure is usually provided in the feasibility study or on the company’s website. The NPV is a value calculated by summing all of a project’s expected future cash inflows and outflows then discounting them back to present-day values using a discount rate that reflects the time value of money. It is best to use a 12% discount rate when performing this calculation. In many ways NPV is similar to DCF. Investors should look for targets with share prices less than 30% of NPV per share.

By comparing the reserve value and DCF/NPV to the EV, investors can determine if there is enough upside from the current stock price in the event of a takeover. Investors should buy the target stock at a low enough price to allow for the 38% -54% average takeover premium to market.

[twigs3] 05/1/2018 09:52

Looking at other mining companies that have delivered FS the market cap appears to be about 30%-50% of NPV of project, so if we have a NPV of 400m we could be priced at
9-14p on delivery of FS, some way off that price yet so close,so as salmonn says we will just have to be patient.

[cf456] 05/1/2018 09:48

"Remember how the #ARS PEA for BKM moved the price 5x in the run up to the release? @horizontePLC #HZM is fully funded to complete a PEA on Tier 1 Vermelho that was historically production ready for 46ktpa #Nickel & 2.5ktpa #Cobalt - little to no value is in the price for Vermelho"

[salmonn1] 05/1/2018 00:37

The value of HZM as expressed by its share price is going to be pretty fluid until everything is in place to build a mine. I don't really understand this, but even if the share price were to spike on its anticipated value before finance and construction was in place would anyone be able to sell a reasonable amount of shares without the price falling? My understanding is that HZM is worth the nickel it can sell minus its costs. And at present we don't know what that is hence a volatile share price I first invested in Feb' 2014 and from the GAP deal onwards I'm more and more convinced that HZM will make it to be a working mine paying a dividend, and the share price eventually will reflect this. Or it will be bought out, my preference, for what the market judges that to be. We just have to be patient.

[jailbird] 04/1/2018 22:53

thanks guys...you have calming affect on me..on a nightshift..so more grumpy than usual

[maverick247] 04/1/2018 22:31

Once BFS out id say as if its in line with expectation and nickel plays ball finance should be peanuts as its low vs other projects capex ive seen

[strow] 04/1/2018 22:06

Once finance is in place for Araguia is when the BS valuation will stop

[maverick247] 04/1/2018 21:48

He knows alot actually.Company should be £100m on assets but if the market is behind the curve not much he can doAIM companies cant generally raise at premiums pre major derisking steps such as BFS, permitting, licenses etc.Value outs though so wether market lags or not is point in timeWe have now two tier 1 assets Regarding Verhelmo PFS Its already been through full feasibility and VALE had made a construction decision market dynamics changed and was put on holdThe reason HZM are doing a new PEA/scoping on it is they can change the variables factoring in Araguaia components and reducing output ramp up etc to enhance economics The deal looks to be a masterstroke but its somewhat made some forget about what an outstanding project Araguaia isMovements in share price between 4-5p level to me are immaterial given i expect 12p+ here by year end Thats just my view anyway

[jailbird] 04/1/2018 21:03

What does JM know about valuation....he said HZM should be 100m mkt cap by end of year...that has gone
Yes maybe his hands are tied, but agrees to raise finances at 2p and 3.5p..if he believes Co is worth more, than he should value it higher on finanacing.


Vermelho is still in PFS stage..so needs to be de-risked just like Araguia has.

vermelho is 12-18 months away yet on my workings.


We believe a bid may come at some point, but I wonder whether that may not happen until Vermelho has been BFS'd now.

HZM will be worth multiples once production nears.

I guess you can tell i am not pleased with the fall in the share price, but these are affects of the dilution for the acquisition and working capital.

Nickel is up again too

[cf456] 04/1/2018 17:33

CEO Jeremy Martin reckons that the recent Vermelho acquisition can put "many multiples" on the current share price.

(from 3:30)

Any dip at the current level has surely got to be seen as a buying opportunity, especially when the CEO views the shares as having multi-bag potential.

[cf456] 04/1/2018 15:45

Nice dip buying opportunity as the price pulls back.

Much easier to buy on the dips when there is more stock around than to chase the spike.

The HZM share price is going a lot higher in 2018 as the story unfolds.

[maverick247] 04/1/2018 15:36

With regard to phillipines that is lower grade higher cost pig iron nickel so not sure how high an impact that supply would have on price

[salmonn1] 04/1/2018 15:08

Indonesia and the Philippines nickel supply will always be there in the background, which is why I can't be quite as optimistic as some. But it's worth remembering that ore grades are lowering and China may well be prepared to limit NPI to improve it's air pollution (It might already have done so this winter). For me the most important thing to look at when HZM's FS is published is the cost of production. A low enough cost of production will justify mine construction what ever happens in Indonesia/Philippines. And as a VERY rough estimate, if two mines, Araguaia and GAP gives us ten years of almost 3% nickel ore then adding Vermelho should give us another five, giving at least 15 years of around 3% saprolite. Nothing is a given but a working mine is surely worth well north of 5p a share whatever happens to the nickel ore supply side in the future.

[jailbird] 04/1/2018 14:54

I thought 6p would be resistance to break but it is taking time to get there

[maverick247] 04/1/2018 12:01

Personally dont believe that BMI forecast at allUBS have $14k/t forecast for 2018 Importance is of where nickel is forecast to be when HZM produce and thats likely to be in region of 18-20k/t

[twigs3] 04/1/2018 12:00

Someone selling again? 4.73 to buy.

[ronconomics] 04/1/2018 09:51

They seem to mix short intermediate and long term in the headlines at any rate.

[twigs3] 04/1/2018 09:47

BMI never seem to get it right, last year they said th in there report !
Unfortunately, the picture does not look much better beyond 2017 — in fact, BMI expects the nickel price to trend downward and average just $9,000 by 2021