Horizon Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 29/4/2019 13:29

Kestelmill. I wish I knew. That phrase always annoys me. The impairment takes the gloss off the figures but now that is out of the way things should improve greatly if they can control their outgoings. The Business Week article is encouraging and I shall continue to hold for the long term IHT benefit or the ISA protected takeover, whichever comes first but no bets on which that will be.

[kestelmill] 29/4/2019 13:12

Anyone know what "current market expectations" for 2019 revenues are?

[kestelmill] 29/4/2019 13:10

Got to agree with RBonnier. Yes this latest update is more positive than the previous one but I still feel this share price is being propped up only by the prospect of HZD being acquired.

[carpingtris] 29/4/2019 13:07

hxxps://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/biomedtech/market-fails-spot-horizon-discovery%E2%80%99s-relentless-march-global-glory

[rbonnier] 29/4/2019 13:04

Run for the hills and short this stock to 130p

[seaking1] 29/4/2019 12:54

I agree it was very positive. I decided to take a profit and hope it drifts lower then buy back in. Excellent company for the future.

[kestelmill] 29/4/2019 12:37

What path to profitability do you see Carpingtris? What value would you put on the company and why?

[carpingtris] 29/4/2019 11:44

I felt it was quite positive myself :)

[kestelmill] 29/4/2019 11:02

Lots of dirty laundry coming out in the results as might be expected following departure of DD. Restatement of 2017 results due to incorrect revenue recognition (-£1.6M to revenue, -1.3M to EBITDA), Return of £1.7M cash "received in error" related to the Dharmacon acquisition, Ongoing revenue CAGR now going to be "below 10%" rather than 27.7% (no sh1t!).

Aside from that:
-growth of 16% in revenues excluding Dharmacon.
-strong growth in Applied Products from 8.7M to 15M at 81% GM. I don't think this category includes any Dharmacon
-Significant decline in services revenue (which is lower margin)
-"high single figure growth" in Dharmacon
-GMs 67.3% - big improvement driven by Dharmacon and product mix
-Adjusted EBITDA positive 0.7M. This is after £32M impairment and £1M associated with DD exit and the Abcam acquisition approach, and £8M depreciation/amortisation. Otherwise loss was £7.5M

So now we have a business with single digit % growth prospects, still making a significant loss. They'll be putting their main focus into the Applied Products section (improved eComm platform). I want to see leadership continue to attack the cost base. There's £49M per year to hack away at of R&D, sales/marketing, corporate/admin expenses. They'd have to grow revenues some 20% or so to get above the cost base.

This is more positive than the interims when sales of the core business had stagnated. I'm still looking to sell, but what price should i hold out for? Any thoughts on what a fair valuation for HZD is right now?

[seaking1] 29/4/2019 10:25

I’ve sold and am going to put back in Abcam for the time being.

[jurgenklopp] 29/4/2019 09:35

Low key response to the results:

Bad news:

"Impairment of In Vivo

During the strategic review, it became apparent that the Group's In Vivo business unit was one of the Service areas facing challenging market headwinds and that its revenue growth would not meet previous expectations. Accordingly, we have taken the decision to reset our expectations to have a more sustainable long-term growth trajectory, which has led to an impairment of £32.1m in the financial statements. This impairment is non-cash in nature and does not affect the business operations going forwards."

Good news:

Pretty much everything else !!!

[seaking1] 28/4/2019 17:12

With positive results I think it may continue on its upward journey. Pus rns May be out about share buy. If not then someone or ones has been buying under 3%

[carpingtris] 28/4/2019 16:39

How do people see tomorrow going?

[seaking1] 26/4/2019 22:24

Carpingtris. I may have got that wrong. I’m sure I read it somewhere but cannot find anything. Still will be interesting to see if their has been more fund buying or hopefully Abcam.

[srichardson8] 26/4/2019 20:40

150mn shares in issue, Invesco have lost 8.2mn shares realising around £13.5mn at (say) 165p. This vol is much greater than shown in the trading sheet for the 23rd so must have been a placement presumably at a discount. Woodward of course used to work at Invesco but the first notice of a major Invesco position, initially 5%, was in October 2014. The main Woodward Fund - that is, through his company after his exit from Invesco - started trading on July of that year so no obvious link.If one assumes this was sold to (an)other investors there must surely be an RNS to see who has picked up the stock - unless it was divided into a few blocks to smaller or new holders. But to me very positive that this has been shifted/placed so easily without disturbing the price. Tally ho(pe)!

[carpingtris] 26/4/2019 19:33

Did they? Not seen RNS.

[seaking1] 26/4/2019 15:16

ValueAct capital bought.

[mamcw] 26/4/2019 14:34

The order board is completely lopsided with buyers

[jurgenklopp] 25/4/2019 07:19

Invesco have lowered their stake by offloading 5.46% of the Company.

We really ought to be getting another RNS (hopefully) as to where this has ended up.


I think HZD could be in play.

:o)

[mamcw] 24/4/2019 17:43

No RNS around recent large trades implies a new buyer building a stake as opposed to an existing large shareholder topping up which is encouraging.

[bouleversee] 24/4/2019 16:15

Still a long way off their high. I topped up yesterday just before close so am up today and I should think just about breaking even again, having come down a lot after previous top up. Will have to motor some before I feel excited, bearing in mind no dividend.

[carpingtris] 24/4/2019 15:37

Leading up to results or takeover?? looking good either way so far.

[jurgenklopp] 24/4/2019 11:48

The follow through from yesterday has begun.

The momentum ought to take it towards 200p as a first stop.

;o)

[seaking1] 23/4/2019 16:01

Yep, I wonder if this is the beginning of Another try by Abcam. More probably fund buying. Results on the 29th are expected to be good.