Cliff, don't know about a triangle, more like a tangent al drop. |
And who recommended the hedging, was it their advisors jpm. Not such a smart move in these days of a weak dollar, unless you are jpm |
i think what has softened the results is the hedging
'“On 12 April 2023, the Company hedged 27,600 ounces of 2024 gold production at $2,100 per ounce, on 19 June 2023 the Company hedged 150,000 ounces of 2025, 2026 and 2027 gold production (50,000 per year) at $2,117, $2,167 and $2,206 per ounce respectively, and on 14 December 2023 the Company hedged 100,000 ounces of 2024 gold production using gold collars with a strike put of $2,000 per ounce and a strike call of $2,252 per ounce.”'
this suggests that 50,000 ounces are hedged for 2025 at $2,117, 50,000 ounces for 2026 at $2,167 and 50,000 ounces for 2027 at $2,206. Has there been more hedging since then? Hoc won't benefit from higher prices if most of its production is hedged at lower prices. |
What a fantastic opportunity to pile in at around 193p!
pete |
 Hochschild Mining Meets 2024 Production Goal, Sets Higher 2025 Target
Jan 22, 202507:55 GMT
By Adam Whittaker
Hochschild Mining's 2024 production was in line with company guidance after gold production rose on year but silver production fell.
The South America-focused precious-metals miner said Wednesday that it produced 245,013 ounces of gold in 2024, compared with 186,091 ounces it produced the year prior. Silver production fell to 8.5 million ounces, compared with 9.5 million ounces the prior year.
On a gold equivalent basis, the London-based company produced 347,374 ounces which was in line with it guided range of 343,000 to 360,000 ounces. This was partly due to a stronger-than-expects performance at its Inmaculada mine in Peru, the company said.
Equivalent ounces is an industry metric that includes by-products to show the company's overall output.
All-in sustaining costs--a metric reflecting the full cost of gold mining--is expected to be 5% to 10% above its guided range of between $1,510 to $1,550 per gold equivalent ounce. This is due to slower-than-expected ramp-up of production at its Mara Rosa mine in Brazil, and higher-than-forecast inflation in Argentina, the miner said.
For 2025, the miner set an overall production target of 350,000-378,000 gold equivalent ounces and an all-in sustaining cost target of $1,587-$1,687 per gold equivalent ounce.
Write to Adam Whittaker at adam.whittaker@wsj.com |
from earlier this morning:
Hochschild Mining Cut to Sector Perform From Outperform by RBC
Price Target reduced from 300p to 260p |
4*
Hochschild Mining issued an upbeat production report for 2024 this morning, although interestingly the share price has slumped 14% this morning suggesting some “sell the fact” trading and a near term period of profit taking/consolidation is unfolding. Nevertheless the business is performing well. In terms of output there was positive full year attributable production of 347,374 gold equivalent ounces in line with guidance up around 16% from 300,749 gold equivalent ounces in 2023...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/HOC/899 |
haha, good call and well said....DYOR, but looks like small volumes, over reaction, move on....DYOR |
Be interesting to see if the brokers and analysts maintain their targets and recommendations Over reaction and over expectations, stop losses hit and I'd imagine a little short selling has added to the drop, similar to August on impressive production numbers followed by a drop in share price we will recover.Rather than glass half full or half empty, I'm of the opinion that having a glass at all is a big positive.Ok, back to bed. Zzzzz |
looks like market is buying back in to the over-reaction IMO....DYOR... |
hxxps://x.com/rookwood52/status/1881989886195982693 chart |
I think an over reaction in share price .
Ironic that gold almost all time high and the prospects of going higher !
Gold increases in value because of inflation and HOC is not immune! Not checked local currencies against the dollar.Could be significant
A pity about the hedge but does drop out over next eighteen months.
Still a lowly pe |
Unexpected reaction must say . Big gap to close now too |
Around £2would be a fair hit, expect we will all be listening at 2pm! |
Analyst call will be a trigger as to whether market believe the story still. If so it will recover to back over £2, but may not end up break even on day, let's see....DYOR as ever... |
Oracle seems a fair price hit to me see last post |
Silver is already included, they are predicting for 2025 350-378 gold equivalent ounces so say 360 total if lucky, costs 1587to 1687 so assume the top figure, gold price achieved if luck 2687 so $1000 higher so $360k profit, less the 25k hedge and tax turned into pounds so I still guess around £200k profit 2025 IF PM price is around here IF production stays up and IF costs don’t inexplicably rise further, hence forward PE around 5 in my sums. It is a fair hit as with 5-10% cost inc profits will be hit 10%+ by this next year but then if gold manages to rise 10% we will be back where we were |
Agreed, market reaction seems odd, maybe we are missing something?! DYOR |
Yeah sotolo, 200m after tax profit is still very much on the cards. Altho a smaller probability than before these costs are out.
To keep prospective that would, at a valuation of 1b, be a pe ratio of only 5. Which as crazy cheap as it sounds, Hoc still has two very low cost mines heading for production in 2-3yrs that could increase production a further 66%. Also at current gold prices the volcan project sitting on our books is also very valuable. |
at interims 1,510 to 1,550 guidance for 2024, so it is a really small increase at the top 24 to bottom range 25 of only $37 but 9% top end to top end....
production guidance is up but maybe not enough to be exciting.
Net Debt is nearly below $200m and falling
So on all that basis, IMO that is a massive over-reaction to be nearly off 20% DYOR....
BUT management need to sort their comms/broker relationships out & tell market how they aim to get AISC back down to 2024 levels |
Shock is the correct word in the unexpected sudden increase on costs made worse by lack of credible mitigation released so far. |
so should be making c.$1,100 based on that c.$1,600 AISC & PoG $2,700 so c/£350m IMO/DYOR on Gold, add in silver....haven't worked the rest out yet, but market will work it out I am sure....& look to find out why the AISC "shock" which is poor management IMO & of the market as it obviously is nowhere near where it should be.
Am holding on, but the Board need to work out how to bring that AISC down and communicate properly to the market |
“On 12 April 2023, the Company hedged 27,600 ounces of 2024 gold production at $2,100 per ounce, on 19 June 2023 the Company hedged 150,000 ounces of 2025, 2026 and 2027 gold production (50,000 per year) at $2,117, $2,167 and $2,206 per ounce respectively, and on 14 December 2023 the Company hedged 100,000 ounces of 2024 gold production using gold collars with a strike put of $2,000 per ounce and a strike call of $2,252 per ounce.” |
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