Horizon Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[jurgenklopp] 13/6/2019 15:06

This got pushed down to around 138p earlier today but has staged something of a recovery this afternoon.

You would have thought there was a large seller out there that needs to raise funds for other reasons.

;o)

[jurgenklopp] 07/6/2019 15:35

This gives an idea of what the competition is up to and the sums of money involved.

[rambutan2] 07/6/2019 14:29

Woodford holds his stake in the gated inc fund. None of the other funds or the trust as far as i’m aware. Hence the price action.

[mamcw] 07/6/2019 13:12

Feels like WIM is in a death spiral, losing £3.5bn of St James Place money, stopping redemptions etc.

Most likely outcome is that a purchaser is found for WIM (or more precisely, WIM is ordered to sell up by the FCA to an approved purchaser to avoid a scandal), who is big enough to stabilize the situation / not forced to sell underlying holdings to meet redemptions. Could be as soon as Monday morning. Under such a scenario, HZD and other stocks will then bounce sharply.

[srichardson8] 07/6/2019 12:45

I imagine the 10% HZD holding is in this fund which is predominantly healthcare.

If the company has a decent business model and prospects backed up by future revenues then of course it should recover. This is a bit painful but hopefully only temporary.

[kestelmill] 07/6/2019 12:42

Do we know for sure that Woodford is selling it off. Are large trades going through?

[mamcw] 07/6/2019 12:40

Sadly, I think that until the Woodford stake finds a new home / he can demonstrate his situation is stabilized, HZD is likely to remain under a cloud (yes, HZD is not in the income fund, but Woodford's credibility as a fund managed is trashed at the moment, and there is a real prospect of some form of forced liquidation across his portfolio).

Great time for another opportunistic approach by Abcam, which I note has put in place a £300m acquisition finance facility and has recently appointed Numis as joint corporate broker, which is normally a sign that something is afoot.

[bouleversee] 07/6/2019 12:34

I hope you are right, jurgenklopp, as I have just topped up at £1.47. Could be the kiss of death, knowing my luck! However, I agree they are undervalued and shouldn't be tarred with the Woodford brush.

[phowdo] 07/6/2019 11:56

Its been down to sub 110p before.
But not for very long...

[jurgenklopp] 07/6/2019 11:51

Yes indeed bouleversee.

Woodford has been selling his most liquid stocks over the last day or two and the HZD price is getting clobbered just in anticipation of his holding being offered soon.

For a day trader I would suggest there is little scope to get the timing exactly right as to where the turning point will be.

However I take the view that firstly ValueAct considered HZD worth an initial large investment at 214p (if I recall correctly), secondly we are at the levels where Abcam tried a bid offering a premium (pitched at 180p) a couple of years ago, and thirdly, for any would be bidder (Abcam, Softbank or anyone else) we have a desperate seller holding 12% of the Company - a superb base from which to plan a takeover.

I am not going to get the timing exactly right but these are currently outstanding value in my opinion.

[bouleversee] 07/6/2019 11:39

kestelmill -

Surely it's the unlisted companies W. will find most difficult to shift so if he sells more of HZD, it doesn't mean he has lost faith in them, just that he needs the money to pay out those who want to sell his fund but it could make HZD bargain territory. Am tempted to top up again but is this the bottom or will it go lower?

Does he hold HZD in his income fund, though, as well as Patient Capital IT? I unfortunately hold the latter and am now losing a helluva lot.

[jurgenklopp] 07/6/2019 11:26

kestlemill

the fact that Woodford still has 12% taints the share as people will think he'll sell the holding to aid liquidity for his crumbling empire.

However, on the plus side, we have ValueAct as a strong long term supporter plus you will recall there was some large purchases by someone in the 175 ish price range a month or two back.

At the end of the day Horizon is a world leader in it's field and, had it been an American company, would be valued far higher.

It is already my largest holding but I took the opportunity yesterday to top up in the high 150s and again this morning at around 151p. A very very risky strategy by most sensible criteria but I think it's days as an independent company are numbered.

I suspect we will suddenly get an RNS that Woodford has sold his holding to someone at a premium (to whatever the current price is at the time) and there is a bid on the line.

I am trying to work out my schedule so that I am able to attend the AGM later this month.

[kestelmill] 07/6/2019 11:17

JK are you saying investors are getting out just because they think this will be another one Woodford has got wrong?

[kestelmill] 07/6/2019 11:16

We've seen this stock drop like a stone in the past on the back of large holders being determined to sell. Then it has risen sharply as soon as that is over. I am thinking Nov 2016 and March 2018. Does Woodford need to sell this though - isn't it the unlisted companies he will be focusing on shifting?
If HZD goes down to say, £1.20 on the back of a big seller offloading it will likely rise up again so worth a punt at that kind of level in my opinion.

[pjj71] 06/6/2019 15:15

too dangerous to short.. Maybe ABCAM will take the stake and relaunch its bid... also valueact are the largest shareholder now...

[srichardson8] 06/6/2019 12:40

Quite right jurgen. There is no market liquidity, some institution needs to agree that this is undervalued or it is fodder for an obvious short.

[jurgenklopp] 06/6/2019 08:54

Woodford still holding 12.5% of this company has resulted in the disappointing share price over the last week or so.

ValueAct or another institution really ought to pick up that holding as they can get it from a distressed seller at a very attractive price.

[bouleversee] 13/5/2019 17:17

And sometimes against it!

[kestelmill] 13/5/2019 16:49

Thank you for your insights JK.

The general market malaise last few days will be having some impact on the share price It does tend to rise and fall with the wider market.

[kestelmill] 13/5/2019 10:50

No problem CT, apols if that was overly defensive. I feel I've pointed out some useful stuff from the co. reports, not here to be negative.

[jurgenklopp] 13/5/2019 10:18

Good morning chaps.

ValueAct originally bought their first tranche at around 215p if I recall correctly. They have been adding since.

Abcam tried a cheeky offer last year around the 180p mark.

Woodford has been offloading (mainly to ValueAct) - a very good thing in my opinion.

The purchase of Dharmacon is perceived to be a very astute deal.

The update after the recent full year results looks very promising.

If HZD was listed in America I suspect it would be valued at a far higher price than the current market cap.

Either the performance of the Company (as it turns profitable) or the comparative low rating compared to US peers (thereby attracting a bidder) will transform the share price.

I am confident of seeing a move up to previous highs (circa 250-260p) this year just on prospects alone. Any bid will see this north of 300p.

[carpingtris] 13/5/2019 09:43

Ok cool, i try to look at positives myself, if i kept thinking about the negatives i'd never buy anything, lol

[kestelmill] 13/5/2019 09:30

I am long to the tune of 15,110 shares, more than entitled to an opinion, and yes it is on the negative side based on the data. I'm here in case I learn a thing or two. If you don't like my opinion feel free to ignore but please don't troll or try to censor me. If you only want to hear from people who have the same opinion as you that is weak. I've asked ppl on this board what they think a fair valuation is for HZD - no one has posted any kind of valuation, no target price, no nothing.

[carpingtris] 10/5/2019 10:08

Kestel -

Do you hold any position here? if not then why keep turning up. And if you do then why not just sell as your always so negative.

[seaking1] 10/5/2019 10:05

Waiting for a drop ,well I am anyway.