wowza steve that is an astonishing article in the FT as well! THanks much appreciated |
The panic is due to the possibility of US import tariffs on the countries where the gold has been minted |
About time that the gold etf’s are shown to be a fraud.Bernie Maddock an amateur compared to the gold etf market !
Perhaps gold can’t be loaded because staff working from home on a four day week !, |
 FT Headline: Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London shortage.
Gold Delivery Times from Bank of England/ London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Now 4 to 8 WEEKS!
Deliveries of Gold Bullion from the Bank of England and the London Bullion Market Association have suddenly gone from just a few days to now four (4) to eight (8) WEEKS for people to get their physical Gold!
This may be the biggest news in the Gold Market since then-UK-Prime Minister Gordon Brown pre-announced the sale of half the UK's gold. This is serious; perhaps VERY serious, for the Bankers, especially the Bank of England.
This news began with a story in the Financial Times of London (FT) titled "Gold Stockpiling in New York Leads to London Shortage." The story revealed that the wait time to withdraw gold from the Bank of England (BoE) has risen sharply as fears of Trump Tariffs drive shipments to the U.S.A.
Why this is serious is because, according to the Bank of England's December 1, 2024 report, they hold 5365 metric tons of Gold, which is the equivalent of 172.5 Million Ounces.
Yet the BoE has apparently "Leased-out" a LOT more Gold than they are holding.
Investors know that leasing out more than Banks hold is the engine of the (endless) supply of "Paper" Gold.
The banks sell/lease the same "ounce" of Gold to hundreds of different buyers, HOPING they won't demand delivery. The Bank can pocket the fees on all those non-existent ounces of gold as long as not too many people demand physical delivery of it.
One of the results of this arbitrage is that Bankers can keep the price of Gold SUPPRESSED because the shear volume of "paper" gold sales dwarfs the sales of physical-delivery Gold.
Is Bank of England DEFAULTING?
According to the article in the FT "A surge of shipments to the US has lead to a shortage in London, as Traders amass an $82 Billion stockpile in New York over fears of Trump Administration Tariffs. Then, the kicker: "The wait to withdraw bullion stored in the Bank of England vault has risen from a few days, to four to eight weeks, according to people familiar with the process as the Central Bank STRUGGLES to keep up with demand."
Sources in the field say "people can't get their hands on Gold because so much has been shipped to New York . . . and the rest is stuck in the Que. Liquidity in the London market has been . . . diminished." according to one Executive in the Bullion field.
The problem here is simple: You either have the Gold, or you don't.
Worsening the situation is that the BoE DECLINED TO COMMENT.
This is now confirmation that the Bank of England is in big trouble.
The FT article goes on to report "Since November's U.S. election, Gold Traders and Financial Institutions have moved 393 Metric tons" which isn't even ten percent of what the Bank of England CLAIMS it has. So why the four week to eight week delay now??????
These Gold shipments have reportedly been delivered to the COMEX Commodity Exchange vaults in New York, driving up COMEX inventory levels nearly 75% to 926 Tons, the highest level since August, 2022.
The FT goes on to report "Total Gold flows into the US could be far higher than the COMEX numbers reflect because there are likely to have been many additional shipments to private vaults in New York owned by HSBC and JP Morgan." Both of those banks also declined to comment.
Market players are asking a simple question: If the Bank of England publicly reported they held 5365 Metric Tons of Gold in their Vaults as of December 1, and only 393 tons have been shipped to New York, why is the Bank having trouble delivering Gold for four to eight weeks?
This is one of the biggest stories in the Gold Market in maybe 30 years. This situation could expose a hideous reality: What if the Bank of England has NO GOLD?
First, where did it go, and second, this could utterly smash the entire "paper" market for Gold. After all, who in their right mind will buy "paper" gold by believing anyone claiming to be holding tons of Gold if the Bank of England lied about __theirs???__
The "paper" Gold market would likely implode if it comes out that BoE has no Gold left. An implosion of the paper market would free the Gold market from "paper" influence, and send the price of the precious metal skyrocketing.
Many, many people around the world are taking serious notice of this situation. Very hard questions are now being asked of the Bank of England, and a LOT of "paper" gold investors are now wondering if they will ever get the gold they "bought" but allowed the BoE to hold? |
Silver $30.97.
Trying for the 4th time in the past few weeks to break $31. If successful this time we could see some fireworks in due course ....!!
It was $34.70 odd back in October, then coshed to sub $29 and hit every time it tries to rise since. So it's fallen way behind this rise in gold to a near ath. |
This might sound a bit green but can a company not hedge against a potential rise in production costs?There is instruments in place to hedge against almost anything and would be surprised if nowt available for AISCI see on every miner as price of gold/silver rises as do costs. When it falls over time so does the AISC. Surely other than inflationary pressures or political , forex issues the AISC should remain steady with margins staying consistent ?I agree market is bashing HOC same as it is any company that makes schoolboy errors. Hopefully lessons learnt and we can push up to fair value and get our act together. |
Market value 30% down on AISC up +10-15%
Guidance Production for 25: reaffirmed at upto 378k oz
Does the drop seem reasonable? Absolutely not when you consider there’s a dividend on the way and AISC has been over-baked (to ensure this doesn’t happen again)
Message sent to the directors? Absolutely! And that should be a good thing for those that manage to stay the course going forward..
Market currently smashing the shares because they can.. pushing those who are locked in to maximum pain.. then shares will be transferred to those that will be accumulating and then they will recover as if by magic..
The games never change (just the ticker)
Gla |
"Stress in the precious metals markets continues on. With the "latest news being that gold withdrawals from the Bank of England, which normally take a few days, are now facing 4-8 week delays."
Maybe the bank will have to ask usa for the gold gordon brun sold them cheap! I don't think IOU's will cut mustard anymore, no doubt bank will bribe the owners with enhanced cash payments. |
Maybe 160 is the target before normality settles in. |
Mining companies are completely unloved at the moment. Watched Don Durret's YouTube channel earlier, he loves it! HOC so, so cheap and a multi bagger he reckons. The bears have their claws into HOC at the moment though, Marshall Wave increasing their short to 1% on the 27th Jan. |
I saw that and thought FRES is going to get hit…..but wasn't the case.
My read on this is that AISC improvements and au/ag price increases are the only way they will grow earnings in short to medium term. |
FRES Q4 & FY24 production announced today incl guidance for FY25 and expected for FY26. FRES production is in decline unlike HOC. Elephants can't run!
............FY23 ....FY24 ....FY25 ....FY26
silver ..... 56.......56 ....49-56 ....47-53
gold .......610 .....631 ...525-580 ..515-565
SEO ........105 .....107 ....91-102 ...88-98 |
Gold production is being ramp up to take advantage of high price of gold boosting profits. |
Cheeky top up. Thank you |
It has reached its buying point ??? |
Eduardo Landin has shot himself in the foot along with holders here:
31-May-24 Buy Eduardo Landin 183.00 GBX 72,500 503,200
Question now is how long will it take him to take an axe to costs?
Analysts have cut FY24 EPS from 29c to 24.5c. Net Debt $216 m.
FY25 EPS from 49c to 37c. Net debt from cash positive to net debt $85 m.
No warning prior to Wednesday's bombshell so market has had a hissy fit falling every day since.
Now over sold but a message has been sent to Landin. |
hxxps://youtu.be/1_rvVTuGRNE
Worth a listen ladies and gents ;) |
Nicer to see they ain't piling out. |
I think there's a few buyers on the sidelines . Few days in positive territory will signal end of the rout. |
Would be nice for Eduardo Ladin to explain the cost hike clearly and publish aisc forecast out to 2030.
If I have confidence in roughly what the costs would be going forward id be able to say I think Hoc is very undervalued. |
Would be nice to see directors pile in at this low price.... |
Flying. Reckon 3 quid is still on the cards for end Feb although may be prudent to extend that timescale by a month. |
Must me a hedge as it is so very small. IMO! DYOR.
Will take another "view" once next results are out with detail to see how they intend on countering this AISC spike. A sale of the problem child may help! DYOR |
Not sure Wallace would have closed out they've been short by varying degrees for years. I wonder if they have actually made any money or have used the position as some sort of hedge. |
Shorts? is that it? <1%? IMO if there was more risk on downside you would see that up much, much higher....so I agree with Hunter & others, this is an overblown reaction & March results should hopefully provide better forward looking guidance...DYOR |
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